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DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE's November 2022 Hotel Horizons forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in RevPAR in 2023. This is up from CBRE's previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023. Propelling CBRE's increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in ADR, driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. to increase by 3.5 percent year over year. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressuring margins. Supply and Demand Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and remodels given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic. Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product, CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE's occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.

HYATT HOTELS CORP. reported $26 million in net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $220 million for the year. Comparable system-wide RevPAR grew by 9.1 percent during the same period and 17 percent for the full year of 2023, outperforming figures from 2022 and exceeding the previous full-year outlook. Adjusted net income reached $68 million in Q4 and $276 million for full-year 2023, Hyatt said in a statement. "The fourth quarter marks the completion of a transformative year and demonstrates the progress towards our strategic vision and earnings evolution," said Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's president and CEO. "RevPAR growth exceeded the high end of our guidance range and we had industry-leading net rooms growth for the seventh consecutive year. This led to a record level of fees and the highest free cash flow in Hyatt's history. We returned $500 million to our shareholders and achieved an asset-light earnings mix of approximately 76 percent for the full year, a testament to the successful execution of our strategy."

U.S. HOTEL REVENUES and profitability saw an increase in 2023 compared to 2022, with improvements in group business across the top 25 markets and upper-scale chains, according to STR's 2023 P&L data. Overall, 14 of the top 25 markets reported double-digit increases in GOPPAR. "Total industry revenues and profits were well beyond 2022 levels as pricing power continued to outweigh the impact of softer leisure demand," said Claudia Alvarado Cruz, senior analytics manager at STR. "A lift in corporate demand made improvements especially notable across the upper-upscale brands and major markets. New York City was the shining example with 47 percent growth in GOPPAR." In 2023, GOPPAR reached $75.83, marking an 8.2 percent increase from 2022. TRevPAR stood at $211.49, indicating a 9.6 percent rise, while EBITDA PAR amounted to $53.05, up 7.6 percent from the prior year. Labor costs notably increased, reaching $71.56, reflecting a 13.2 percent rise.

DRIVEN BY STRONGER-than-expected demand and moderate supply, CBRE has raised its forecast for hotel performance again this year, resulting in increased occupancy. CBRE revised its forecast for 2023 RevPAR to $97.89, up 6 percent year-over-year and an increase of $0.43 rise from the previous forecast. This positive revision is based on a 65-basis-point increase in expected occupancy compared to the previous forecast issued in February, CBRE said in a statement. Furthermore, the ADR is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2023, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.2 percent. According to CBRE Hotels Research, this is primarily due to slightly lower inflation expectations and a higher proportion of group travel and shoulder-period demand, which typically have lower rates. CBRE's baseline scenario forecast envisages an average GDP growth of 0.8 percent and average inflation of 4.6 percent in 2023. Given the strong correlation between GDP and RevPAR growth, changes in the economic outlook will directly impact the performance of the lodging industry, CBRE noted. "We are already starting to see signs that the easing of travel restrictions in Japan and China, combined with continued improvements in group and independent business demand, are bolstering demand heading into the heavy summer travel season," said Rachael Rothman, head of hotel research & data analytics at CBRE.

STR AND TOURISM ECONOMICS have increased year-over-year growth projections for ADR and RevPAR in the final revision of the U.S. hotel forecast for 2023. While some factors, such as higher interest rates and more restrictive lending, may impact the economy, their effect on the travel industry is not expected to be strong. In 2023, RevPAR saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, propelled by a 0.6ppt rise in ADR growth, according to STR and TE. Meanwhile, recent RevPAR trends affirm rate as the predominant performance driver. Occupancy was downgraded by 0.2ppts, STR and TE said in a statement. Growth projections for key performance metrics in 2024 remained flat from the previous forecast, reflecting the stabilization of long-term average trends.

THE BAIRD/STR Hotel Stock Index was down 2.5 percent in February 2023 as the focus turned to earnings and initial 2023 outlooks, according to STR. Investors' confidence also was boosted some by strong fourth quarter results and rising demand. During the month, the Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, down 2.6 percent and the MSCI US REIT Index, fell 4.9 percent, STR said in a report. Meanwhile, the index jumped 16.4 percent in January. According to the STR, the Hotel Brand sub-index decreased 1.2 percent from January to 10,219, while the Hotel REIT sub-index dropped 7 percent to 1,130. "Hotel stocks, just like the broader market, pulled back in February as the focus turned to earnings and initial 2023 outlooks," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "The global hotel brand stocks, while down slightly during the month, outperformed the S&P 500 on the heels on strong fourth quarter earnings reports and guidance that matched expectations; hotel REITs were weaker and relatively underperformed as investors focused on somewhat mixed fourth quarter earnings reports and 2023 guidance that embedded heightened expense pressures and outsized renovation disruption."

