The report concludes that the emerging economies are set to grow much faster
than the G7 over the next four decades. Figures for average growth in GDP in
purchasing power parity (PPP) terms (which adjusts for price level differences
across countries) show Nigeria leading the way over the period from 2012 to
2050, followed by Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia and
South Africa.
John Hawksworth, PwC Chief Economist and co-author of the report, explains:
"The global financial crisis has hit the G7 much harder than the E7 in the short
term. And it has also caused downward revisions in the estimates of longer term
trend growth in the G7 – particularly those economies in Europe and the US that
had previously relied on excessive public and private borrowing to drive
growth.”
This means that, in PPP terms:
The E7 could overtake the G7 before 2020
By 2050 China, the US and India could be by far the largest economies – with
a big gap to Brazil in fourth place, ahead of Japan
And by the same time, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia could be bigger than
Germany or the UK; Turkey could overtake Italy; and Nigeria could rise up the
league table, as could Vietnam and South Africa in the longer term.
Beyond the largest economies, Malaysia has considerable long-term growth
potential, while Poland could continue to outpace its Western European
neighbours for some decades to come.
