Brinkmanship in Syria boosts risk of regional war with Israel | News , Politics | THE D... - 0 views
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war & peace Syria Israel missiles Russia Lebanon
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The dangerous brinkmanship pitting Israel against the alliance of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah has brought the region closer to war than at any time since the end of the July-August 2006 conflict. A combination of bellicose rhetoric, aggressive acts, warnings and threats set against the backdrop of Syria’s grueling civil war and its critical implications for the Middle East has revived the era of miscalculation after nearly seven years of calm and restraint, with potentially disastrous consequences, diplomats and observers say. In the past two weeks, Israel has confirmed its unprecedented policy of airstrikes against suspected Hezbollah arms caches in Syria with two more attacks in swift succession after the inaugural bombing in January. Syria has warned of an “automatic response” should Israel stage a fourth strike.
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Israel upped the stakes by using Thursday’s edition of the New York Times to deliver a clear warning to Syrian President Bashar Assad that he would “risk forfeiting his regime” if he fulfilled the vow of retaliation to any further airstrikes. That same warning was delivered by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon to CIA Director John Brennan Thursday.
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Israel has sensed a window of opportunity opened by the war in Syria to attack Hezbollah arms supplies stockpiled in Syria, calculating that there will be no reaction while the Assad regime is fighting for its existence. This is an unprecedented act. Since the late 1990s, Israel has watched Hezbollah’s rocket and missile arsenal grow in size and quality but never risked targeting the caches in Syria in case it sparked an escalation. So far, Israel’s calculation has paid off. But the tolerance threshold grows a little closer with each fresh airstrike. The Syrian authorities have warned that orders have been given to the army to launch an “automatic” – if unspecified – retaliation should the Israelis launch another airstrike into Syria.
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Israel’s defense establishment appears to be torn between wanting to see Assad gone as this would deliver a blow to Iran and Hezbollah and wanting Assad to remain in power because the potential alternative to the present regime could be militant Islamists. Another option is to attempt to shoot down an Israeli jet in Lebanese airspace. All three Israeli airstrikes against sites west of Damascus were conducted from the Lebanese side of the border using long-range standoff missiles. The Israeli Air Force used a similar technique in October 2003 when it attacked the Ain es-Saheb training camp for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command which was located 20 kilometers east of the Lebanese border and in the same general area as the more recent strikes.
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Following the Israeli air raid against the suspected nuclear reactor near Deir al-Zor in 2007, Syria received newer missiles from Russia, mainly short- to medium-range systems such as the Pantsir S1 and the Buk-M2. Syria is currently seeking to acquire the long-range S-300 system from Russia. Reports suggest that Syria has been paying for the missiles and that they could be delivered in the coming three months.
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If an Israeli jet was shot down over Lebanon, the Lebanese can argue with justification that Israel repeatedly breaches Lebanese sovereignty with its illegal overflights (so far this year at a rate roughly double the same period in 2012). Israel does not hesitate to shoot down any aircraft deemed hostile that breaches Israeli airspace, so why should Lebanon not do the same, either directly by Hezbollah (if it possesses the capabilities) or with the assistance of Syrian air defense units? On the other hand, the downing of an Israeli jet would shatter Israel’s long-standing “red line” concerning the use of advanced antiaircraft weapons in Lebanon.