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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped 16.4 percent in the first month of 2023, according to STR. A drop in recession fears and other factors gave investor confidence a boost, the research firms said. In January, the Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 6.2 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 10.5 percent, STR said in a report. The index dropped 10 percent in December, and it was down 15 percent for 2022. According to STR, the Hotel Brand sub-index increased 16.2 percent from December to 10,342, while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 17.1 percent to 1,216. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply in January and were significant outperformers as the back-and-forth recessionary concerns once again subsided to start the year," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Industry-wide RevPAR trends finished the year on a strong note despite tougher calendar comparisons and weather-related travel disruptions in December. Several Hotel REITs provided fourth-quarter operational updates, and performance generally was in line with prior expectations. More broadly, investor sentiment has improved, which boosted stock prices across the board in January, but the macroeconomic indicators have remained mixed."

THE HOTEL PROPERTY types most associated with business travel, upper upscale hotels, are well represented in the U.S. hotel construction pipeline. The volume of projects in the segment points to confidence in the future of business travel, according to STR. "Upper upscale saw the slowest recovery, but a steady climb in performance and the business travel indicators have supported developer confidence in the segment," said Isaac Collazo, STR's vice president for analytics. "The more than 23,000 upper upscale rooms in construction right now represent 3.4 percent of the segment's existing supply. That is well above the long-term growth average, up 2 percent in the U.S." According to STR, a total 154,284 rooms were under construction in March, down 0.5 percent compared to the same period last year. As many as 239,995 rooms are in the final planning state, an increase of 34.6 percent over last year. STR pipeline data showed that 232,517 rooms are under planning, a decline of 21.6 percent compared to March 2022. After three consecutive month-over-month increases, the overall number of U.S. rooms in construction fell slightly in March, which aligns with patterns in previous years. Among the chain scale segments, luxury shows the highest number of rooms as a percentage of existing supply. Luxury segment reports the highest increase in hotel construction in March, up 5.2 percent containing 7,136 rooms, followed by upscale, up 4.1 percent with 36,089 rooms and upper midscale, increased 3.7 percent containing 43,470 rooms.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE moved closer to pre-pandemic levels during the third week of November according to STR. It dipped, however, from the week before. Occupancy was 59.7 percent for the week ending Nov. 20, down from 61.6 percent for the week before and a slight decrease of 2.1 percent from the same period two years ago. ADR for the third week of the month was $126.66, down from $129.98 the week before and increased 1.7 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $75.60 for the third week of the month from $80.02 the week before, and a slight drop of 0.4 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Phoenix saw the largest occupancy increase during the week under review, up 6.4 percent to 76.6 percent over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, 25.5 percent to $207.72. Oahu Island, Hawaii, experienced the steepest occupancy decline from 2019, down 35.2 percent to 51.8 percent.

U.S. WEEKLY HOTEL performance posted mixed year-over-year comparisons, while occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR declined in the second week of May over the previous week, according to STR. Meanwhile, "worsened comparisons than the week prior were expected due to normal given seasonal slowing and the negative side of the Mother's Day calendar shift," STR said. Occupancy was 65.1 percent for the week ending May 13, declined from 65.2 percent the week before and down 2 percent over the comparable week in 2022. ADR stood at $154.90, down from $157.62, and increased 3.4 percent from 2022. RevPAR came in at $100.81 in the last week, declined from $102.74 the week before and increased 1.3 percent against the same period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Philadelphia registered the only double-digit increase in occupancy in the second week of the month, up 13.3 percent to 73.2 percent. ADR jumped 14.5 to $189.50, while RevPAR was up 29.7 percent to $138.80. Of note, New York City, 83.7 percent, was the only major market to report occupancy above 80 percent. That level was up 3.9 percent year-over-year.

