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http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2010/03/05/business/20100306_CHARTS_GRAPHIC.html?ref=economy March 5, 2010 After Jerky Swings, the Economy Begins to Look Nice and Boring By FLOYD NORRIS A DEEP recession and the credit crisis led to extraordinary falls in the American economy and perhaps even greater disruptions in financial markets. Now, both economic and market indicators have returned to what Warren G. Harding called "normalcy" when he was elected president in 1920, after the end of World War I and a subsequent recession. A lot of worry about the economy remains, and some economists are forecasting a double-dip recession, as occurred in the early 1980s, or a very slow recovery, as happened after the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions. But as the accompanying charts show, three disparate indicators - covering unemployment, corporate financial distress and stock market volatility - have gone from very high to a little below historical averages. Abby Joseph Cohen, the Goldman Sachs strategist, told a conference sponsored by George Washington University this week that lessened market volatility was one of the reassuring signs she saw. She was referring to the VIX index, which uses index options prices to show how much volatility traders expect. Another way to measure volatility is to look at the range of share prices. The chart here shows the differences between the highs and lows of the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index during three-month periods. There have been some sharp movements on a few days, but the high from December through February was just 10 percent higher than the low, the smallest range since the summer of 2007. Similarly, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm, said that only 42,900 firings were announced in February, the lowest for any month since 2006. The chart shows three-month totals, which are down almost three-quarters from the highest levels last year. The data "offers more support to the notion that U.S. employers ha

The effect on prices won't be as severe, Abbott said, because values already have plunged and there's hearty demand for such properties. Still, he said, "It will keep prices low. . . . It'll just slow the recovery down in general."

"It's like the front line of a new virus outbreak." The trends have unnerved even well-established businesses. "There is such a huge lack of confidence in the politicians, in the European Union and in the banks," said Arturo Virosque, 79, president of Valencia's chamber of commerce and the owner of a local logistics company. Ticking off crises going back to the Spanish Civil War in his youth, he said, "this is different. It's like an illness." After price cuts by competitors, Mr. Virosque's company reduced charges for storage and transportation, and slashed its work force to about 170, from 250. "The worst thing is that we have to cut the young people," he said, because higher severance makes it too expensive to fire older workers. While unemployment traditionally is higher in Spain than in much of Europe, the sharp increase has many here nervous. The jobless rate for those under 25 is at a Depression-like level of 31.8 percent, the highest among the 27 nations of the European Union.

As some companies begin to rebuild stocks, the impact could wash through the economy for a few more months, adding jobs and moderating the overall decline. Then the underlying weakness of the economy will probably reassert itself, say experts. After years of borrowing against homes and cashing in stock to spend in excess of their incomes, many Americans are tapped out. Austerity and saving have replaced spending and investment in many households, constraining the economy. As many Americans transition from living on home equity loans to sustaining themselves on paychecks, weekly pay continues to effectively shrink: Over the last year, average hourly earnings for rank-and-file workers - some 80 percent of the labor force - have increased by 2.5 percent. But average weekly earnings have expanded by only 0.7 percent, less than the increase in the cost of living, because employers have slashed working hours. In September, the average workweek edged down by one-tenth of an hour, to 33 hours. For those out of work, the job market looks harsher now than at any point in the recession. The number of people who have been jobless for more than six months increased in September by 450,000, reaching 5.4 million. "We have a truly massive crisis of long-term unemployment," said Christine L. Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project in a statement, adding that nearly 400,000 jobless people had exhausted their unemployment benefits by the end of September. "Today's employment report is a marching order for Congress to pass unemployment benefit extensions to all states, quickly." The first signs of improvement are likely to be seen among temporary workers, say experts, as companies now hunkering down in the face of uncertain prospects take tentative steps to expand. But temporary help services lost 1,700 jobs in September. "Companies are extremely cautious," said Roy G. Krause, chief executive of Spherion, a recruiting and staffing comp

As some companies begin to rebuild stocks, the impact could wash through the economy for a few more months, adding jobs and moderating the overall decline. Then the underlying weakness of the economy will probably reassert itself, say experts. After years of borrowing against homes and cashing in stock to spend in excess of their incomes, many Americans are tapped out. Austerity and saving have replaced spending and investment in many households, constraining the economy. As many Americans transition from living on home equity loans to sustaining themselves on paychecks, weekly pay continues to effectively shrink: Over the last year, average hourly earnings for rank-and-file workers - some 80 percent of the labor force - have increased by 2.5 percent. But average weekly earnings have expanded by only 0.7 percent, less than the increase in the cost of living, because employers have slashed working hours. In September, the average workweek edged down by one-tenth of an hour, to 33 hours. For those out of work, the job market looks harsher now than at any point in the recession. The number of people who have been jobless for more than six months increased in September by 450,000, reaching 5.4 million. "We have a truly massive crisis of long-term unemployment," said Christine L. Owens, executive director of the National Employment Law Project in a statement, adding that nearly 400,000 jobless people had exhausted their unemployment benefits by the end of September. "Today's employment report is a marching order for Congress to pass unemployment benefit extensions to all states, quickly." The first signs of improvement are likely to be seen among temporary workers, say experts, as companies now hunkering down in the face of uncertain prospects take tentative steps to expand. But temporary help services lost 1,700 jobs in September. "Companies are extremely cautious," said Roy G. Krause, chief executive of Spherion, a recruiting and staffing comp

The tuition was daunting - about $41,000 for a 14-month program - but he said the admissions recruiter portrayed it as the entrance price to a stable life. "The recruiter said, 'The way the economy is, with the recession, you need to have a safe way to be sure you will always have income,' " Mr. Newburg said. " 'In today's market, chefs will always have a job, because people will always have to eat.' " According to Mr. Newburg, the recruiter promised the school would help him find a good job, most likely as a line cook, paying as much as $38,000 a year. Last summer, halfway through his program and already carrying debts of about $10,000, Mr. Newburg was alarmed to see many graduates taking jobs paying as little as $8 an hour washing dishes and busing tables, he said. He dropped out to avoid more debt.

# bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game." # On the economy: "By the fourth quarter [2008], the credit crisis, coupled with tumbling home and stock prices, had produced a paralyzing fear that engulfe