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Simon Knight

The margin of error: 7 tips for journalists writing about polls and surveys - 0 views

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    Journalists often make mistakes when reporting on data such as opinion poll results, federal jobs reports and census surveys because they don't quite understand - or they ignore - the data's margin of error. Data collected from a sample of the population will never perfectly represent the population as a whole. The margin of error, which depends primarily on sample size, is a measure of how precise the estimate is. The margin of error for an opinion poll indicates how close the match is likely to be between the responses of the people in the poll and those of the population as a whole. To help journalists understand margin of error and how to correctly interpret data from polls and surveys, we've put together a list of seven tips, Look for the margin of error - and report it. It tells you and your audience how much the results can vary. Remember that the larger the margin of error, the greater the likelihood the survey estimate will be inaccurate. Make sure a political candidate really has the lead before you report it. Note that there are real trends, and then there are mistaken claims of a trend. Watch your adjectives. (And it might be best to avoid them altogether.) Keep in mind that the margin of error for subgroups of a sample will always be larger than the margin of error for the sample. Use caution when comparing results from different polls and surveys, especially those conducted by different organizations.
Simon Knight

How To Recognise A Fake News Story - 0 views

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    9 helpful tips to stop yourself from sharing false information.
Simon Knight

When To Trust A Story That Uses Unnamed Sources | FiveThirtyEight - 0 views

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    Not so much about data, but about how we use evidence when we don't know the original source, and how e e.g. a politician failing to deny something might be good confirmation that it's actually true. 5 tips for reading stories with unnamed sources
Simon Knight

11 questions journalists should ask about public opinion polls - 0 views

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    journalists often write about public opinion polls, which are designed to measure the public's attitudes about an issue or idea. Some of the most high-profile polls center on elections and politics. Newsrooms tend to follow these polls closely to see which candidates are ahead, who's most likely to win and what issues voters feel most strongly about. Other polls also offer insights into how people think. For example, a government agency might commission a poll to get a sense of whether local voters would support a sales tax increase to help fund school construction. Researchers frequently conduct national polls to better understand how Americans feel about public policy topics such as gun control, immigration reform and decriminalizing drug use. When covering polls, it's important for journalists to try to gauge the quality of a poll and make sure claims made about the results actually match the data collected. Sometimes, pollsters overgeneralize or exaggerate their findings. Sometimes, flaws in the way they choose participants or collect data make it tough to tell what the results really mean. Below are 11 questions we suggest journalists ask before reporting on poll results. While most of this information probably won't make it into a story or broadcast, the answers will help journalists decide how to frame a poll's findings - or whether to cover them at all.
Simon Knight

Mona Chalabi: 3 ways to spot a bad statistic | TED Talk | TED.com - 0 views

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    Sometimes it's hard to know what statistics are worthy of trust. But we shouldn't count out stats altogether ... instead, we should learn to look behind them. In this delightful, hilarious talk, data journalist Mona Chalabi shares handy tips to help question, interpret and truly understand what the numbers are saying.
Simon Knight

Sensitivity, specificity and understanding medical tests - 0 views

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    Interesting discussion of why headlines like this one "85% accurate" for the detection of stomach cancer" about an experimental breath test are problematic (because some people who don't have the condition get diagnosed with it, and they can miss people who genuinely do have the condition!). Good example using pregnancy tests as an infographic.
Simon Knight

3 reasons why you should be suspicious of study 'subgroup' results - HealthNewsReview.org - 1 views

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    "Fenofibrate may reduce heart disease risk in some patients with type 2 diabetes" The release goes on to suggest that among patients with type 2 diabetes who also had high levels of triglycerides and low levels of "good" cholesterol, the drug lowered the risk of cardiovascular events compared with placebo. Sounds like it might be time to ask your doctor about the benefits of fenofibrate, right? Before you schedule that appointment, you might want to consider this detail that wan't included in the news release: The findings of benefit came from a small group of patients within a larger study whose results had previously been reported. And that larger study, known as ACCORD, found no overall cardiovascular benefit among patients treated with fenofibrate.
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