Group items tagged

On November 24, a Turkish F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber near the border of Turkey and Syria. In the immediate aftermath, officials from the two countries offered contradictory versions of what transpired: Russian president Vladimir Putin claimed that the plane was flying over Syrian territory when it was downed; Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan countered that it was inside Turkey’s border and had been warned ten times to alter its course. Hours later, President Obama threw his support behind Erdogan. “Turkey,” he said, “has a right to defend its territory and its airspace.” I asked Pierre Sprey, a longtime defense analyst and member of the team that developed the F-16, to examine what we know about the downing and determine what actually occurred that morning.

Looking at the detailed Russian timeline of what happened—as well as the much less detailed Turkish radar maps—I’d say the evidence looks pretty strong that the Turks were setting up an ambush. They certainly weren’t doing anything that would point to a routine air patrol along the border. Their actions in no way represented a routine, all day long type of patrol.

The elements presented during a Press conference in Moscow by General Viktor Bondarev, chief of staff of the Russian Air Force, leave no doubt – the Turkish aviation, which had been informed of the flight plan of the Russian Sukhoï, in accordance with the agreements on military co-ordination, had already recieved prior instructions to assume attack position. These elements invalidate the position of NATO.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan planned to shoot down a Russian warplane engaged in Moscow's anti-Daesh campaign in Syria six weeks prior to the Su-24 incident, a famous Turkish whistleblower apparently said on Twitter.Erdogan is worried about the outcome of the upcoming elections and is contemplating bringing down a Russian aircraft, the anonymous Twitter user, who goes by the name of Fuat Avni, posted on October 11. @wikileaks 12.10.2015! He says erdoğan is afraid of election and thinking about shooting down russian war plane. pic.twitter.com/AZKBgncyo0 — Diyap Yıldırım (@UyusukKursun) 5 декабря 2015 ​WikiLeaks retweeted an article that mentions Fuat Avni's exposé, asking, "Did Turkish 'deep throat' reveal Russian jet shootdown plan six weeks ago?"

On 10 Oct--six weeks before Russian jet shootdown, Turkish 'deep throat' tweeted future shootdown is #Erdogan plan https://t.co/0Q9PIGatj2 — WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) 5 декабря 2015 ​Fuat Avni, who is often sharing accurate insider information exposing Erdogan and his government, is said to have claimed that Erdogan was the one to give order to shoot down the Russian bomber over Syria under the false pretext that the aircraft violated Turkish airspace.

The argument over the air strike on the Syrian military base in Deir az-Zor has taken a strange and worrying turn.The US has categorically denied that any of its aircraft were involved. It has admitted that its aircraft were in the area, but says that they carried out an air strike 55 km away.The Russians say that is true. However, they also say that it is not the whole truth.The Russians say that in addition to the US aircraft, two pairs of aircraft - in other words four aircraft in total - from two other countries that are also members of the US led coalition were also flying at the time of the air strike over Deir az-Zor.The Russians have not actually said it was these aircraft that carried out the air strike. However, they have pointed out that the US has failed to admit to the presence of these aircraft. They are asking why?

It is the broadest of hints, and it is difficult to believe that the Russians do not think that it was these aircraft that carried out the air strike.This information - if it is true - begs a host of questions.Firstly, the Syrian military base that was hit by the air strike was apparently the scene of a bitter battle between the Syrian military and the Islamic State.  It seems that shortly after the air strike - and most probably as a result of it - the Islamic State’s fighters were able to storm it.Inevitably, that begs the question of whether the aircraft that carried out the air strike were providing air support to the fighters of the Islamic State.  On the face of it, it looks like they were. After all, if what happened was simply a mistake, it might have been expected that the US and its allies would say as much.If so, it is an extremely serious and worrying development, suggesting that some members of the US-led anti-Islamic State coalition are actually in league with the Islamic State.

Secondly, Deir az-Zor is the area of Syria from which the Islamic State exports most of its oil. Again, this inevitably begs the question of whether the Islamic State attack on the base - and the air strike seemingly carried out in support of it - was in some way connected to the illegal oil trade, and might have been intended to protect it.Thirdly, there is the obvious question of which countries’ aircraft were involved. The Russians are not identifying these countries - at least for the moment - though they obviously know or think they know which they are.  The one thing however that the Russians are saying is that the aircraft of more than one country was involved.The Russians are also drawing attention to the US’ failure to admit to the presence of the aircraft of these countries, which strongly suggests that the US is protecting them, whichever countries they are.Lastly, it is interesting that the Russians seem to be so well informed about this incident.  If the Russians do indeed know how many aircraft from the US-led coalition were flying at any one time over Der az-Zor, and can identify the countries they belong to, then the inescapable conclusion is that their surveillance and intelligence operation in Syria is very effective indeed.

Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane over Syria has proven that the country is a liability to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and must be “ousted” from the Western military alliance, says a retired US Army General.The shooting down of a Russian aircraft near the Syrian border was in line with Ankara’s struggle to establish itself as a “dominant” power, retired US Army Major General Paul Vallely said Thursday.Vallely said Turkey must be removed from NATO because it poses a “big and important issue” in many ways for other members.“I think NATO, if they have any resolve, they would oust Turkey out of NATO because they are not cooperating against ISIL, they are not cooperating at all with some of the forces inside of Syria, and they want to see [Syrian President Bashar] Assad removed or replaced by another government,” the retired General told Russia's RT.

Vallely, who served in the Vietnam War and retired in 1993 as Deputy Commanding General, Pacific Command, said Turkey’s “unilateral action” in downing the Russian jet was also a signal to NATO, meaning that despite being a member, they would not refrain from pursuing their own interests when necessary.“They have been that way for a long time; they are a part of it [NATO], but yet they are not,” he said.The former US Army commander further described Turkey as an internal threat to NATO, who “will only cooperate when they have to and they will get as much out of NATO as they can” in terms of weapons and tactics.

Vallely said that despite the downing of the jet, Putin still "controls the chessboard" because of his strong military presence in Syria.

In what is a prime example of twisted logic, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Russia against using its ultra-modern S-400 air defense system to shoot down Turkish fighter jets if they violate Syrian airspace just days after Ankara brought down a Russian Su-24 bomber.Downing a Turkish warplane over Syrian territory would qualify as aggression, Erdogan told CNN in response to a question on what would happen if a Turkish fighter jet were to stray into Syrian territory. "This kind of an incident which may happen of course will further push us to take measures. … Of course it will be an aggression against our rights of sovereignty and it is a natural right of [Turkey] to protect those rights," Erdogan said.