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How are your intuitions shaped by the immediate world around you? The importance of evidence over anecdote and considering the bigger picture! If it's hot outside, you're more likely to believe in climate change. The public perception of climate change is shaped by the weather that people experience, according to a study published yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal.

These are uncertain times. The US presidential campaign has been divisive, there is disagreement over Brexit, jitters over China's economy and technology is disrupting traditional labour markets. What is the best way to weather all that uncertainty?

When Ice Cream Sales Rise, So Do Homicides. Coincidence, or Will Your Next Cone Murder You?

While shark attacks are very rare, reports of shark attacks are on the rise. They have more than tripled in recent decades - from a total of 157 reports worldwide between 1970 and 1979 to a combined 661 reports from 2000 to 2009, according to the Florida Program for Shark Research (FPSR), which maintains a database of known attacks dating back to the mid-1500s. It's important to note that the increase is partly the result of an improved reporting system. But research also indicates that human population growth, increased interest in aquatic recreational activities and changes in weather and water quality play a role.

The Media Has A Probability Problem The media's demand for certainty - and its lack of statistical rigor - is a bad match for our complex world.