Do Vacant Properties Kill Neighborhoods? An Agent-Based Simulation of Property Abandonment - 3 views

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  #1 Metropolitan Institute on 04 Jan 12

   

  Abstract: "Buffalo is among the cities with the highest vacancy rates in the US. Between 2000 and 2009, the number of tax foreclosure properties at the City's tax auction (in rem) increased. By 2009, the City owned more than 7000 vacant properties. In response to its vacancy epidemic, the City of Buffalo adopted an aggressive demolition plan with the goal of removing 5000 structures in five years. This effort, however, seemed futile since increased demolition efforts during the past few years have not resulted in a reduction in the total number of vacancies. High vacancy poses difficulties for neighborhood revitalization, management, public safety, and the delivery of vital services. The vacancy crisis is aggravated by continued job and population loses brought on by deindustrialization.
  
  Vacant houses, buildings and land influence neighborhoods dynamically. For example, Yin (2009) concluded that homeowners decide whether to invest in or abandon their properties based on neighborhood conditions and other considerations (Yin, 2009). Silverman, Yin, and Patterson (under review) argued that the vacant properties in cities like Buffalo represent a permanent fixture of the urban mileu. Once established, they quickly spread in distressed neighborhoods impacted by job and population loss. The presence of these properties, which the authors label zombie properties, accelerates the downward trajectory of neighborhoods. In response to the growing problem of vacancy properties in declining cities scholars have forwarded a variety of policy recommendations. Bernt (2009) emphasizes the importance of new governance structures and public-private partnerships. Reese (2006) adds that substantial investment from state and federal government is necessary to mediate the impacts of property abandonment in cities. Shilling and Logan (2008) recommend that declining cities adopt green infrastructure in order to right size.
  
  This study uses the agent-based approach to simulate how different types of owners (homeowners, speculative investors, and the city) decide on to the disposition of their property in response to neighborhood conditions and other property owners' decisions. After the model is validated, scenarios will be developed and simulated to demonstrate different policy effects (e.g. stepped up demolish, land banking, green infrastructure, rehabilitation, etc…).
  
  The analysis will focus on a subset of neighborhoods in Buffalo. About two-third of the in rem properties are located on the city's East Side. This study will focus on the Fillmore District, which is located in this part of the city. This area has the largest concentration of in rem properties in Buffalo. Data used in the analysis include: parcel data and sales data from 2000 to 2009; in rem data for 2006 and 2010; crime data for 1996, 2006, and 2009 ; and HUD aggregate USPS address vacancy data. The model will reveal the dynamics of neighborhood decline and assists cities and policymakers in designing planning tools to address property vacancies. "
  
  Yin, Li and Robert Silverman. "Do Vacant Properties Kill Neighborhoods? An Agent-Based Simulation of Property Abandonment." Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 13-16, 2011.

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Abstract: "Buffalo is among the cities with the highest vacancy rates in the US. Between 2000 and 2009, the number of tax foreclosure properties at the City's tax auction (in rem) increased. By 2009, the City owned more than 7000 vacant properties. In response to its vacancy epidemic, the City of Buffalo adopted an aggressive demolition plan with the goal of removing 5000 structures in five years. This effort, however, seemed futile since increased demolition efforts during the past few years have not resulted in a reduction in the total number of vacancies. High vacancy poses difficulties for neighborhood revitalization, management, public safety, and the delivery of vital services. The vacancy crisis is aggravated by continued job and population loses brought on by deindustrialization. <br /> <br /> Vacant houses, buildings and land influence neighborhoods dynamically. For example, Yin (2009) concluded that homeowners decide whether to invest in or abandon their properties based on neighborhood conditions and other considerations (Yin, 2009). Silverman, Yin, and Patterson (under review) argued that the vacant properties in cities like Buffalo represent a permanent fixture of the urban mileu. Once established, they quickly spread in distressed neighborhoods impacted by job and population loss. The presence of these properties, which the authors label zombie properties, accelerates the downward trajectory of neighborhoods. In response to the growing problem of vacancy properties in declining cities scholars have forwarded a variety of policy recommendations. Bernt (2009) emphasizes the importance of new governance structures and public-private partnerships. Reese (2006) adds that substantial investment from state and federal government is necessary to mediate the impacts of property abandonment in cities. Shilling and Logan (2008) recommend that declining cities adopt green infrastructure in order to right size. <br /> <br /> This study uses the agent-based approach to simulate how different types of owners (homeowners, speculative investors, and the city) decide on to the disposition of their property in response to neighborhood conditions and other property owners' decisions. After the model is validated, scenarios will be developed and simulated to demonstrate different policy effects (e.g. stepped up demolish, land banking, green infrastructure, rehabilitation, etc…). <br /> <br /> The analysis will focus on a subset of neighborhoods in Buffalo. About two-third of the in rem properties are located on the city's East Side. This study will focus on the Fillmore District, which is located in this part of the city. This area has the largest concentration of in rem properties in Buffalo. Data used in the analysis include: parcel data and sales data from 2000 to 2009; in rem data for 2006 and 2010; crime data for 1996, 2006, and 2009 ; and HUD aggregate USPS address vacancy data. The model will reveal the dynamics of neighborhood decline and assists cities and policymakers in designing planning tools to address property vacancies. " <br /> <br /> Yin, Li and Robert Silverman. "Do Vacant Properties Kill Neighborhoods? An Agent-Based Simulation of Property Abandonment." Paper to be presented at the annual conference for the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning, Salt Lake City, Utah, October 13-16, 2011.</div>

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