LEON WESTGATE: Yes - demand destruction is always a concern and goes hand in hand with substitution. With copper a lot of these - or low hanging fruit - the easy substitution has already taken place - around 2005, 2006, and 2007. As a rule of thumb it's about 1% to 2% of the market normally, is lost to substitution which increases to around 3% or more on the back of a period of high prices. Looking at the reasons for substitution, the area that seems most at risk is copper tubes which are about 11% of the market - in particular the air conditioning elements of that. We've already seen substitution for aluminium and also people being clever with how they use the copper - in terms of the shapes of copper that they use in air conditioning units having a greater surface area but for less metal. The other key is scrap supply - this has increased significantly and it enters the supply chain in two areas - one it displaces either concentrates or blister and a secondary production which accounts for - we expect it to account for around 20% of refined production of total required production this year from around 9% to 12% back into the middle of the last decade. The other bit where scrap is actually the key is direct use of scrap where that displaces cathode and is essentially more akin to substitution. That's much harder to pin down, but when high prices appear - you will get a combination of demand destruction, substitution and increased use of scra
