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THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index jumped in July, ending a downward trend for two consecutive months. The index decreased 10.4 percent year-to-date for the first seven months of 2022. Baird/STR Index recorded a sharp increase of 14.3 percent in July, according to STR. The index fell 19.3 percent in June and dropped 5.8 percent in May. It went up 0.7 percent during April. It increased 2.2 percent in March after rising 4.1 percent in February. The Baird/STR Index surpassed both the S&P 500, up 9.1 percent from June, and the MSCI US REIT Index, increased 8.7 percent, respectively during July. The hotel brand sub-index rose 14.2 percent from June, while the Hotel REIT sub-index increased 14.6 percent during the month. "Hotel stocks rebounded sharply and outperformed their respective benchmarks in July; relative outperformance has continued in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Despite the big gains in July, hotel stocks did not fully recapture June's losses. Positively, second quarter earnings exceeded analysts' and investors' expectations, and broader recession fears have begun to subside, which has boosted sentiment and stock prices. All eyes are on the post-Labor Day outlook that should reflect a more normalized travel environment."

U.S. HOTEL PERFORMANCE bounced back in the third week of July after two consecutive weeks of lower demand due to the Independence Day holiday, according to STR. Occupancy was 72 percent for the week ending July 16, up from 63.3 percent the week before and dropped 7.4 percent from 2019. ADR was $157.23 for the week, up from $153.71 the week before and increased 14.9 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $113.28 during the week, up from $97.37 the week before and increased 6.4 percent from 2019. San Diego reported the only occupancy increase among STR's top 25 markets during the week, up 1 percent to 89.9 percent, over 2019. According to STR, San Diego (89.9 percent), Oahu Island (87.2 percent) and Seattle (85.8 percent) led the major markets in absolute occupancy. Miami posted the largest ADR gain, up 29.9 percent to $204.15, over three years ago. Only San Francisco reported an ADR decrease, down 4.1 percent to $229.24, compared to 2019.

U.S. HOTELS REPORTED record-high monthly room rates on a nominal basis in July, according to STR. RevPAR on a nominal basis hit an all-time high during the month and occupancy was the second highest since August 2019. However, performance dipped some in the third week of August on a weekly basis, but performance improved during the week over 2019. Occupancy was 69.6 percent in July, down from 70.1 percent in June and down 5.4 percent from three years ago. ADR was $159.08 during the month, up from 155.04 in June and up 17.5 percent over 2019. RevPAR reached $110.73 in July, up from $108.64 the month before and increased 11.2 percent three years ago. At the same time, occupancy dropped to 67.3 percent for the week ending August 20, down from 68.5 percent the week before and dropped 3.9 percent from 2019. ADR was $150.96 for the week, decreased from $152.34 the week before and increased 16.7 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $101.59 during the week, fell from $104.30 the week before and increased 12.2 percent from 2019.

ALL PERFORMANCE METRICS of U.S. hotels improved in the fourth week of July and RevPAR reached an all-time high on a nominal basis during the week, according to STR. Occupancy was the highest since early August 2019 in the week. Occupancy was 72.8 percent for the week ending July 23, up from 72 percent the week before and dropped 6 percent from 2019. ADR was $158.79 for the week, up from $157.23 the week before and increased 16.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $115.59 during the week, up from $113.28 the week before and increased 9.3 percent from 2019. Among STR's top 25 markets, Orlando reported the only occupancy increase, up 2.2 percent to 81.8 percent, over 2019. San Diego (87.1 percent) led the markets in absolute occupancy during the week, followed by Oahu Island (86.2 percent) and Seattle (85.7 percent). San Diego also posted the largest ADR gain, increased 40.5 percent to $286.50, over 2019.

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THERE WAS A slight dip in U.S. hotel performance in the fifth week of July compared to the week before, which was the traditional summer travel peak, according to STR. Performance metrics for hotels were lower during the week compared to the week before, but higher when compared to 2019. Occupancy was 71.9 percent for the week ending July 30, down from 72.8 percent the week before and dropped 3.8 percent from 2019. ADR was $158.32 for the week, a slight dip from $158.79 the week before and increased 18.3 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $113.90 during the week, down from $115.59 the week before and up 13.9 percent from 2019. Nashville reported the largest occupancy increase during the post summer travel peak week, up 4.2 percent to 77.8 percent, over 2019 among STR's top 25 markets. The highest occupancy were in San Diego (87.4 percent), Boston (85.5 percent), and Oahu Island (85.3 percent) during the week under review.

