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HOTEL STOCK PRICE volatility dragged the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index in November. Both the hotel brands and hotel REITs significantly underperformed their respective benchmarks during the month. The Baird/STR index fell 7.6 percent during the month from October. However, it was up 11.5 percent year to date through the first 11 months of 2021. The index rose 6.8 percent during October compared to September. The index was behind both the S&P 500, which fell 0.8 percent in November, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 0.9 percent. The hotel brand sub-index dropped 7.2 percent from October while the hotel REIT sub-index slipped 8.9 percent. "Hotel stock price volatility continued in November with both the Hotel brands and Hotel REITs significantly underperforming their respective benchmarks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Two different investment narratives drove stock price performance during the month: In early November, third quarter earnings were better than expected, reopening optimism continued to gain momentum, and the hotel brands were hitting new all-time highs; but, by the end of the month, broader growth and inflation concerns surfaced, the Omicron variant spooked investors and impacted all travel-related stocks, and the hotel REITs were hitting new year-to-date lows."

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY hotels continued to perform well in November with recovery indices up compared to October and 2019, according to a report from The Highland Group. However, the market is showing signs of slowing. All extended-stay segments posted RevPAR gains in November compared to last year, the US Extended-Stay Hotels Bulletin: November 2022 report said. "Monthly gains in ADR and RevPAR have decelerated for most of the year and November increases were the lowest in 2022. Both economy and mid-price segments reported RevPAR increases well below the rate of inflation for the first time in November," the report said. "ADR growth is still high compared to long-term averages but with the economy segment reporting its eighth consecutive monthly decline in demand and mid-price extended-stay hotel demand also declining in November, rate resistance is building especially at lower price points."

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 2.7 percent in November according to STR. However, hotel stocks were relative underperformers during the month for the first time since June. The index jumped 15.8 percent in October. The index was down 5.5 percent year-to-date through the first 11 months of 2022. In November, the Baird/STR Hotel Stock Index fell behind both the S&P 500, up 5.4 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 5.6 percent. The hotel brand sub-index increased 3.7 percent from October to 9,804, while the Hotel REIT sub-index fell 0.2 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased in the second week of November compared to the week before, according to STR. All performance metrics improved during the week compared to same period in 2019 as well. Occupancy was 64.6 for the week ending Nov. 12, up from 62.4 the week before and increased 0.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $148.43 during the week, improved from $147.48 the week before and up 17.1 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $95.89 during the second week of November, increased from $91.99 the week before and up 18.2 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Norfolk/Virginia Beach reported the largest occupancy increase, up 14.3 percent to 63.6 percent, over November 2019. San Diego posted the largest ADR increase, increased 35.2 percent to $202.86, over 2019.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index rose 12.7 percent in December over the previous month. It was up 25.6 percent for 2021 as a whole. The index outperformed both the S&P 500, up 4.4 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which rose 8.2 percent in December. The hotel brand sub-index increased 13.2 percent from November while the Hotel REIT sub-index rose 10.9 percent. Investment was bolstered by some, if not good, then less bad than expected news regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel stocks ended a volatile year with strong gains in December as the worst-case scenarios related to the Omicron variant appeared unlikely to unfold as initially feared," Bellisario said. "With the big rebound into year-end, the hotel brands ended up slightly outperforming the S&P 500 in 2021, while the hotel REITs - despite gaining 12 percent on the year - significantly lagged the RMZ's best-ever annual performance. Turning the calendar to 2022, leisure travel strength is expected to persist, but the wildcard for the overall industry's continued recovery remains a more substantialreturn of the business traveler."

ECONOMIC HEADWINDS AND geopolitical concerns are expected to affect U.S. hotel performance in 2024, according to PwC. The issues include continuing high interest rates and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Occupancy levels have consistently decreased over the past seven months compared to the same period in 2022. This downward trend is anticipated to persist for the remainder of this year and extend into at least the first quarter of 2024. However, PwC forecasts a 63 percent annual occupancy rate for US hotels this year. Hotels in the U.S. experienced a weakening in leisure demand during the latter part of this year, as global vacation destinations reopened, and leisure travelers regained confidence in traveling abroad, PwC said in its latest report titled U.S. Hospitality Directions: November 2023. Moreover, gains in individual and group business travel haven't completely counteracted this softening.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the fourth week of October compared to the week before, according to STR. When compared to 2019, occupancy increased as a result of the Halloween calendar shift, as the holiday fell during the comparable week three years ago. STR reminded that in the first week of November performance metrics will show the negative side of that shift. Occupancy was 65.8 percent for the week ending Oct. 29, down from 69.9 percent the week before and up 5.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $152.94 during the week, dipped from $157.43 the week before and up 21.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $100.59 during the week, down from $110.11 the week before and up 27.8 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Tampa reported the largest increase in each of the key performance metrics: occupancy up 21.5 percent to 76.1 percent, ADR increased 42.1 percent to $158.38 and RevPAR improved 72.5 percent to $120.58, over 2019. Tampa has been one of the markets in Florida that have seen a performance lift associated with post-Hurricane Ian demand.

