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A CONTINUING SENSE of optimism about the nation's recovery among investors sent the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index up in October. Hotel brands led the increase as concerns about the COVID-19 Delta variant began to ease. The Baird/STR index rose 6.8 percent during the month, and it also was up 20.7 percent year to date through the first 10 months of 2021. The index rose 5.2 percent during September compared to August. Still, the index was behind both the S&P 500, which rose 6.9 percent in October, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 7.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 9 percent from September while the hotel REIT sub-index increased 0.5 percent. "Hotel stocks increased for the second straight month, but performance was led by the hotel brands once again," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "The hotel REITs were marginally higher in October, while the hotel brands were the absolute and relative winners. Delta variant concerns are in the rearview mirror now, and investors are looking forward to the recovery continuing in 2022, particularly in some of the harder hit segments, markets, and regions that are poised to rebound strongly."

Isaac Collazo is the new vice president of analytics for STR. Previously, he was vice president of capacity at InterContinental Hotels Group. Previously, Collazo conducted performance analysis, predictive analytics, modeling and macroeconomic interpretation for Marriott International, Promus Hotel Corporation and La Quinta Inns & Suites. He also is a content committee member for STR's Hotel Data Conference. "Isaac will be an immediate voice in conversations around STR methodology as well as our ongoing product development in the CoStar platform," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Long-term, he'll contribute to the evolution of the holistic solution we will deliver to the industry." Commercial real estate research company CoStar acquired STR in 2019. Collazo called the new position a "dream come true."

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

OMICRON, THE LATEST COVID-19 variant of concern, led to new restrictions on some international travel over the Thanksgiving weekend. Members of the travel industry are urging federal officials to be cautious, but not to impose bans that they say will not stop the spread of the new variant. On Nov. 26, the World Health Organization issued new guidance on the Omicron variant, which emerged out of South Africa. Researchers are still investigating the variant's transmissibility, severity and the effectiveness of current vaccines against it. "Preliminary evidence suggests there may be an increased risk of reinfection with Omicron (ie, people who have previously had COVID-19 could become reinfected more easily with Omicron)," the WHO said in its statement. "WHO is working with technical partners to understand the potential impact of this variant on our existing countermeasures, including vaccines. Vaccines remain critical to reducing severe disease and death, including against the dominant circulating variant, Delta. Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death."

HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

THE U.S. TRAVEL Association and Tourism Diversity Matters formed a new strategic partnership to focus on issues related to diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI), a statement from USTA said. The partnership will provide USTA more access to Tourism Diversity Matters' subject matter expertise, research and resources. Founded in 2021, Tourism Diversity Matters addresses blind spots in ethnic disparities within the tourism and events industries. It will provide these industry leaders with resources and tactics to develop more effective DEI strategies to engage, recruit and retain a diverse workforce. DEI is a core priority of USTA, the association said in a statement, and is committed to having a vital role in affecting lasting change and supporting the development of industry-wide DEI plans. The partnership will advance workforce development issues and federal policy initiatives that support travel's recovery, the statement added. "USTA has a clear vision: in working closely with Tourism Diversity Matters, we aim to help the travel sector achieve a truly diverse, equitable and inclusive industry for all," said Roger Dow, USTA's president and CEO and a board member of Tourism Diversity Matters. "Aligning with Tourism Diversity Matters is a great step toward this pursuit that will enrich USTA's membership for years to come."

THE FIRST TWO months of 2022 saw up and down performance by Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index, according to STR. In January, the index sank, then in February it rose again, regaining lost ground. In January, the index dropped 3.8 percent after rising 12.7 percent in December. The index still outperformed both the S&P 500, which dropped 5.3 percent that month, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index fell 4.3 percent from December and the hotel REIT sub-index declined 2.2 percent. "Despite the significant stock market volatility to start the year, both the hotel brands and hotel REITs outperformed their respective benchmarks in January, which continued the momentum from the end of 2021," Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird, said at that time. "Positively, Omicron-related concerns are slowly subsiding, and investors are looking forward again. At the same time, leisure demand remains robust, optimism regarding a more normalized travel environment is building, and the broader growth-to-value rotation has benefitted hotel stocks as inflation pressures remain front and center."