THE RevPAR OF U.S. hotels in the third week of May was the highest it has been since mid-July 2019, according to STR. Also, all metrics in April as a month improved compared to March, and hotels reported all-time high room rates during the period. Occupancy was 68.6 percent for the week ending May 21, up from 66.5 percent the week before and down 3.5 percent from 2019. ADR was $151.75 for the week, increased from $148.31 the week before and up 13.4 percent from three years ago. RevPAR reached $104.06 percent during the week, up from $98.59 the week before and rose 9.5 percent from 2019. STR's top 25 markets saw their highest weekly occupancy, ADR and RevPAR levels of the pandemic-era during the week.

THE BAIRD/STR HOTEL Stock Index dropped 2.4 percent to 5,600, influenced by increasing interest rates affecting both real estate stocks and investor sentiment, according to STR. Moreover, U.S. hotel demand saw a 1.3 percent decrease in October, linked in part to a calendar shift. This marks the third consecutive month of stock decline after a surge in July. "Hotel stocks declined for the third straight month in October, aligning with broader market trends," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Elevated interest rates continued to drive performance, with real estate stocks bearing the brunt. Hotel REITs stood out as relative outperformers. The global hotel brands experienced a roughly 2 percent decrease, closely mirroring the S&P 500's retreat in October." In October, the Baird/STR Index fell behind the S&P 500, down 2.2 percent, but surpassed the MSCI US REIT Index, down 4.5 percent.

IN ANOTHER SIGN of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, this year's Super Bowl is expected to bring increases in hotel business to host city Los Angeles, according to STR. ADR and RevPAR are projected to reach the second-highest levels for any Super Bowl weekend on record. During the weekend of the game, Feb. 11 to 13, STR forecasts that ADR will reach $445 and RevPAR will be around $396 in the L.A. market. Occupancy is expected to hit 89 percent as fans flock in for the game. "Since July, the Los Angeles hotel market has consistently achieved monthly rates near or above pre-pandemic levels," said Blake Reiter, STR's director of custom forecasts. "Occupancy has been rapidly improving toward 2019 levels as well, but it hasn't reflected the same degree of recovery. We expect there will be, at least to a certain extent, a curtailing of occupancy because of COVID. Of course, if the NFL decides to switch venues as media reports have suggested, or implement more stringent protocols, L.A. hotel performance will certainly be among the ripple effects." Los Angeles's Super Bowl hotel occupancy is projected to outperform last year's venue, Tampa, Florida, which saw 82.4 percent occupancy when the home team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, defeated the Kansas City Chiefs. However, it is well below the 92.8 percent Miami saw when it hosted the game in 2020, and also is lower than what L.A. saw over the comparable weekend period in 2020, 87.7 percent.

AS MANY AS 47.9 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home over the Independence Day weekend from June 30 to July 4, an increase of 3.7 percent over 2021, according to AAA Travel. It added that car travel will set a new record, despite historically high gas prices, with 42 million people hitting the road mainly due to recent issues with air travel and ongoing concerns of cancelations and delays. Independence Day will be the second busiest since 2000, as travel volumes continue to trend upwards, AAA said in a statement. However, the share of air travel will be the lowest since 2011. According to AAA, 46.2 million people traveled during Independence Day last year and the number was 49 million in 2019, before the pandemic.

The index decreased 12.6 percent year-to-date through the first eight months of 2022. In August it also surpassed both the S&P 500, down 4.2 percent, and the MSCI US REIT Index, which dropped 6.1 percent. Also, the hotel brand sub-index fell 2.3 percent from July to 8,959, while the hotel REIT sub-index dropped 3.7 percent to 1,143. "Hotel stocks took a breather in August after July's sharp rebound. Despite the slight decline in stock prices, both the Global Hotel Brands and Hotel REITs outperformed their respective benchmarks in August," said Michael Bellisario, senior hotel research analyst and director at Baird. "Hotel trends have remained solid throughout the summer months despite all the capital markets volatility and macroeconomic uncertainties. However, investors appear somewhat skeptical about the prospects for a significant recovery in business transient travel post-Labor Day, and hotel stocks appear to be discounting this relatively conservative fundamental expectation, in our opinion."

U.S. HOSPITALITY SECTOR has consistently maintained the highest quit rates by workers among all industries, consistently exceeding 4.5 percent since July 2021, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. However, the leisure and hospitality sector maintained the highest hiring rate among all industries, fluctuating between 6 percent and nearly 19 percent. These industries saw a loss of 837 thousand workers in September, yet 1.1 million individuals were hired into the industry during the same month. This hiring rate exceeds the national average, which was 3.7 percent in September 2023, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said in its latest report titled Understanding America's Labor Shortage: The Most Impacted Industries. The latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reveals a positive influx of individuals into the workforce.