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anonymous

Economic View - The Overconfidence Problem in Forecasting - NYTimes.com - 1 views

  • BUSINESSES in nearly every industry were caught off guard by the Great Recession. Few leaders in business — or government, for that matter — seem to have even considered the possibility that an economic downturn of this magnitude could happen.
  • What was wrong with their thinking? These decision-makers may have been betrayed by a flaw that has been documented in hundreds of studies: overconfidence.
    • anonymous
       
      Overconfidence! Emotion blinding one to reality. Hubris is what the Greeks called it. No matter how mathematical the Wall Street Quants (MIT, CalTech graduates who have been hired in huge numbers to write algorithms to figure out the stock market) try to make things, human emotions and personalities will always play a factor in any prediction in economics or any science for that matter.
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  • Most of us think that we are “better than average” in most things. We are also “miscalibrated,” meaning that our sense of the probability of events doesn’t line up with reality. When we say we are sure about a certain fact, for example, we may well be right only half the time.
    • anonymous
       
      Hopefully, by now, you see this as a totally TOK paragraph!!!
  • Some economists have questioned whether such experimental findings are relevant in competitive markets. They suggest that students, who often serve as guinea pigs in such tests, are overconfident, but that the top managers in large companies are well calibrated. A recent paper, however, reveals that this hopeful view is itself overconfident.
    • anonymous
       
      Great relevance to this year's TOK Essay Topic #2 "How important are the opinions of experts in the search for knowledge?"
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    "BUSINESSES in nearly every industry were caught off guard by the Great Recession. Few leaders in business - or government, for that matter - seem to have even considered the possibility that an economic downturn of this magnitude could happen. "
anonymous

Wanted - Baby Sitters With Foreign Language Skills - NYTimes.com - 1 views

  • “Once you are trilingual,” she said, “your brain can break down new languages that make it so much easier to learn your fourth, fifth and sixth languages.”
  • In fact, research shows that learning a second language makes it easier to learn additional languages. In recent years, a number of neuroscientists and psychologists have tried to untangle the impact of bilingualism on brain development. “It doesn’t make kids smarter,” said Ellen Bialystok, a professor of psychology at York University in Toronto and the author of “Bilingualism in Development: Language, Literacy and Cognition.” “There are documented cognitive developments,” she said, “but whatever smarter means, it isn’t true.”
  • Ms. Bialystok’s research shows that bilingual children tend to have smaller vocabularies in English than their monolingual counterparts, and that the limited vocabulary tends to be words used at home (spatula and squash) rather than words used at school (astronaut, rectangle). The measurement of vocabulary is always in one language: a bilingual child’s collective vocabulary from both languages will probably be larger.
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  • “Bilingualism carries a cost, and the cost is rapid access to words,” Ms. Bialystok said. In other words, children have to work harder to access the right word in the right language, which can slow them down — by milliseconds, but slower nonetheless.
  • At the same time, bilingual children do better at complex tasks like isolating information presented in confusing ways. In one test researchers frequently use, words like “red” and “green” flash across a screen, but the words actually appear in purple and yellow. Bilingual children are faster at identifying what color the word is written in, a fact researchers attribute to a more developed prefrontal cortex (the part of the brain responsible for executive decision-making, like which language to use with certain people). Ms. D’Souza said that both of her sons lagged their peers by almost a year in verbal development. Her pediatrician recommended speech therapy, and one son’s preschool teacher expressed concern that he did not know the alphabet. But when both started speaking, at around 3 years old, they were able to move fluidly among three languages. She said that her older son tested in the 99th percentile for the city’s gifted and talented program. “The flexibility of their thinking helps them in nonlinguistic abilities like science and math,” she said, speaking of her children. “But at the same time the normal things — the alphabet — they have trouble with that.”
  • George P. Davison, head of school at Grace Church School, a competitive downtown school, said that bilingualism tended to suppress verbal and reading comprehension test scores by 20 to 30 percent for children younger than 12. “If anything, it can have a negative effect on admissions,” he said.
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    Parenting sites indicate many New York City parents want caregivers to teach their children a language.
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    Some interesting questions as to whether parents can "know" it's a good thing or a bad thing to have their children learn a second language. There are clearly cognitive and social costs and benefits that must be weighed.
anonymous