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose in March, continuing a trend from the previous month. Still, continued growth remains at risk by factors such as inflation and political unrest. The index increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. It rose 2.4 percent year to date through the first three months of 2022. However, Baird/STR fell behind both the S&P 500, up 3.6 percent in March, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 5.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index rose 1.4 percent from February, while the Hotel REIT sub-index jumped 5.1 percent. "Hotel stocks increased in March but underperformed their benchmarks as stock market volatility eased and geopolitical concerns did not worsen," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Underlying hotel fundamentals continued to improve in March, and the outlook appears more favorable today than just one month ago despite all of the background noise in the stock market and with interest rates on the rise. Higher gas prices and heightened concerns about a slower growth backdrop have been topical with investors lately, but broader travel momentum and pent-up demand should keep the lodging recovery going over the near term, in our opinion."

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HILTON HAS LAUNCHED a new extended-stay brand, Project H3, designed to meet the needs of the rapidly expanding $300 billion workforce travel market, looking for apartment-style accommodations for 20 nights or more. Launching in the U.S. as Hilton navigates the final stages of the trademark process, this lower midscale, extended-stay brand is the newest addition to Hilton's portfolio, the company said in a statement. Hilton is engaged in more than 100 active development conversations with many owners expressing interest in multiple locations. According to the statement, the product provides a foundation for the long stay, allowing guests to make the most out of every day, and delivers an exciting investment option for developers looking to diversify their portfolio under the Hilton name. "Project H3 is perfectly positioned to serve the unique needs of the long-stay traveler, thanks to its innovative design, strong value proposition for our owners and of course, the hospitality our team members offer every day," said Chris Nassetta, Hilton president and CEO. "We aim to serve any guest, anywhere in the world, for any travel need they may have, and this new brand represents a greater opportunity for us to grow our portfolio while providing the reliable and friendly service our customers expect from Hilton." Hilton's in-house research shows long-stay travelers, including traveling nurses, military personnel, and those experiencing workforce relocations, place quality time and comfort above all else. In addition, those looking for a long stay will book an average of 20 or more nights and desire a reliable home base that allows them to maintain their routines while delivering simplicity, consistency and convenience.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index jumped 15.8 percent in October, according to STR. There were no signs of slowing as U.S. demand continued to strengthen during the month. The index decreased 8 percent year-to-date through the first ten months of 2022. The index fell 9.1 percent in September. In October, the index outgrew both the S&P 500, up 8 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 4.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index increased 14.4 percent from September to 9,458, while the hotel REIT sub-index grew 20.6 percent to 1,193. "October was a strong rebound month for hotel stocks, and they recouped all their losses from the prior two months," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Importantly, both the global hotel brands and the hotel REITs were relative outperformers versus their respective benchmarks in October. As investors shifted their focus from broader macroeconomic uncertainties to sector-specific performance ahead of and through third-quarter earnings reports, hotels continued to screen favorably given still-strong underlying fundamentals and an intact post-pandemic recovery thesis."

AS MANY AS 60 percent of Americans are likely to stay in hotels this year, more than last year, according to two surveys commissioned by the American Hotel & Lodging Association. The survey findings apply to business and leisure travelers, with most saying they are travelling as much as or more than they did pre-pandemic. Hotels are the top lodging choice among travelers for business and leisure in the next three months, the new national Hotel Booking Index survey research commissioned by AHLA and conducted by Morning Consult has revealed. According to the surveys, conducted on Dec. 16 to 19 and Dec. 28 to Jan. 2, 52 percent of adults would choose to stay in hotels in the next three months, while 76 percent of potential business travelers would be most likely to stay in a hotel during the same period. Besides, business travelers indicate that nearly 70 percent of their employers have either returned to the pre-pandemic normal or increased amounts of business travel. The survey said that 51 percent of business travelers said that share of employees expected or encouraged to travel for work is now the same as before the pandemic, while another 20 percent said it's more than before. About 53 percent of business travelers said that the average length of business trips is now the same as before the pandemic, while another 20 percent said it's more than before.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped in July, ending a downward trend for two consecutive months. The index decreased 10.4 percent year-to-date for the first seven months of 2022. Baird/STR Index recorded a sharp increase of 14.3 percent in July, according to STR. The index fell 19.3 percent in June and dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 9.1 percent from June, and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 8.7 percent, respectively during July. The hotel brand sub-index rose 14.2 percent from June, while the Hotel REIT sub-index increased 14.6 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply and outperformed their respective benchmarks in July; relative outperformance has continued in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Despite the big gains in July, hotel stocks did not fully recapture June's losses. Positively, second quarter earnings exceeded analysts' and investors' expectations, and broader recession fears have begun to subside, which has boosted sentiment and stock prices. All eyes are on the post-Labor Day outlook that should reflect a more normalized travel environment."

