UTS-AEI

Good example of a contentious issue. In an Australian study published today, we show that if the government were to combine taxes and subsidies on a range of foods and beverages, it could substantially improve the health of Australians and potentially free up billions in health care spending.

Dismissing people's worries as baseless, whether that's about the safety of mobile phones or fluoridated drinking water, is one of the least effective ways of communicating public health risks. Yet it is common for people to "reassure" like this, both at home and in professional roles as experts, officials or corporate managers. 1. Hose down your own outrage first 2. Respect people's fears 3. Build trust 4. Don't panic about panic 5. Your actions communicate more than your words 6. Play the long game

What's the most efficient way to communicate a large amount to a reader? We ran an experiment to find out. The results show that we must give up with senseless "football fields" comparisons and focus on finding out if a number matters or not.

Over recent years, data has become an indispensable source for journalists and news organisations, providing excellent material for investigative work as well as storytelling. This has led to the emergence of data journalism, which, broadly speaking, uses information science and analytical techniques in conjunction with journalistic workflows to produce compelling stories rooted in data. Despite the relative maturity of data journalism and the growing application of data in editorial workflows, there is still a lot to learn about the systematic, seamless and effective integration of data and computational tools in newsrooms. It is time time for a holistic assessment of this emerging field by looking deeply into the ways newsrooms across the world have adopted data in their day-to-day workflows, the formation of their data teams, their best practices for producing high quality data driven investigative work, their success and failure stories, and emerging training requirements.

Interesting perspective on communicating evidence. With controversy about science communication, facts and alternative facts hitting the headlines recently, I've been having a number of conversations with colleagues from all over the world about why science seems to be losing in the current war on reason. This isn't in the usual fringe battle fronts like creationism or flat-Earthers. It's on topics deep behind our lines, in areas like whether climate change exists or not, how many people were present at a given time at a given place and whether one man with a questionable grasp on reality should be the only source people get their news from.

House prices rise, affordability expected to worsen despite property slowdown later this year: CBA By business reporter Michael Janda Updated about 3 hours ago Auction sign on house replaced with sold sign Photo: Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart led gains for the month, quarter and year. (ABC News: Ian Cutmore) Related Story: Property investor borrowing drives credit surge Related Story: Property investors lead home loan surge Related Story: Wealthiest suburbs among most vulnerable to mortgage stress Map: Australia If you thought it was hard to get into the housing market, it may yet get worse unless the Federal Government changes tax policies to reduce investor demand. Key points: Sydney home prices up 16pc over 12 months, Melbourne up 11.8pc CBA economists call for "gradual reforms to both supply and demand issues" Bank regulator likely to intensify investor loan crackdown That is the warning of economists at Australia's biggest mortgage lender, the Commonwealth Bank.

The Sun is crossing the line that divides the reporting of conspiracy theories and the promotion of them. As the piece in question shows, it's certainly not in the business of debunking them. As a news article, it represents the sloppiest of standards. In its willingness to degrade the credibility of science in an attempt to induce profitable hysteria, it is lamentable.

The eBook contains 16 short stories about brilliant Australian research data projects that have led to real-life impacts for Australia and beyond. It is intentionally very punchy and image-led. The stories were collected during ANDS' #dataimpact campaign which ran through 2016.

As the author of this FactCheck, I was asked to review the facts on Australia's foreign aid spending from the Menzies era to 2016-17. Sir Robert Menzies was prime minister from 1949 to 1966, which is the Menzies era for present purposes. (Menzies also served as prime minister from 1939 to 1941.) I examined the evidence for and against this statement: Aid was at its highest under Menzies, at 0.5% … when per capita income was much lower. - World Vision Australia Chief Advocate Tim Costello, quoted in The Sydney Morning Herald, December 28, 2016. I found the statement to be incorrect, strictly interpreted, though Costello's broader point is valid. The ratio of Australia's aid to its gross national income has never exceeded 0.48%, and that level was achieved slightly after the conclusion of the Menzies era, in the financial year 1967-68. Below, I explain how I arrived at this conclusion, providing more detail than could be accommodated in the FactCheck itself.

We all do it in journalism. We are taught to write a headline that a) captures what the story is about, and b) captures the reader's attention. Nothing wrong with that. Where the problem comes in is if the headline misleads or misinforms. And, as is so often the case with healthcare topics, that sort of disconnect has the potential to do more harm than good.

In 1967, following riots in Detroit, Philip Meyer used survey research methods, powered by a computer, to show that college-educated people were just as likely to have rioted as high school drop outs. His story was one of the first examples of computer assisted reporting and precision journalism, in which journalists use social science methodologies to extract and tell stories. In recognition of his contribution to the area, each year's best computer-driven and precision stories are celebrated through the Philip Meyer Journalism Award. The Award's 2016 winners have just been announced, with the successful entries showcasing techniques derived from quantitative and qualitative methods, such as surveys using randomly-selected respondents, descriptive and inferential statistical analysis, social network analysis, content analysis, field experiments, and more.

Have you ever noticed that when you present people with facts that are contrary to their deepest held beliefs they always change their minds? Me neither. In fact, people seem to double down on their beliefs in the teeth of overwhelming evidence against them. The reason is related to the worldview perceived to be under threat by the conflicting data.

How statistics, and research-design have changed the face of medicine. We tend to think of medicine as a science, but for most of human history it has been scientific-ish at best. In the first episode of a three-part series, we look at the grotesque mistakes produced by centuries of trial-and-error, and ask whether the new era of evidence-based medicine is the solution.

Why probability and understanding statistical fallacies matters Some of our most important decisions are shaped by something as random as the order in which we make them. The gambler's fallacy, as it's known, affects loan officers, federal judges -- and probably you too. How to avoid it? The first step is to admit just how fallible we all are.

This is an example of imprecise communication - it's right to talk about percentage increase (rather than percentage point change) but it isn't clear what the baseline was which makes it a bit confusing (475,000/120*100 will give you the median price 3 months ago of 395833.33). Note the use of the median rather than the mean - remember why that's a sensible idea in this context! Home prices have risen by more than 20 per cent to a $475,000 median. The change in median price over the past year was up by 26.7 per cent. And compared to three years ago Cremorne prices have grown by almost 40 per cent. Look back five years and prices have increased by a mighty 70 per cent, the report revealed.

Repetition makes a fact seem more true, regardless of whether it is or not. Understanding this effect can help you avoid falling for propaganda, says psychologist Tom Stafford.

An excellent resource that links to the 'debunking handbook' - outlining ways to combat misinformation and misconceptions.

So I set out to get to the bottom of the evidence on how we respond to rational arguments. Does rationality lose out every time to irrational motivations? Or is there any hope to those of us who want to persuade because we have good arguments, not because we are handsome, or popular, or offer heavy clipboards.

Another example of news coverage over-stating the causal relationship between two things that research has demonstrated have some *association*. Good discussion of the particular headlines.

The argument is simple, and goes a bit like this. Science does not work by appeal to authority, but rather by the acquisition of experimentally verifiable evidence. Appeals to scientific bodies are appeals to authority, so should be rejected. ...If legitimate authorities are not to be consulted, presumably there is no point in having scientists around at all, as each person would need to verify any claim on their own terms and with their own resources. That would mean a speedy decline into very dark times indeed.