Plato's Pop Culture Problem, and Ours - NYTimes.com - 1 views

    • anonymous
       
      This is the key question.
  • To answer these questions, we can no longer investigate only the length of our exposure to the mass media; we must focus on its quality: are we passive consumers or active participants? Do we realize that our reaction to representations need not determine our behavior in life?  If so, the influence of the mass media will turn out to be considerably less harmful that many suppose.  If not, instead of limiting access to or reforming the content of the mass media, we should ensure that we, and especially our children, learn to interact intelligently and sensibly with them.  Here, again, philosophy, which questions the relation between representation and life, will have something to say.
  • And while philosophy doesn’t always provide clear answers to our questions, it often reveals what exactly it is that we are asking.
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  • In their book “Grand Theft Childhood,” the authors Lawrence Kutner and Cheryl K. Olson of Harvard Medical School argue that this causal claim is only the result of “bad or irrelevant research, muddleheaded thinking and unfounded, simplistic news reports,.”
  • This fall, the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on a case that may have the unusual result of establishing a philosophical link between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Plato. The case in question is the 2008 decision of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals striking down a California law signed by Gov. Schwarzenegger in 2005, that imposed fines on stores that sell video games featuring “sexual and heinous violence” to minors.  The issue is an old one: one side argues that video games shouldn’t receive First Amendment protection since exposure to violence in the media is likely to cause increased aggression or violence in real life.  The other side counters that the evidence shows nothing more than a correlation between the games and actual violence.
  • To begin with, he accuses it of conflating the authentic and the fake.  Its heroes appear genuinely admirable, and so worth emulating, although they are at best flawed and at worst vicious.  In addition, characters of that sort are necessary because drama requires conflict — good characters are hardly as engaging as bad ones.  Poetry’s subjects are therefore inevitably vulgar and repulsive — sex and violence.  Finally, worst of all, by allowing us to enjoy depravity in our imagination, poetry condemns us to a depraved life. Both Plato and Arnheim ignored the medium of representation, which interposes itself between the viewer and what is represented. This very same reasoning is at  the heart of today’s denunciations of mass media.  Scratch the surface of any attack on the popular arts — the early Christians against the Roman circus, the Puritans against Shakespeare, Coleridge against the novel, the various assaults on photography, film, jazz, television, pop music, the Internet, or video games — and you will find Plato’s criticisms of poetry.  For the fact is that the works of  both Homer and Aeschylus, whatever else they were in classical Athens, were, first and  foremost, popular entertainment.
  • In 1935, Rudolf Arnheim called television “a mere instrument of transmission, which does not offer any new means for the artistic representation of reality.”  He was repeating, unawares, Plato’s ancient charge that, without a “craft” or an art of his own, Homer merely reproduces “imitations,” “images,” or “appearances” of virtue and, worse, images of vice masquerading as virtue.  Both Plato and Arnheim ignored the medium of representation, which interposes itself between the viewer and what is represented.
  • But what about us?  Do we, as Plato thought, move immediately from representation to reality?  If we do, we should be really worried about the effects of television or video games.  Or are we aware that many features of each medium belong to its conventions and do not represent real life?
anonymous

Economic View - College Studies for the Business of Life - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Which raises these questions: What should they be learning? And what kind of foundation is needed to understand and be prepared for the modern economy?
  • There may be no better place than a course in introductory economics. It helps students understand the whirlwind of forces swirling around them. It develops rigorous analytic skills that are useful in a wide range of jobs. And it makes students better citizens, ready to evaluate the claims of competing politicians.
  • Even if you are a skeptic of my field, as many are, there is another, more cynical reason to study it. As the economist Joan Robinson once noted, one purpose of studying economics is to avoid being fooled by economists.
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  • There is a large leap, however, between having data and learning from it. Students need to know the potential of number-crunching, as well as its limitations.
  • Economists like me often pretend that people are rational. That is, with mathematical precision, people are assumed to do the best they can to achieve their goals.
  • or many purposes, this approach is useful. But it is only one way to view human behavior. A bit of psychology is a useful antidote to an excess of classical economics. It reveals flaws in human rationality, including your own.
  • I don’t know if it made me a better economist. But it has surely made me a more humble one, and, I suspect, a better human being as well.
  • Adults of all stripes have advice for the college-bound. Those leaving home and starting their freshman year should listen to it, consider it, reflect on it but ultimately follow their own instincts and passions.
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    To better understand the world in which they will live, students need foundations in economics, statistics, finance and psychology.
anonymous

Mind - Research Upends Traditional Thinking on Study Habits - NYTimes.com - 1 views