NOVEMBER BROUGHT A little less for U.S. hotels to be thankful for compared to the prior month, according to STR, but also saw improvements over 2019's performance. Meanwhile, with Christmas a week away, performance surpassed the comparable time period for 2019. Occupancy for November reached 57.6 percent, down from 62.9 percent in October and down 6.2 percent compared to 2019. October's occupancy was 8.8 percent lower than the same month in 2019. ADR was $128.50 for the month, lower than October's $134.78 but 2.4 percent higher than November 2019. RevPAR also was down on a month-to-month basis, $74.03 versus $84.75, but it was only down 3.9 percent from the same month in 2019 versus a 7.6 percent difference between October 2021 and October 2019. New York City had the highest occupancy for the month among STR's top 25 markets with 71.2 percent. That was still down 17.9 percent from 2019. None of the top 25 markets saw higher occupancy than 2019.

U.S. HOTELS PERFORMANCE was down in the fourth week of December compared to the week before, according to STR. The market also saw lower performance in November compared to October, and performance during the month was also decreased when compared to 2019. Holiday shift affects week Occupancy was 43.9 percent for the week , down from 54.5 percent the week before and decreased 9.7 percent from 2019. ADR was $132.29 during the week, dropped from $135.08 the week before and up 2.3 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $58.04 during the week, decreased from $73.65 the week before and dropped 7.6 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets for the week, Houston reported the highest occupancy increase, up 3.4 percent to 43.1 percent, over 2019. Seattle posted the highest ADR lift, up 19.7 percent to $130.07, over 2019. Miami saw the steepest ADR, down 26.2 percent to $225.08 and RevPAR, dropped 42.4 percent to $138.19, declines from 2019.

U.S. HOTELS RECORDED decreased performance results in November, compared to the preceding month, according to CoStar. However, year-over-year comparisons indicated positive improvements. Occupancy decreased to 58.4 percent in November, compared to 65.8 percent in October, marking a 1.2 percent decline from the previous year. ADR decreased from $161.56 to $151.23, showing a 3.6 percent increase from 2022. RevPAR stood at $88.36, down from $106.38 in the previous month, reflecting a 2.4 percent rise from the preceding year. Among the top 25 markets, New York City achieved the highest occupancy at 84 percent, marking a 6.3 percent year-over-year increase. Markets with the lowest occupancy for the month were Minneapolis at 49.1 percent and St. Louis at 53.2 percent. Meanwhile, the top 25 markets exhibited superior occupancy and ADR compared to all others.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE dropped in the first week of November compared to the week before as expected due to the Halloween calendar shift, according to STR. Performance also weakened when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 62.4 for the week ending Nov. 5, down from 65.8 percent the week before and dropped 9.2 percent from 2019. ADR was $147.48 during the week, decreased from $152.94 the week before and up 11.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $91.99 during the first week of November, down from $100.59 the week before and a slight increase of 1.1 percent from 2019. None of STR's top 25 markets showed an occupancy increase over 2019 during the week after Halloween. Tampa came closest to its pre-pandemic comparable, with an increase of 1 percent to 72.4 percent.

