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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2.4 percent to 5,600, influenced by increasing interest rates affecting both real estate stocks and investor sentiment, according to STR. Moreover, U.S. hotel demand saw a 1.3 percent decrease in October, linked in part to a calendar shift. This marks the third consecutive month of stock decline after a surge in July. "Hotel stocks declined for the third straight month in October, aligning with broader market trends," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Elevated interest rates continued to drive performance, with real estate stocks bearing the brunt. Hotel REITs stood out as relative outperformers. The global hotel brands experienced a roughly 2 percent decrease, closely mirroring the S&P 500's retreat in October." In October, the Baird/STR Index fell behind the S&P 500, down 2.2 percent, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, down 4.5 percent.

MOST AMERICANS PLAN to keep spending at least the same on travel, according to a recent Jenius Bank report. The report indicates that consumers view "richness" as balancing expense management with enjoying life and growing their wealth. Approximately 29.3 percent of Americans refuse to cut back on travel, despite its non-essential status, according to the Jenius Bank report. Also, 20.1 percent of consumers' largest one-time payment in 2023 was for a vacation. The study, "The Mind-Money Connection: How Managing Your Finances Can Make You Happier," reveals how consumers' financial situations are linked to their mental health and wellbeing.

CBRE HOTELS RECENTLY reduced U.S. hotel forecast as lodging demand dips amid soft leisure travel and slower corporate profit growth. The upcoming election in November and other economic factors led to the revisions. The research group now projects a 1.2 percent RevPAR increase for 2024, down from 2 percent in May. However, it expects a 2 percent RevPAR growth in the second half of 2024, up from 0.5 percent in the first half, driven by international tourism and election events. Lodging industry performance is closely linked to economic strength, with GDP growth generally correlating with RevPAR growth, CBRE said in a statement. The company forecasts 2.3 percent GDP growth and 3.2 percent average inflation for 2024. "We expect low single-digit RevPAR growth over the near-term as election-related events, growth in inbound international travel and an anticipated lower interest rate environment should support hotel demand," said Rachael Rothman, CBRE's head of hotel research and data analytics. "Challenges including weakening consumer spending and increased competition from short-term rentals, cruise lines and other lodging alternatives pose downside risks."

AAHOA AND KALIBRI Labs launched a national study on the impact of federal policy changes and industry challenges, showing a mixed outlook for U.S. hospitality in 2025. About one-third of hotel submarkets are ahead of 2024 benchmarks, but more are seeing declines-particularly in government and corporate segments-raising concerns ahead of peak summer travel. AAHOA's March 2025 survey found 69 percent of hotel owners reported business declines linked to recent federal policy changes. "These findings are not just numbers-they reflect the real-world challenges and opportunities facing our members," said Miraj Patel, AAHOA chairman. "It's encouraging to see that some markets are holding steady or growing, but the overall outlook calls for close attention and action. As owners, we are on the front lines, and partnerships like this help ensure our perspective is represented in broader industry discussions."

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