U.S. HOTEL OCCUPANCY was down in first week of March week-over-week, according to STR. All metrics were higher than comparable time periods in the last two years. Occupancy stood at 62.8 percent for the week ending March 4, down from 64.2 percent the week before, 3 percent more than the comparable week in 2022 and 5.6 percent below the comparable week in 2019. ADR stood at $151.35 for, up from $156.51 the previous week and also up 8.9 percent and 14.1 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019, respectively. RevPAR was reported at $95.06, down from $100.43 the previous week, and up 12.1 percent and 7.7 percent increase over the same month in 2022 and 2019. Among the Top 25 Markets, Detroit saw the highest occupancy increase over 2019, up 5 percent to 63.2 percent, while Washington, D.C., was up the most from last year, an increase of 23.6 percent to 64.1 percent. D.C. also reported the most substantial year-over-year RevPAR growth, up 52.2 percent to $113.56. Las Vegas reported the highest ADR increase at $196.65 when measuring against 2019, up 56.8 percent and an increase of 33.7 percent in 2022. Las Vegas also saw the largest jump in RevPAR over 2019, up 54.3 percent to $153.55.

THE U.S. HOTEL industry will continue its recovery in 2022, but the path will be uneven and potentially volatile, according to a report by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. It added that a full recovery from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will take several years. AHLA's 2022 State of the Hotel Industry report also revealed shifts in consumer and business sentiment. The report was created in collaboration with Accenture and is based on data and forecasts from Oxford Economics and STR. According to the report, hotel occupancy rates and room revenue will approach 2019 levels this year, but the outlook for ancillary revenue, which includes F&B and meeting space, is less optimistic. Leisure travelers will continue to drive recovery, the report added. Hotels lost a collective $111.8 billion in room revenue alone during 2020 and 2021. Business travelers made up 52.5 percent of industry room revenue in 2019 and it will be 43.6 percent in 2022. Business travel will be down more than 20 percent for much of the year, the report said. As the full effects of Omicron is not yet known, just 58 percent of meetings and events are expected to return. AHLA report said that the rapid rise of bleisure travelers-those who blend business and leisure travel-are impacting hotel operations now. A recent study revealed that 89 percent of business travelers wanted to add a private holiday to their business trips in the next twelve months.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index rose again in April, continuing a trend the index has followed for the past four months. Investors' optimism is driven by the travel industry's ongoing recovery due to pent-up demand that is overriding negative influences, such as the Russia/Ukraine war and rising interest rates. Baird/STR went up 0.7 percent during the month, according to STR. The index rose 3.1 percent over the first four months of 2022. In March it increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index also surpassed both the S&P 500, which dropped 8.8 percent in April, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which went down 4.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 0.5 percent from March, while the hotel REIT sub-index jumped up 1.5 percent.

THE REVPAR OF U.S. hotels is expected to surpass 2019 levels this year, according to the upgraded forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. Still, full recovery may be a couple of years away. ADR and RevPAR for U.S. hotels are forecasted at $14 and $6 higher in 2022 respectively, when compared to 2019, the report presented at the 44th annual NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference stated. However, occupancy in this year is projected to come in under the pre-pandemic comparable. Earlier, the forecast projected nominal RevPAR recovery in 2023. According to the forecast, the major factor in the revised timeline was a plus $11 adjustment in 2022 ADR. But, when adjusted for inflation, full recovery of ADR and RevPAR are not projected until 2024. The report added that central business districts and the top 25 markets are not expected to reach full RevPAR recovery until after 2024.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons year-over-year, according to STR. Meanwhile, U.S. occupancy reached the second highest level for any week this year. Occupancy came in at 67.5 percent for the week ending May 20, up from 65.1 percent the week before and down 1.5 percent over the comparable week in 2022. ADR was $158.53, up from $154.90 the previous week, and increased 3.6 percent from 2022. RevPAR stood at $106.98 in the recent week, jumped from $100.81 the week before and increased 2.1 percent against the same period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Washington, D.C., saw the highest year-over-year increases in each of the three key performance metrics: occupancy rose 9.3 percent to 83.2 percent, while ADR increased 16.2 percent to $220.58. RevPAR also rose 27 percent to $183.60. Furthermore, the weekly occupancy level was the highest in the market since the start of the pandemic, STR said.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

