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Welcome! This app will help train you to make more accurate, better-calibrated predictions. For each question, you'll be prompted to say what you think the answer is and how confident you are in that answer. You should try to give the right answer whenever you can, but your main goal is to be accurate about how confident you are in each answer. In other words, your goal is to be "well-calibrated," which means that when you say you're 50% confident, you're right about 50% of the time, and when you say you're 80% confident, you're right about 80% of the time, and so on. Nobody is perfectly calibrated, but some people are much better calibrated than others, and a variety of studies suggest you can improve your calibration with the sort of practice this app provides.

The quest for balance in a health news story can fail before the first sentence if the headline isn't appropriately calibrated. With that in mind, I looked at news stories and releases that we reviewed over the past month and compared the headline message with that of the study on which the news is based. About a third of news story headlines and a quarter of news release headlines either misstated the results or went beyond what the research could support.