ALL THE PERFORMANCE metrics of U.S. hotels improved in the first week of November, according to STR. However, it remains below the performance reported two years ago. Occupancy was 59.8 percent for the week ending Nov. 6, up from 58.9 percent the week before and a 13 percent drop from the same period in 2019. ADR for the first week of the month was $128.14, up from $127.70 the week before and down 3.2 percent for the same period in 2019. RevPAR increased to $76.61 from $75.28 the week before. It was reduced by 15.8 percent when compared to the same period two years ago. During the week under review, none of STR's top 25 markets recorded an occupancy increase over 2019. Norfolk/Virginia Beach came closest to its 2019 comparable, down only 5.2 percent to 59.9 percent. The largest ADR increase was reported in Miami, up 13.6 percent to $205.56, when compared to two years ago.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was down in the fourth week of November compared to the week before due to the Thanksgiving holiday, according to STR. However, hotel performance was mixed when compared to same period in 2019. Occupancy was 50.4 percent for the week ending Nov. 26, down from 63 percent the week before and decreased 0.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $135.49 during the week, down from $144.50 the week before and up 20.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $68.27 during the week, down from $91.02 the week before and up 19.9 percent from 2019. Minneapolis reported the largest occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets, up 7.6 percent to 42 percent, over 2019.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE moved closer to pre-pandemic levels during the third week of November according to STR. It dipped, however, from the week before. Occupancy was 59.7 percent for the week ending Nov. 20, down from 61.6 percent for the week before and a slight decrease of 2.1 percent from the same period two years ago. ADR for the third week of the month was $126.66, down from $129.98 the week before and increased 1.7 percent when compared to two years ago. RevPAR decreased to $75.60 for the third week of the month from $80.02 the week before, and a slight drop of 0.4 percent for the same period in 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Phoenix saw the largest occupancy increase during the week under review, up 6.4 percent to 76.6 percent over 2019. Miami reported the largest ADR increase when compared to 2019, 25.5 percent to $207.72. Oahu Island, Hawaii, experienced the steepest occupancy decline from 2019, down 35.2 percent to 51.8 percent.

DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE exhibited mixed year-over-year comparisons in the third week of November, according to CoStar. Moreover, both occupancy and RevPAR declined compared to the previous week. Occupancy dropped to 62.4 percent for the week ending Nov. 18, down from the previous week's 64.8 percent, marking a year-over-year decrease of 0.6 percent. ADR saw a slight increase to $156.47, compared to the previous week's $156.01, demonstrating a significant 7 percent uptick from the previous year. Despite a decline to $97.61 in RevPAR compared to the previous week's $101.13, there was a noteworthy 6.3 percent rise from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, Boston led with the largest year-over-year occupancy gain, surging by 11.0 percent to reach 77.2 percent.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE increased at the beginning of December as expected, compared to the last week of November, according to CoStar. Hotel occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR improved compared to the previous week. Occupancy increased to 54.2 percent for the week ending Dec. 2, up from the prior week's 49.4 percent, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 1.6 percent. ADR rose to $144.88, compared to the previous week's $138.29, showing a 0.8percent uptick from the prior year. RevPAR also rose to $78.54, compared to the prior week's $68.32, marking a 0.8 percent decrease from the corresponding period in 2022. Among the top 25 markets, New York City saw the largest year-over-year increases in occupancy, rising by 6.8 percent to 83.5 percent, and RevPAR surged by 17.2 percent to $319.18. Las Vegas recorded the highest ADR increase, rising by 11.2 percent to $232.94.

THE UPWARD MOVEMENT of ADR for U.S. hotels lifted the forecast for the market by STR and Tourism Economics. The travel research firms released the new forecast during the opening sessions of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit in Los Angeles on Monday. The recovery timeline laid out in the new forecast remains mostly the same as the previous forecast released in November, with ADR will near full recovery this year. RevPAR is anticipated to exceed 2019 levels in 2023, but when adjusted for inflation ADR and RevPAR are not projected to reach full recovery until after 2025. Occupancy is projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2023. "The industry recaptured 83 percent of pre-pandemic RevPAR levels in 2021, and momentum is expected to pick up after a slow start to this year," said Carter Wilson, STR's senior vice president of consulting. "With so much of that RevPAR recovery being led by leisure-driven ADR, however, it is important to keep an eye on the real versus the nominal. Terms of recovery are not playing out evenly across the board, and many hoteliers have had to raise rates to minimize the bottom-line hit from labor and supply shortages. We are anticipating inflation to remain higher throughout the first half of the year with a gradual leveling off during the third and fourth quarters. If that happens, and we avoid major setbacks with the pandemic, this year will certainly be one to watch with demand and occupancy also shaping up to hit significant levels during the second half."

PROFITS FOR U.S. hotels reached a 28-month high in March, according to STR. Spring break travel and higher rates are pushing performance up on all levels. GOPPAR was $83.81 for the month, the highest level for the metric since November 2019. It was less than $10 shy of reaching the pre-pandemic comparable from March 2019. In February GOPPAR stood at $58.88. EBITDA PAR was $62.68, TRevPAR was $204.84 and labor costs per room were $61.45. For the latter two it was their highest mark since March 2020.