CBRE HOTELS RESEARCH has once again revised its forecast for the second half of 2022. The revision is mainly due to strong gains in the second quarter and expectations of positive growth next year. RevPAR for the second half of the year will rise to 14.7 percent year-over-year, up from the previous projection of 13.1 percent in May, according to CBRE. The reasons for the spike are a 3.5 percentage point increase in ADR and a 2.2 percentage point reduction in CBRE's demand forecast. Second quarter RevPAR reached $98.84, up 38 percent year over-year, and an all-time quarterly high at 106 percent of 2019's level. RevPAR growth was driven mainly by ADR, up 25.5 percent, followed by occupancy, up 9.9 percent.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index fell 9.1 percent in September, according to STR. Experts said that they have concerns regarding recession and its impact on the sector. The index witnessed a sharp drop of 20.6 percent year-to-date through the first nine months of 2022. In September, the Index surpassed both the S&P 500, down 9.3 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which fell 12.8 percent. The hotel brand sub-index decreased 7.7 percent from August to 8,268, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dropped 13.5 percent to 989. "September was a risk-off month for the broader market, and hotel stocks were down sharply as well. However, the Hotel REITs were modest underperformers only, while the Global Hotel Brands were slight relative outperformers," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Broader macroeconomic concerns continue to dominate investor sentiment and positioning, but underlying hotel fundamentals held steady throughout the month, which relatively helped the hotel stocks during a volatile time for the capital markets. Investors continue to ask about recession scenarios and downside analyses for our coverage list, which suggests a lot of the bad news is being priced into the stocks, particularly the Hotel REITs, in our opinion."

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STEERED BY SEVERAL factors, including the strong performance by several hotel brands, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index increased 1.4 percent in April to a level of 5,430, STR said in a statement. Growth is slowing, STR said, but will continue for the next quarter or more. "Hotel stocks increased in April, and the gains were driven by outperformance from the global hotel brands," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "RevPAR trends have remained solid in the face of growing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued banking turmoil, and first-quarter earnings generally have surprised to the upside with positive full-year estimate revisions occurring. The Hotel REITs declined more than 2 percent in April and underperformed the RMZ, while the global hotel brands gained just over 2.5 percent and outperformed the S&P 500's return by 100 bps." According to STR, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell slightly behind the S&P 500, which was up 1.5 percent in April but came in above the MSCI US REIT Index, up 0.7 percent. The hotel brand sub-index jumped 2.5 percent from March to 10,178, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 2.6 percent to 1,045, it added. "The industry continues to revert to normal patterns and calendar shifts with growth slowing as forecasted," said Amanda Hite, STR president. "Monthly demand fell year over year for the first time since the recovery began in April 2021, but that decrease can be attributed to an extra Sunday on the calendar this year versus last. Without the extra Sunday, which is historically a low-performance night, demand would have been slightly up from last year. ADR, on the other hand, grew 3.4 percent, while RevPAR was up 1.8 percent - the lowest increase of the recovery thus far. Despite slowing growth, we expect the industry to see further gains throughout the summer and fall."

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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped in June for the second consecutive month. The index dropped for the first time, after rising continuously for five months, in May. Baird/STR recorded a sharp fall of 19.3 percent in June, according to STR. The index dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The index decreased 21.6 percent during the first six months of 2022. The Baird/STR Index fell behind both the S&P 500, dropped 8.4 percent from May and the MSCI US REIT Index, down 7.9 percent respectively during June. The hotel brand sub-index fell 19.3 percent from May, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dipped 19.5 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks continued on their downward trajectory in June and were significant relative under-performers as investors began to factor in an increasing likelihood of an impending recession," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "While the upcoming summer travel months are expected to be strong, investors are looking beyond the near-term fundamental strength to a period when demand and ADR growth are likely to moderate, which is supported by the many macroeconomic indicators that are flashing signs of broader slowing."

The index decreased 12.6 percent year-to-date through the first eight months of 2022. In August it also surpassed both the S&P 500, down 4.2 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 6.1 percent. Also, the hotel brand sub-index fell 2.3 percent from July to 8,959, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 3.7 percent to 1,143. "Hotel stocks took a breather in August after July's sharp rebound. Despite the slight decline in stock prices, both the Global Hotel Brands and Hotel REITs outperformed their respective benchmarks in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel trends have remained solid throughout the summer months despite all the capital markets volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, investors appear somewhat skeptical about the prospects for a significant recovery in business transient travel post-Labor Day, and hotel stocks appear to be discounting this relatively conservative fundamental expectation, in our opinion."