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Chilean private miners association Sonami and copper and mining study group Cesco anticipate that Japanese copper demand will significantly recover in Q3 of the current year. It is expected that the market for copper will remain weak for several months due to the 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that hit the country on 11th March. However, reconstruction-related copper demand is predicted to exhibit significant growth rates from Q3 2011.

The Japan Copper and Brass Association reported that copper semis production amounted to 70,699t in April, a rise of 3.1% m-o-m on a seasonally adjusted basis, and almost flat y-o-y. This was principally attributed to fabricators ramping up production after the government revoked its schedule of rolling power cuts which were employed in March following the earthquake. In addition to this, increased demand from the air conditioning sector and further anticipated power outages over the summer are likely to have supported producers' decisions to increase production in April.

The Japanese Electric Wire & Cable Maker's Association reported that copper wire and cable shipments amounted to 55,400t in April 2011, down by 1.4% y-o-y, mainly due to the earthquake. It was the second consecutive month that shipments fell, attributed to weakened demand from the domestic electrical machinery and automotive sectors. However, April deliveries were positively impacted by increased demand from the construction sector, which is supported by rehabilitation needs.

Furukawa Electric, the Japanese copper products fabricator, anticipates that its annual operating profit for financial year 2011 will amount to Y31.0B, down by 15% y-o-y. The company attributes Y2.0B of the estimated fall in profits to the Japan Earthquake. It states that a decrease in demand from the automobile industry will cost Y3.5B but this will be partially offset by emerging demand from reconstruction work which will add revenues of up to Y1.5B.

It has been reported that Japanese smelters plan a 21% y-o-y reduction in output in 2011. The reduction is caused primarily by consequences of the 11th March earthquake. The Onahama plant in Fukushima, which produces 300,000t/y has caused particular disruptions to production following a three-month shutdown.

The Japanese Electric Wire & Cable Maker's Association reported that copper wire and cable shipments amounted to 58,000t in June 2011, up by 2.4% y-o-y, principally attributed to strong demand for wiring harnesses used in the automotive industry. This marks the first positive growth in Japanese wire and cable shipments since February after a drop in shipment levels due to the 11th March earthquake and tsunami. Wire and cable exports registered another year-on-year contraction in June, caused by increased competition from local producers and the strong yen. On the other hand, domestic delivery levels increased on the previous year in June, representing the tenth y-o-y rise in a row.

Codelco, the Chilean copper producer, is optimistic about medium to long term copper demand prospects, primarily due to Chinese growth. The company also sources its optimism from predictions that the Japanese earthquake will have only a marginal and short term impact on the copper market, before growth resumes. In addition, it was reported that world demand is strong and has a good outlook despite expectations that the market in the developed world will only return to pre-crisis levels.