THE GLOBAL HOTEL construction pipeline achieved unprecedented project counts in the fourth quarter of 2023, led by the U.S. with 5,964 projects and 693,963 rooms, according to Lodging Econometrics. The total pipeline comprises 15,196 projects and 2,367,727 rooms, signaling a remarkable 7 percent increase in projects and a 3percent increase in rooms year-over-year. LE's Q4 2023 Global Hotel Construction Pipeline Trend Report highlights the dominance of the U.S. and China, which collectively account for 64 percent of all global projects. The U.S. led the global pipeline with 39 percent of total projects. Among the top five cities with the largest construction pipelines, three are in the U.S.: Dallas leads with 193 projects with 22,291 rooms, followed by Atlanta with 151 projects with 18,730 rooms, and Nashville with 123 projects with 16,148 rooms.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL occupancy declined across 59 MSAs in 2023 compared to 2019, primarily due to significant ADR growth over the past three years, according to The Highland Group. Additionally, extended-stay hotel RevPAR surged in more than 80 percent of MSAs, with ten of them, including four major hotel markets, experiencing gains exceeding 10 percent. Despite an 8 percent increase in the number of extended-stay hotel rooms under construction in the 100 largest MSAs over the past year, the figures remain below pre-pandemic levels, the report said. The resurgence in occupancy was notably led by smaller markets, where strong ADR increases and supply expansion played pivotal roles in driving the lowest occupancy recovery indices for MSAs in 2023.

U.S. EXTENDED-STAY HOTEL room revenues increased by $1.1 billion in 2023, similar to 2018 and 2019, though with a lower relative gain due to a larger room base, according to The Highland Group. All three extended-stay segments reported record-high room revenues in 2023, with the upscale segment leading despite previously lagging behind the pandemic recovery. The 6.1 percent increase in extended-stay hotel revenues outpaced the corresponding 5.5 percent gain reported by STR/CoStar for the overall hotel industry, the report said. However, extended-stay hotel supply experienced its smallest annual increase on record in 2023, at just 1.8 percent. Factors such as re-branding, de-flagging of non-compliant hotels, and sales to other sectors influenced supply fluctuations, a trend expected to persist into the first half of 2024, particularly with older extended-stay hotels remaining on the market. The report also highlighted a 6.6 percent increase in economy extended-stay supply, alongside modest gains in mid-price and upscale segments, primarily driven by conversions. New construction in the economy segment is estimated at around 3 percent of rooms open compared to one year ago.

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE was down in the first week of 2023 compared to the week before mainly due to post-holiday seasonality and an unfavorable calendar shift, according to STR. Performance metrics for the week was down compared to same period in 2019 as it was a full business week. Occupancy was 47.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 7, down from 54.2 percent the week before and decreased 11.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $142.82 during the week, decreased from $167.21 the week before and up 11.2 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $67.40 in the first week of 2023, dipped from $90.63 the week before and down 1.5 percent from 2019. Orlando was the only STR top 25 market to report an occupancy increase, 2 percent to 71.3 percent, over 2019.

OFFICIALS OF THE "She Has a Deal" annual hotel investment pitch contest announced the five teams selected to advance to the final round of SHaDPitch 2023. The competition allows early career women to compete for the prize of $50,000 of equity in SHaD's Prosperity Fund I, following the conclusion of a virtual, preliminary round of pitching, SHaD said in a statement. SHaD 2023 will be held at the new Marriott Headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland, on April 27 to 28. According to the statement, the goal of SHaD is to increase the number of women owning and developing hotels. It provides participants with the ability to source, analyse, raise capital and close hotel real estate investment deals. During the preliminary judging round, eight teams comprising 15 participants pitched their hotel investment acquisition or development projects live on Zoom to a judging panel of hotel business executives, entrepreneurs, and investors. The judges evaluated and selected the following five teams: Sydney Young and Rachel Nicholson with SpartanStone, graduates of Michigan State University, pitching a La Quinta Inn & Suites in Lewisville, Texas. Chandler Williamson with Chanders Core Commitment, graduate of North Carolina Central University, pitching a Hilton Garden Inn in Raleigh/Durham, North Carolina. Isabella Suffredini, Veronica Lewis and Alexandra Neoman with CROWN, graduates of Cornell University, pitching a TownePlace Suites in Houston, Texas. Makenna Price with Hookipa Hospitality, graduate of Washington State University, pitching a Fairfield Inn & Suites in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida Allison Busch and Hannah Takekawa with AH Hospitality, graduates of San Diego State University, pitching a Staybridge Suites in Austin, Texas "Every year, I grow more encouraged that we are making an impact," said Tracy Prigmore, founder of SHaD. "These are brilliant women who benefit from the education and programming that SHaD provides, and their hotel investment acumen has grown by leap