    • anonymous
       
      This is such a comment complaint of teachers, namely that students act, from year to year, as if they don't remember every even being introduced to something that the current year teacher thinks is review. Many grade level teachers begin the year thinking their predecessors in the previous year didn't do a good job preparing their students.
  • These findings extend well beyond math, even to aesthetic intuitive learning.
  • The finding undermines the common assumption that intensive immersion is the best way to really master a particular genre, or type of creative work, said Nate Kornell, a psychologist at Williams College and the lead author of the study. “What seems to be happening in this case is that the brain is picking up deeper patterns when seeing assortments of paintings; it’s picking up what’s similar and what’s different about them,” often subconsciously.
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  • But at the very least, the cognitive techniques give parents and students, young and old, something many did not have before: a study plan based on evidence, not schoolyard folk wisdom, or empty theorizing.
  • “With many students, it’s not like they can’t remember the material” when they move to a more advanced class, said Henry L. Roediger III, a psychologist at Washington University in St. Louis. “It’s like they’ve never seen it before.”
  • That’s one reason cognitive scientists see testing itself — or practice tests and quizzes — as a powerful tool of learning, rather than merely assessment. The process of retrieving an idea is not like pulling a book from a shelf; it seems to fundamentally alter the way the information is subsequently stored, making it far more accessible in the future.
  • Dr. Roediger uses the analogy of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in physics, which holds that the act of measuring a property of a particle (position, for example) reduces the accuracy with which you can know another property (momentum, for example): “Testing not only measures knowledge but changes it,” he says — and, happily, in the direction of more certainty, not less.
  • “Testing has such bad connotation; people think of standardized testing or teaching to the test,” Dr. Roediger said. “Maybe we need to call it something else, but this is one of the most powerful learning tools we have.”
  • Motivation matters. So do impressing friends, making the hockey team and finding the nerve to text the cute student in social studies.
  • The more mental sweat it takes to dig it out, the more securely it will be subsequently anchored.
  • “In lab experiments, you’re able to control for all factors except the one you’re studying,” said Dr. Willingham. “Not true in the classroom, in real life. All of these things are interacting at the same time.”
    • anonymous
       
      Perfect explanation of why the so-called "soft" sciences (Psych, Econ, Sociology, etc) are actually quite hard while the "hard" sciences (Physics in particular) are actually compartively easy!
anonymous

Mind - Research Upends Traditional Thinking on Study Habits - NYTimes.com - 1 views

    • anonymous
       
      Wow!!!! If true, this is fascinating!!! Your brain is linking the Marshall Plan or Endocrine Systems to the shades of light in your bedroom or the smell of your couch.
    • Max Cheng
       
      It is interesting how you came across this article and liked it. My orchestra teacher Ms. Pipkin also showed the orchestra about this article and I liked it a lot and decided to do it for my blogging assignment. Ivan coincidentally also has the same article. I believe that this article is very TOK in form because it discusses the flaws of study habits, something we perceive as always right. Many believe that studying in a quiet place for a long time and focusing on subject by subject are the keys to success and getting the most out of each study period. However, through cognitive science studies, it is interesting how many scientists argue that a person should be in a room where the outside world can be sen (to have some distraction but not too much) and that a person should expose him or herself with many areas during one study sitting. So the whole argument boils down to "what is the right way to study?" and whether or not studying really helps. -max
  • “What we think is happening here is that, when the outside context is varied, the information is enriched, and this slows down forgetting,” said Dr. Bjork, the senior author of the two-room experiment.
  • Such theories have developed in part because of sketchy education research that doesn’t offer clear guidance. Student traits and teaching styles surely interact; so do personalities and at-home rules. The trouble is, no one can predict how.
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  • they directly contradict much of the common wisdom about good study habits, and they have not caught on.
  • “Instead, we walk around with all sorts of unexamined beliefs about what works that are mistaken.”
  • “The contrast between the enormous popularity of the learning-styles approach within education and the lack of credible evidence for its utility is, in our opinion, striking and disturbing,” the researchers concluded.
  • “We have yet to identify the common threads between teachers who create a constructive learning atmosphere,”
  • psychologists have discovered that some of the most hallowed advice on study habits is flat wrong. For instance, many study skills courses insist that students find a specific place, a study room or a quiet corner of the library, to take their work. The research finds just the opposite. In one classic 1978 experiment, psychologists found that college students who studied a list of 40 vocabulary words in two different rooms — one windowless and cluttered, the other modern, with a view on a courtyard — did far better on a test than students who studied the words twice, in the same room. Later studies have confirmed the finding, for a variety of topics.
  • The brain makes subtle associations between what it is studying and the background sensations it has at the time, the authors say, regardless of whether those perceptions are conscious. It colors the terms of the Versailles Treaty with the wasted fluorescent glow of the dorm study room, say; or the elements of the Marshall Plan with the jade-curtain shade of the willow tree in the backyard. Forcing the brain to make multiple associations with the same material may, in effect, give that information more neural scaffolding.
anonymous

