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THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. HOTEL REVPAR is expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by improving group business, inbound international travel, and traditional transient business demand, according to CBRE. This follows a strong performance in 2023 that muted the new forecast in some areas. The research firm forecasted a 3 percent increase in RevPAR growth in 2024, with occupancy improving by 45 basis points and ADR increasing by 2.3 percent. It indicates ongoing recovery of the lodging industry, with RevPAR in 2024 expected to surpass 2019 levels by 13.2 percent, CBRE Hotels said in a statement. CBRE's baseline forecast expects 1.6 percent GDP growth and 2.5 percent average inflation in 2024. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, the economy's strength will directly impact the lodging industry's performance, the statement said. "We expect RevPAR growth to be slower in the first quarter due to last year's strong performance, but to reach its peak in the third quarter driven by the influx of inbound international travelers during the busy summer season," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Urban and airport locations should particularly benefit from group and inbound international travel, as well as the normalization of leisure travel."

INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP reported a 3 percent increase in global RevPAR in the first half of 2024, with 3.2 percent growth in the second quarter, driven by a recovery in U.S. markets. ADR rose 2 percent, and occupancy increased by 0.6 percentage points in the first half, leading to a 6 percent rise in total gross revenue, reaching $16.1 billion. The company's U.S. RevPAR was positive starting in April, increasing by 2.5 percent in the second quarter, IHG said in a statement. In May, IHG reported a 0.3 percent year-over-year decline in RevPAR for the Americas in the first quarter, due to a 1.9 percent drop in U.S. RevPAR. "We are making great progress on the delivery of our strategic priorities and the clear framework to drive future value creation that we set out in February," said Elie Maalouf, IHG's CEO. "RevPAR growth accelerated in the latest quarter, reflecting a strong U.S rebound in the second quarter and the breadth of our global footprint, and development activity continues to increase. Together with system growth, notable margin expansion and the benefit of returning surplus capital through buybacks, adjusted EPS growth was up 12 percent."

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported strong early 2024 performance, with RevPAR and revenue growth, fueled by pipeline expansion driving its core hotel business and global franchise network. Systemwide RevPAR surged by 5.5 percent compared to 2023, while all-inclusive resorts net package RevPAR soared by 11 percent. Meanwhile, U.S. RevPAR increased by approximately 2 percent, excluding the Easter impact, indicating normalized growth. Net rooms grew by about 5.5 percent, with net income at $522 million and adjusted net income at $75 million, Hyatt said in a statement. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $252 million, dropping by 9 percent compared to Q1 2023, mainly due to the Super Bowl in Phoenix, increased real estate taxes, higher wages, and transaction costs from ongoing asset sales.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

MOST ECONOMY AND MID-PRICE extended-stay hotels' performance in September was down compared to August, according to a report from hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. However, the bottom-up recovery and room supply distribution geographically are hindering the upscale segment's recovery. Relative to other classes of hotels, mid-price extended-stay hotels recorded the largest gain in September, the U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: September 2021 report said. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR indices for upscale extended-stay hotels were about the same in September as in August but the decline in absolute ADR resulted in the segment's revenue recovery falling below 95 percent. Economy and mid-price segments both reported about a three-point gain in ADR recovery index in September compared to the month before. The upscale segment's ADR remained unchanged, the report said. "The mid-price extended-stay segment's gains in both ADR and occupancy pushed it slightly ahead of the upscale segment in terms of RevPAR growth. Because the overall hotel industry lost far more RevPAR than extended-stay hotels, its RevPAR growth in September 2021 compared to last year was 85 percent more than extended-stay hotels," the report added.

U.S. REVPAR IS expected to grow steadily in 2025, supported by urban markets benefiting from improved group and business travel and inbound international recovery, according to a recent CBRE study. The firm expects a 2 percent increase, with occupancy up 23 bps and ADR rising 1.6 percent. RevPAR in 2025 is projected to be 16.6 percent above 2019 levels, reflecting the lodging industry's continued recovery, CBRE said in a statement. "The U.S. hotel market is poised for steady growth in 2025, primarily led by continued outperformance of the urban segment, which should experience RevPAR growth of 2.8 percent this year," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "The sector's resilience and the sustained demand for higher-priced hotels bode well for the upcoming year."