THE AMERICAN HOTEL & Lodging Association has announced the dates, cities, and registration information for its "On the Road" State Hotel Conferences for 17 states in 2023. The conferences will provide hoteliers, suppliers, and service providers opportunities to connect with their peers as well as hospitality and policy leaders to learn about the latest news and information affecting the hotel and lodging industry, AHLA said in a statement. Anyone who works in the hotel industry can attend these half-day, free events, it added. "AHLA's 'On The Road' State Hotel Conferences are designed to help local hoteliers connect with their peers, gain insights on national and local market business performance trends and learn from top hospitality leaders, service providers and policy experts," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "The events are also a vital tool to help AHLA build coalitions, grow our grassroots network and rally hoteliers around the industry's goals and initiatives. We are excited to bring AHLA's successful On The Road State Hotel Conference series to a record number of cities in 2023." AHLA will host these conferences in partnership with its state or city lodging association partners. Since starting with four events in 2021, AHLA's On The Road State Hotel Conferences have brought together thousands of hoteliers in cities across the nation. Last year, 11 events were held.

FIVE PROPERTIES IN the hihotels by Hospitality International portfolio have won the brand's 2023 awards for meeting and exceeding the company's standards of operations. All are Asian American owned. The hihotels 2023 winners are: President's Award - Scottish Inns & Suites in Hitchcock, Texas, owned by Nareshkumar Patel and Tejal Patel. Given to a franchisee who has been loyal to hihotels by Hospitality International, consistently demonstrated a willingness to accept positive change within the hotel industry, and received positive communication from their guests. Gander Award - Red Carpet Inn in Rochester, Minnesota, owned by Veena Patel. Given to a franchisee who embraces their local community in offering sponsorship for local events or teams, participates in charitable events, or embraces the needs of the local community. Named after Gander the service dog from Operation Fetch, a non-profit that performs planned acts of community kindness to further appreciation, education and awareness about service dogs PTSD, and dogs for visible and invisible wounds.

TOTAL EXTENDED-STAY HOTELS achieved new fourth-quarter milestones in 2023, setting records in supply, demand, ADR, RevPAR, and room revenues, according to The Highland Group. Despite this, occupancy declined alongside the broader hotel industry trend, with slower growth in ADR and RevPAR throughout the year. Consequently, extended-stay hotel RevPAR experienced its smallest fourth quarter increase since 2019, excluding contractionary periods. Extended-stay hotel supply growth increased marginally in 2023 but remained very low, the report said. The last time supply growth consistently hovered around its current level was from the fourth quarter of 2010 through the third quarter of 2014. Throughout this period, supply increases stayed below their long-term historical average for 20 consecutive quarters, while the federal funds rate was about 10 times higher than its current level. With interest rates and construction costs expected to stay relatively high, the risk of extended stay hotel oversupply nationally is low in the near term, despite the launch of several new brands, The Highland Group said.

IN RECENT WEEKS, CBRE Hotels Research has revised its forecast for the hospitality industry upward in light of several factors, such as rising occupancy levels, improvement in domestic travel and some opening in international travel. Recent developments, however, including the rise of the Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19, elevates the uncertainty level of those forecasts, but still the industry is expected to return to 2019 levels by the second half of 2023 rather than 2024. Hotel occupancy in the third quarter rose 35.1 percent over the previous year, according to CBRE's December 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons. ADR also saw gains, reaching 2019 nominal levels in the third quarter. "CBRE expects ADR will continue to exceed 2019 levels, followed by a demand recovery in early 2023," CBRE said in a statement. "Pent-up demand for leisure destinations, an increase in household personal savings and fewer constraints on availability compared with earlier in the pandemic contributed to the brisk pace of ADR recovery. The resumption of inbound international travel will help gateway markets regain occupancy in the coming year."

