And yet, I still think that at its core Twitter is simply right now’s next big thing, sure to be knocked off its pedestal by Google Wave or something else sooner or later. Moreover, it is following the predictable tech startup arc almost perfectly:
Stage 1. Confusing blog buzz
Stage 2. Reactionary doomcrying about whatyouhadforbreakfast status updates
Stage 3. Noticed by NPR, which flogs it to death
Stage 4. Takes off in a big way
Stage 5. Creators sell for billions or arrange an IPO (this is where we are currently)
Stage 6. Finally, either A) relative stability (Facebook) or B) meteoric decline (MySpace)