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Paul Merrell

The Vineyard of the Saker: Mikhail Khazin Q&A with the Saker Community - 0 views

  • t is a huge pleasure, and honor, for me to present you today with the Q&A between Mikhail Khazin and the Saker Community.  For those who might have missed it, here it is (including a biography of Mr Khazin): http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/10/exclusive-mikhail-khazin-q-with-saker.html
  • Considering the importance of this document, I have decided to try to make it as easy to access, copy and distribute as possible.  First, I have made it available in 4 formats: ODT, PDF, HTML and DOCX.  Second, I have uploaded it to both the Internet Archive and Mediafire.  Here are the links: https://archive.org/details/KhazinQAENFinal https://www.mediafire.com/#t713dfdpadk0z Third, you will find below the text pasted in from the HTML file.
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    This is a must-read if you want to learn about Russia's internal politics as they affect Russian economic foreign policy.  There is a video of a roundtable discussion including Khazin touching on the same topics here. http://goo.gl/3E4QWL (I've borrowed the clip below from that page.) Mikhail Khazin is a mathematician and economist in Russia (graduated from Moscow State University in 1984). After working in various government and banking positions, he was discharged from his position as Deputy Chief of the Economic Directorate for attempting to fight corruption during Russia's failed experiment at privatization in 1997. Since 2000, he has worked as a consultant. He's an acquaintance of President Putin and is well informed of Kremlin politics, including the behind-the-scenes power struggles.  Besides being an expert economist, he seems to have a knack for predicting major world events. In 2000 he predicted the 2008 economic collapse (having previously predicted Russia's 1998 default). Then, on 10 September 2001, he predicted large-scale, U.S.-organized terror attacks as a cover for the States' economic deterioration. Now, in August of this year he predicted the end of a period of consumption stimulated by credit and a fresh round of bankruptcies and unemployment in the last quarter of 2014.  Back in September he had this to say about the current 'dollar economy': "There is nothing we will gain anymore from the dollar model. It's run dry."
Gary Edwards

Economy Roundtable - Coast to Coast AM - 0 views

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    "Date: 05-07-14 Host: George Noory Guests: Catherine Austin Fitts, Gerald Celente, George Ure, Robert Zimmerman This special panel discussion on the economy and related topics featured investment advisor Catherine Austin Fitts, trends analyst Gerald Celente, and consultant George Ure. Currently, the financial system is still being pumped with cheap money, such as $45 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities, and interest rates remain at record lows-- but once those interest rates go back up, the economy will tumble, said Celente. Fitts cited the continued inequality and centralization in the economy as hampering growth, while Ure noted that we're in the bottoming process with the Fed, which is trying to print money fast enough so we don't drop into something like the Great Depression. While the US continues its behind-closed-doors propping up of the economy, "I still believe we're going to see something like a panic level by the end of the second quarter," Celente remarked. America used to be the land of opportunity, but now the wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few, he added. Globalization is lowering the wealth of the middle class, and the reality is "we're automating or outsourcing jobs, and putting people on government checks," Fitts commented. Ure, who studies cyclical patterns of the economy or "long waves," said right now we're seeing a "war on cash," with a huge effort to get people into an electronic system, where all their transactions and investments can be tracked. The revelations by Edward Snowden about America's surveillance state has had a depressing effect on US economic growth, as well as inspiring other countries around the world to pull out of the system, Fitts suggested. "We live in a country where the system of creating money has basically been sublet from Congress to the Federal Reserve...and government is wholesale now, in the business of granting different franchises such as in communications and money operations," Ure detail
Paul Merrell

Venezuelan Opposition MUD wins Parliamentary Elections - nsnbc international | nsnbc in... - 0 views

  • Venezuela’s opposition Democratic Roundtable (MUD) coalition has won Sunday’s parliamentary elections, winning some 99 out of 167 seats. The governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) won 46 seats in the new parliament. President Nicolas Maduro recognized what he described as the “adverse outcome” of the elections. 
  • The fine counting of votes has not yet been completed but the outcome of Venezuela’s parliamentary elections stands clear. The PSUV, founded by the late Hugo Chavez has lost the elections on Sunday, December 6, 2015. The MUD has won over the Chavista PSUV, which will result in a non PSUV dominated parliament for the first time in 15 years. The National Electoral Commission (CNE) registered a voter turnout of 74.25 percent which translates into about 19.4 million registered voters who have come to the polling stations and cast heir votes. One of the Democratic Roundtable (MUD) coalition leaders, Henrique Capriles used his Twitter account to state the “The results are as we have hoped. Venezuela has won. It’s irreversible”. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, for his part, conceded the PSUV’s defeat, stating “We are here, with morals and ethics, to recognize these adverse results”.
  • Maduro had previously signed a document, delivered to the CNE, assuring that he and the PSUV would recognize the outcome of the elections. Maduro would blame the outcome of the elections on a sustained economic war against Venezuela and intense foreign political interference. The new Parliament is scheduled to begin its five-years term in January 2016. The exact composition of the new parliament is at this point still unknown, even though fine-counting hardly can change the overall outcome.
Paul Merrell