THE REVPAR RECOVERY of U.S. extended-stay hotels remain unchanged in August compared to July, according to consulting firm The Highland Group. However, ADR growth for mid-price and upscale segments decreased for the fifth consecutive month but remained higher than any other period before 2021. STR said that hotel occupancy gained 5.3 percent in August 2022 compared to same period last year, decreasing extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium to 12.6 percentage points compared to more than 14 points in August 2021. But the premium remains well within its long-term average range. Economy and mid-price extended-stay segments reported much faster ADR growth compared to corresponding segments during the month, according to the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: August 2022. The economy segment continued leading the RevPAR recovery compared to 2019, but demand declined 1.9 percent for the fifth consecutive month compared to August 2021 due to strong increases in ADR.

OCCUPANCY PROJECTIONS ARE dropping while ADR projections are rising in a new forecast for U.S. hotels by STR and Tourism Economics. RevPAR is still expected to recover fully on a nominal basis this year, according to the forecast released Thursday at STR's 14th Annual Hotel Data Conference in Nashville. However, RevPAR is still expected to take until 2025 to recover when adjusted for inflation, according to the forecast. For 2022, RevPAR is now expected to average $93 compared to the projection of $92 released in June, when projected nominal RevPAR recovery was set in 2023. The occupancy projection for the year was lowered to 64.6 percent for the year and the ADR projection rose to $148. The updated forecast adds a little more than $2 to the ADR projection for both 2022 and 2023, and occupancy was lowered by less than a percentage point for each year.

AS THE FIRST half of 2022 ended, U.S. hotels overall were catching up with extended-stay hotels in terms of recovery, according to a report from The Highland Group. RevPAR recovery, for example, was almost the same for hotels overall and extended-stay. Also, the report found that new construction fell to an 8-year low over the first two quarters of the year, according to the report. For the first time in 18 months, the overall hotel industry's second quarter RevPAR recovery index surpassed 100 percent, matching the extended-stay hotel's 109 percent index. Economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels are still ahead of the overall recovery as well as upscale extended-stay hotels. The gap between the segments is expected to narrow over the near term.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will be well on the way to recovery in 2022, according to consulting firm HVS Americas. However, a full recovery in real terms, after adjusting for inflation, remains a few years away, it added. With more assets, both distressed and well performing, expected to come to market this year, 2022 will be an exciting year for the industry, said Rod Clough, president of HVS, in an article titled 'ALIS 2022 Takeaways - Our Industry Braces for a Big Year Ahead'. A near full recovery in RevPAR at $85 for U.S. hotels is likely to happen by the end of 2022 when compared to $86 in 2018-19. "The higher inflationary environment will continue to bode well for hotels, resulting in ADR pricing power leading to a lift in revenue on top of still lean operational models. Group travel is still lagging the recovery, but near-term, smaller-group bookings (at newly raised room rates) should help bridge the gap while the industry waits for larger meetings to return," Clough wrote in the article. "Rising development costs due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, and overall inflation are leading to a general contraction in new hotel openings. Moreover, development challenges are intensifying for major CBDs, attributed to slow office re-openings, a lag in larger convention bookings, higher operating/labor costs, and even higher construction costs than your average project."

OCCUPANCY AND ADR in U.S. hotels will continue to grow in 2022, with a year-over-year rebound in RevPAR of 14.4 percent, around 93 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to PwC. Meanwhile, ADR in the third and fourth quarter of 2022 is expected to surpass comparable 2019 levels. The near-term outlook for the U.S. lodging sector by PwC, titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2021 has said that the vast majority of temporarily-closed hotels will have reopened and demand growth, particularly from individual business travelers and groups, will improve if infection rates continue to drop in 2022. According to PwC report, continued demand recovery will result in an occupancy of 61.7 percent next year and ADR will see an increase of 5.9 percent. The consultancy firm anticipates RevPAR up by 14.4 percent in 2022.