REVPAR FOR U.S extended-stay economy, mid-scale and upscale segments is recovering back to pre-pandemic levels, according to a report from consulting firm The Highland Group. Total extended-stay hotel occupancy is very close to the first quarter levels reported in 2016 and 2017 but below its peak years since 2015. "Overall, first quarter extended-stay hotel ADR was the highest ever reported in 2023 and all three segments have more than fully recovered their 2019 nominal ADR values," the report said. In its "2023 First Quarter U.S. Extended-Stay Hotels Report," Highland said the economy and mid-price extended-stay hotels made considerable gains in RevPAR relative to corresponding classes of all hotels between 2019 and 2023. Due to high concentration of rooms in urban markets, upscale extended-stay hotels have seen RevPAR decline slightly relative to all upscale class hotels. However, the gap is expected to narrow as urban markets make a full recovery, the report noted. "Rising interest rates and construction costs, as well as tightening loan underwriting, means extended-stay supply growth should be relatively low nationally for two to three years. Assuming the overall hotel industry does not endure a correction, extended-stay hotels should set more new performance records during the near term at least," says Mark Skinner, partner at The Highland Group.

THE HOTEL INDUSTRY is poised for a fairly strong year in 2023 despite remaining concerns about a downturn, according to a pair of reports. Continuing demand is expected to overcome extra labor costs and economic vagaries to propel performance above pre-pandemic levels, according to the reports from the American Hotel & Lodging Association and STR. The state of the industry AHLA's 2023 State of the Hotel Industry Report projects that demand, nominal room revenue and state and local tax revenue all are well on the way to recovery. Operational challenges, such as staffing shortages and economic factors will replace COVID as hoteliers' top concerns, the report predicts. "Three years after the unprecedented hardships our industry faced due to the pandemic, hotels continue to make significant strides toward recovery," said Chip Rogers, AHLA president and CEO. "2022 saw one of the strongest summer travel seasons ever, and this year we expect hotels to reach new heights in terms of room revenue, room-night demand and state and local tax revenue. But when inflation is taken into account, our industry likely won't see full recovery for several more years. Nevertheless, hotel performance is trending in the right direction - great news for our industry and our employees, who are enjoying better pay, more career opportunities, upward mobility and flexibility than ever before."

DALLAS TAKES THE lead in top five U.S. hotel construction markets in the third quarter of 2023, setting a record with 189 projects and 21,840 rooms, according to Lodging Econometrics. The top markets all saw growth in new openings as well. Atlanta follows closely with 140 projects and 17,775 Rooms, while Nashville comes next with 122 projects and 16,046 rooms. Phoenix recorded 119 projects, totaling 16,455 rooms, while the Inland Empire reported 117 projects comprising 11,784 rooms, according to the third quarter United States Construction Pipeline Trend Report by LE. New York City leads with the highest number of projects under construction, totaling 46, and 8,386 rooms at the close of the third quarter, LE said. Phoenix follows with 26 projects and 5,353 rooms, followed closely by Atlanta with 26 projects and 4,354 rooms. Dallas trails with 25 projects and 3,178 rooms, and the Inland Empire with 23 projects and 2,386 rooms.

U.S. HOTEL REVENUE and profitability saw a rise in October, propelled by increased group demand across the top 25 markets, according to CoStar's October 2023 Profit & Loss data. Meanwhile, the U.S. hospitality industry also witnessed its largest year-over-year increases in GOPPAR and TRevPAR since March 2023. In October, GOPPAR reached $97.45, marking a 3.7 percent increase from the same month in 2022. TRevPAR stood at $240.74, indicating a 4 percent increase, whereas EBITDA PAR amounted to $69.60, down 1.2 percent from September 2022. Labor costs notably rose to $74.48, reflecting a 5.9 percent increase. "The top 25 markets have demonstrated an 11 percent year-to-date increase in GOPPAR, surpassing a 14 percent rise in labor costs," said Audrey Kallman, research analyst at STR. "This double-digit GOPPAR growth is over 10 times the level observed in all other markets. New York City, a prominent business-centric market, spearheaded growth in the metric across major markets both on a year-to-date and monthly basis."

A STRONGER THAN expected performance by U.S. hotels in the fourth quarter of 2021 led CBRE Hotels Research to upgrade its forecast for the rest of 2022. CBRE now forecasts RevPAR will reach 2019 nominal levels by the third quarter of this year, one year earlier than the previous forecast. Occupancy is expected to rise 6.7 percent to 61.3 percent this year, then rise 5.2 percent to 64.4 percent in 2023. ADR is forecast to rise 10.1 percent to $133.94 in 2022 and go up 6 percent more to $141.99 in 2023. CBRE expects RevPAR to rise 17.5 percent in 2022 overall to $82.04 and then rise 11.5 percent to $91.46 in 2023. Positive trends, such as high employment and the return to the office for many workers who had been working from home contributed to the revised forecast, CBRE said. Other factors contributing to the improvement include below-average supply growth, strong domestic leisure trends, the resumption of inbound international travel and a predicted return to office later this year. However, ongoing inflation and geopolitical tensions connected to the war in Ukraine still threaten progress.