Secret Israeli Report Sees Rift With Europe Growing - J.J. Goldberg - Forward.com - 0 views

  • A classified Israeli foreign ministry document, leaked to the daily Yediot Ahronot, warns that 2015 will see Israel’s standing on the world stage steadily deteriorating. It predicts “worsening drift in Europe toward Palestinian positions, more parliaments recognizing the State of Palestine, fear of sanctions and labeling merchandise [to separate settlement products from tariff-free Israel-proper products] and no certainty that the United States will continue after Israel’s March elections to protect Israel with its veto.” The document is said to be a summary of an interministerial assessment roundtable convened by foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, and is signed by foreign ministry deputy director-general Gilead Cohen. It was circulated to Israel’s ambassadors around the world, Yediot reported. In addition to labeling settlement products and parliamentary votes to recognize Palestine, the foreign ministry document warns of European nations halting the supply of replacement parts for Israeli equipment and demanding compensation for damage caused by Israel to European projects in the territories.
  • “The Europeans are creating a clear link between political and economic relations, and in this context it should be remembered that Europe is Israel’s main trading partner.” European diplomats and politicians increasingly view Israel as responsible for the failure of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, claiming that Israel sets unreasonable conditions for a peace agreement in order to continue deepening its hold on the West Bank.
  • The tensions surrounding Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to Paris this week are an outgrowth of that growing gulf of suspicion. As Haaretz diplomatic correspondents Barak Ravid and Asher Schechter both reported, French president Francois Hollande initially asked Netanyahu not to come to Paris for the Sunday solidarity rally, because he wanted to avoid injecting the divisive Israeli-Palestinian issue into the rally’s theme of national and Europe-wide unity and solidarity. Once Netanyahu announced that he was coming, Hollande made clear to him that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas would be invited as well. Netanyahu has said repeatedly since last week’s Paris attacks, in his initial sympathy statement and again in his remarks Monday at the site of the kosher supermarket attack, that the terror plaguing Europe is the same as the terror Israel faces. He said he hoped Europe would “wake up in time” to the terrorist threat. He continued: “Israel supports Europe in its fight against terrorism and it’s time Europe supported Israel in the same fight.” His comments have caused resentment in France. Like most of Europe, French leaders regard Israel’s conflict with Arab terrorists as fundamentally different from the jihadist terrorism spreading from Syria to the European continent. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is seen as a territorial dispute, albeit with religious overtones where Hamas is concerned, while Al Qaeda and ISIS are seen as essentially nihilistic movements that seek to undermine Western civilization.
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  • As for “waking up” to the terrorist threat, French observers note that they are carrying the fight against Al Qaeda in Mali on their own, had one of the largest NATO troop contingents fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and maintain what’s considered one of the best counter-terrorism intelligence operations in the West. In effect, Netanyahu’s call for Europe to “wake up” and “support Israel” in its struggle against terrorism is seen as a demand that Europe acquiesce in his effort to entrench Israeli presence in the territories, rather than withdrawing and permitting a Palestinian state based on the pre-1967 lines.
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    " ... no certainty that the United States will continue after Israel's March elections to protect Israel with its veto." That would seem to indicate that the Obama Administration is doing some very tough talking to Israeli government officials behind the scenes. But I doubt that Obama would have the U.S. abstain or vote in favor of a Security Council Resolution condemning Israel unless it was on a matter that would inflicit little actual pain on the Israeli government. In that scenario, Kerry could claim plausibly that the U.S. abstention or vote in favor was a "message" to Israeli gobvernment to get serious about making the two-state solution happen. But I have to admit it would warm my heart to see a Security Council Resolution adopted authorizing the use of force to break the Gaza siege and to push Israeli troops and its settlers back to the 1967 borders.  
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