REVPAR FOR U.S extended-stay economy, mid-scale and upscale segments is recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, according to a report from consulting firm The Highland Group. Total extended-stay hotel occupancy is very close to the first quarter levels reported in 2016 and 2017 but below its peak years since 2015. "Overall, first quarter extended-stay hotel ADR was the highest ever reported in 2023 and all three segments have more than fully recovered their 2019 nominal ADR values," the report said. In its "2023 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Report," Highland said the economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels made considerable gains in RevPAR relative to corresponding classes of all hotels between 2019 and 2023. Due to high concentration of rooms in urban markets, upscale extended-stay hotels have seen RevPAR decline slightly relative to all upscale class hotels. However, the gap is expected to narrow as urban markets make a full recovery, the report noted. "Rising interest rates and construction costs, as well as tightening loan underwriting, means extended-stay supply growth should be relatively low nationally for two to three years. Assuming the overall hotel industry does not endure a correction, extended-stay hotels should set more new performance records during the near term at least," says Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

A STRONG PERFORMANCE by U.S. hotels during the first quarter of 2022, along with other factors, are leading CBRE Hotels Research to raise its forecast for the rest of the year. The research firm now expects a full recovery in ADR in 2022 and in demand and RevPAR in 2023. First quarter RevPAR reached $72.20, up 61 percent from year earlier, despite a surge from the COVID-19 omicron variant, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth was driven by a 39 percent increase in ADR and a 16 percent increase in occupancy. ADR was 5 percent ahead of 2019's levels, marking the third consecutive quarter in which levels exceed the same period in 2019. These rising rates demonstrate that travelers aren't price-sensitive in many peak-demand markets.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing. All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said. "Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate resistance is building especially at lower price points."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE declined in the third week of December compared to the previous week, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons were positive due to the Hanukkah calendar shift and a shortened business travel period between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Occupancy, RevPAR and ADR all saw week-over-week decreases. Occupancy fell to 48.9 percent for the week ending Dec. 21, down from 59.5 percent the previous week but up 11.4 percent year-over-year. ADR declined to $135.79 from $155.21, reflecting a 2.7 percent year-over-year increase. RevPAR dropped to $66.36 from $92.32 week-over-week but showed a 14.3 percent gain compared to the same period in 2023. Tampa, driven partly by hurricane recovery demand, led year-over-year growth among the top 25 markets, with occupancy up 37.9 percent to 71.5 percent and RevPAR up 63.8 percent to $110.51. New York City recorded the highest ADR increase, up 20.1 percent to $351.39.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter and continue into 2025 despite subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, according to CBRE. RevPAR growth for 2024 is now projected at 0.5 percent, down from 1.2 percent in August, due to a 40 bps drop in expected occupancy. Occupancy is forecast to decline 30 bps year-over-year while ADR is projected to rise 0.7 percent, 40 bps below earlier forecasts, the report said. RevPAR growth is expected to rebound in the four quarter of 2024, driven by rate cuts, easing inflation and stock market gains. "U.S. hotels performance was softer-than-expected during the summer months, partly due to Americans traveling overseas in record numbers," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "At the same time, the slow recovery in inbound international travel has created an imbalance in U.S. leisure demand. Despite this, continued improvements in group and business travel served as relative bright spots in the third quarter."

MOST RECOVERY INDICES of U.S. extended-stay hotels declined slightly in October compared to the month before, according to hotel investment advisors Highland Group. Economy extended-stay hotels continue to lead the RevPAR recovery during the month with a 20 percent gain over the same period two years ago. The mid-price segment has more than recovered RevPAR every month since July and upscale extended-stay hotels continue to lag mainly due to the relatively high concentration of rooms in urban locations, according to "U.S. Extended-stay Hotels Bulletin: October 2021" report from to The Highland Group. According to the report, the 4 percent increase in extended-stay room supply in October was the lowest monthly gain in 2021. Mid-price and upscale supply growth should be well below pre-pandemic levels in the near future as the impact to supply growth from reopening hotels closed during the pandemic is almost over, the report added. The recent Highland Group report said that U.S. extended-stay hotels saw all-time highs in third quarter.

STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

BOUTIQUE HOTELS GENERATED more annual RevPAR than traditional hotels in the U.S. last year, according to a report from consulting agency The Highland Group. Hotels focused on experiential stay, exceptional design and amenities also attracted a rate premium, the report said. Boutique hotels are classified into independent boutique, lifestyle hotels and soft brand collections. The Boutique Hotel Report 2022 has said that upper midscale, upscale and luxury soft brand collections recovered strongly in 2021 in performance metrics against their US upscale counterparts, while the upper upscale class was ahead in rate recovery and lagged in occupancy. According to the report, lifestyle upper upscale and luxury hotels recovered at parity with their counterparts, while upper midscale and upscale lifestyle hotels reported slower recovery in both occupancy and average rate. "Upper midscale and upscale independent boutique hotels in urban locations recovered at a stronger pace than all U.S. hotel in urban locations in both performance metrics.