OCCUPANCY FOR U.S. hotels is now expected to finish the year a little down from the previous forecast by STR and Tourism Economics. However, projections for ADR and RevPAR recovery remain on track in the data firms' final forecast of the year. RevPAR is still expected to fully recover this year on a nominal basis, but not until 2025 when adjusted for inflation, according to the new forecast. The updated forecast lowered occupancy by less than a percentage point for 2022, standing now at 62.7 percent compared to the previously forecasted 63 percent released in August. "As expected, group business travel has been much more aligned with pre-pandemic patterns, specifically in October when group demand hit a pandemic-era high," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Leisure travel has maintained its strength since our previous forecast update, and we expect these strong demand trends in both group and leisure to continue through the fourth quarter. Bottom-line performance has also persisted, with our most recent data showing strong profit margins due to lower employment levels and reduced services. The challenges around labor continue to be a concern, as high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor are pushing labor costs on a per-available-room basis above 2019 levels. We continue to take inflation and the likely recession into consideration, but the hotel industry has continued to show resilience through these tougher times, thus the steadiness of our updated forecast."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE improved in the final week of 2022 compared to the week before due to favorable side of a holiday calendar shift, according to STR. When compared to the same period in 2019 performance also increased in the last week of December. According to STR, the comparable week in 2019 covered Dec. 29 to Jan. 4. Occupancy was 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 31, up from 43.9 percent the week before and increased 10.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $167.21 during the week, a steep increase from $132.29 the week before and up 21.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $90.63 in the final week of December, rose from $58.04 the week before and up 34.3 percent from 2019.

AS A RESULT of a larger impact from the Omicron variant, U.S. hotel occupancy worsened in the second week of January in comparison with pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. However, occupancy was higher than the previous week on an absolute basis. Occupancy was 48.8 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, up from 45.4 percent the week before and down 16.3 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $122.12 for the week, up from $119.92 the week before, but down 1.6 percent from two years ago. RevPAR reached $59.57, up from $54.47 the prior week and down 17.6 percent from the same period two years ago. According to STR, ADR and RevPAR were up week over week and when indexed to 2019.

AS THE HOLIDAY season dwindles into the past, so did U.S. hotels' performance, according to STR. Occupancy dropped, dragging ADR and RevPAR with it. Occupancy was 45.4 percent for the week ending Jan. 8, down from 54.3 percent the week before and down 14.9 percent from the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $119.92 for the week, down from $157.91 week over week and a 4.8 percent drop from 2019. RevPAR reached $54.47, a decline from $85.74 the prior week and down 19 percent from 2019. "Occupancy fell week over week because of a slowdown in leisure demand and a continued absence of business travel due to a Saturday holiday," STR said. "While ADR also dropped from an all-time high the previous week, the metric came in at roughly 95 percent of the 2019 comparable." Occupancy did not increase over 2019 levels for any of STR's top 25 markets, but Dallas came closest, falling shy by 6.6 percent with 55.1 percent.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index jumped 15.8 percent in October, according to STR. There were no signs of slowing as U.S. demand continued to strengthen during the month. The index decreased 8 percent year-to-date through the first ten months of 2022. The index fell 9.1 percent in September. In October, the index outgrew both the S&P 500, up 8 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 4.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index increased 14.4 percent from September to 9,458, while the hotel REIT sub-index grew 20.6 percent to 1,193. "October was a strong rebound month for hotel stocks, and they recouped all their losses from the prior two months," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Importantly, both the global hotel brands and the hotel REITs were relative outperformers versus their respective benchmarks in October. As investors shifted their focus from broader macroeconomic uncertainties to sector-specific performance ahead of and through third-quarter earnings reports, hotels continued to screen favorably given still-strong underlying fundamentals and an intact post-pandemic recovery thesis."

REFLECTING THE POSITIVE side of the Easter calendar shift, U.S. hotel performance during the second week of April increased from the previous week, according to STR. Year-over-year comparisons also were up. Occupancy was 64.2 percent for the week ending April 15, up from 61.3 percent the week before, and increased 3.7 percent than the comparable week in 2022. ADR stood at $155.33, up from $153.3 the week before, jumped 4.7 percent against 2022. RevPAR came in at $99.67, increased from $94 in the last week, and rose 8.6 percent over the same month in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Minneapolis saw the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, up 17.4 percent to 54.5 percent during the Easter week. Washington, D.C., reported the most substantial ADR, up 22.5 percent to $200.99, and RevPAR, increased 38.1 percent to $146.73 year-over-year.