Speed Bumps of the Future: Creepy Optical Illusion Children | Discoblog | Discover Maga... - 3 views

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    Today, West Vancouver officials will roll out a new way to keep drivers alert and slow them down: a little girl speed bump. A trompe-l'œil, the apparently 3D girl located near the École Pauline Johnson Elementary School is actually a 2D pavement painting, similar to the one shown here.
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    All you Psych folks out there. What type of behavioral conditioning is this likely to create?!?!?
anonymous

Sizing Up Consciousness by Its Bits - NYTimes.com - 2 views

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    Researchers want to build a meter that can measure consciousness as easily as body temperature.
anonymous

On Language - The Meaning of 'Man Up' - NYTimes.com - 2 views

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    Behind a simple imperative lurks a complex web of masculinity.
anonymous

Does Your Language Shape How You Think? - NYTimes.com - 6 views

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    The idea that your mother tongue shapes your experience of the world may be true after all.
anonymous

Op-Ed Contributor - Scientifically Tested Tests - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    Standardized tests don't truly measure the qualities of well-educated children.
anonymous

Next Big Thing - Literary Scholars Turn to Science - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    To illustrate what a growing number of literary scholars consider the most exciting area of new research, Lisa Zunshine, a professor of English at the University of Kentucky, refers to an episode from the TV series "Friends." (Follow closely now; this is about the science of English.) Phoebe and Rachel plot to play a joke on Monica and Chandler after they learn the two are secretly dating. The couple discover the prank and try to turn the tables, but Phoebe realizes this turnabout and once again tries to outwit them. As Phoebe tells Rachel, "They don't know that we know they know we know." This layered process of figuring out what someone else is thinking - of mind reading - is both a common literary device and an essential survival skill. Why human beings are equipped with this capacity and what particular brain functions enable them to do it are questions that have occupied primarily cognitive psychologists.
anonymous

Retracting a Medical Journal's Autism Study - Well Blog - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • The study was retracted after concerns about ethical breaches by one of the study authors. In addition, 10 of the 13 co-authors have disavowed the study’s conclusions. ”We fully retract this paper from the published record,” The Lancet editors said in a statement. But the damage has been done. The paper has fueled fears about the risks of childhood vaccinations and autism, particularly the M.M.R. vaccine, despite numerous studies showing no link.
  • So I think yeah, too much information in this particular case is a bad thing, which seems to go against every kind of democratic principle that we believe in. But in the case of science, it seems to be true.
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    Last week, the highly regarded medical journal, The Lancet, retracted a much debated 1998 study that had linked the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine to autism. The study was retracted after concerns about ethical breaches by one of the study authors. In addition, 10 of the 13 co-authors have disavowed the study's conclusions. "We fully retract this paper from the published record," The Lancet editors said in a statement. But the damage has been done. The paper has fueled fears about the risks of childhood vaccinations and autism, particularly the M.M.R. vaccine, despite numerous studies showing no link.
anonymous

Revising Book on Disorders of the Mind - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    "Far fewer children would get a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. "Binge eating disorder" and "hypersexuality" might become part of the everyday language. And the way many mental disorders are diagnosed and treated would be sharply revised. "
anonymous

Can 'Neuro Lit Crit' Save the Humanities? - NYTimes.com - 0 views

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    "A recent Times article described the use of neurological research and cognitive science in the field of literary theory. "At a time when university literature departments are confronting painful budget cuts, a moribund job market and pointed scrutiny about the purpose and value of an education in the humanities, the cross-pollination of English and psychology is providing a revitalizing lift," the article said. Does this research - "neuro lit" is one of its nicknames - energize literature departments, and, more broadly, generate excitement for the humanities? Is it yet another passing fad in liberal arts education? If the answer is both, why does theory matter, even if we sometimes don't understand what the scholars are saying? "
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