AS NORMAL SPRING break patterns continue, U.S. hotel performance increased in the first week of April compared to the previous week, according to STR. Metrics improved over the previous week as well as year-over-year in most cases. Occupancy stood at 66.2 percent for the week ending April 1, up from 64.9 percent the week before, and rose 3.4 percent than the comparable week in 2022 and decreased 3.5 percent over the comparable week in 2019. ADR was $158.40, down from $158.61 the week before, increased 7.3 percent and 19.9 percent against 2022 and 2019, respectively. RevPAR was $104.78 from $102.98 in the last week and rose 10.9 percent and 15.7 percent over the same month in 2022 and 2019. Among the top 25 markets, Washington, D.C., registered the highest year-over-year increase in occupancy, up 18.2 percent to 78.7 percent, while Dallas saw the highest occupancy lift over 2019, up 6.2 percent to 73 percent. Houston showed the most substantial ADR, up 25.8 percent to $133.5, while Phoenix reported the highest ADR increase over 2019, up 49.4 percent to $232.54.

REVPAR FOR U.S. hotels recovered to 83.2 percent of 2019 levels in 2021, according to STR. Also, in December 2021, ADR and RevPAR hit all-time highs. U.S. hotel occupancy in 2021 was 57.6 percent, down 12.6 percent when compared to 2019. ADR for the year was $124.67, down just 4.8 percent from 2019. RevPAR at $71.87, down 16.8 percent when compared to two years ago. "In addition to 2020, U.S. hotel occupancy failed to reach 60 percent for just the second time since 2011," STR said. "On a nominal basis, 2021 ADR was the fourth highest on record. The country's RevPAR level was its second lowest in eight years behind only 2020." According to the report, none of the top 25 markets experienced an occupancy increase last year over 2019. Tampa reported the highest occupancy at 68.4 percent, down 5.2 percent from 2019. The largest ADR increase in 2021 was in Miami, up 14.7 percent to $223.49, compared to 2019. Norfolk/Virginia Beach registered the highest growth in RevPAR, up 7.7 percent to $72.31.

GOPPAR FOR U.S. hotels improved in September compared to the month before and it exceeded the pre-pandemic levels, according to STR. Meanwhile, the cost of labor per available room came in higher than the pre-pandemic comparable for the first time. GOPPAR was $84.03 for the month, up from $64.26 reported in August. It was $78.30 for July and $91.23 in June. The performance index was $88.63 in May and stood at $90.96 in April. EBITDA PAR was $60.71 for September, TRevPAR was $222.97 and labor costs per room were $71.52. "Labor costs moved ahead the 2019 comparable due to continued high levels of hospitality unemployment and more spending on contract labor," said Raquel Ortiz, STR's director of financial performance. "Total labor costs were up 5 percent year to date, with all departments reporting higher expenses, except F&B, due to less group demand earlier this year. GOPPAR was the strongest since June 2022, and profit margins came in higher than September 2019. Profit margins have been strong for some time caused by lower employment levels and reduced services."

ALL RECOVERY INDICES of U.S. extended-stay hotels were lower compared to 2019 in May than in April, according to hotel investment advisors The Highland Group. The demand for economy extended-stay hotels declined 1.3 percent for the second consecutive month in May compared to same period last year mainly due to sharp increase in ADR in last few months, the report said. The U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: May 2022 by The Highland Group said that the extended-stay room supply growth was just 1.9 percent during the month. It is the second successive month that the growth was below 2 percent since 2013, and the eighth consecutive month of 4 percent or lower supply growth. The report added that the supply increase will be well below pre-pandemic levels during the near term. According to STR, all hotel room revenue was up 43 percent in May 2022 compared to last year. "In May, mid-price and upscale extended-stay segments reported their lowest monthly change in demand in 2022. Except for February 2021, due to the leap year in 2020, economy extended-stay hotels reported only the second monthly fall in demand in 23 consecutive months," the report said. "Overall hotel occupancy gained more than extended-stay hotels in May compared to one year ago, decreasing extended-stay hotel's occupancy premium to 12 percentage points, and remains within its long-term average range."