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You know the country has really gone to the dogs when Washington’s main allies in its war on Syria are the two biggest terrorist incubators on the planet. I’m talking about Saudi Arabia and Turkey, both of which are run by fanatical Islamic zealots devoted to spreading violent jihad to the four corners of the earth. Not that the US doesn’t have blood on its hands too. It does, but that’s beside the point.

Four and half years later, the place is a worse mess than Iraq.  Half the population is either dead or internally displaced, the civilian infrastructure is a shambles, and nothing has been achieved. Nothing.  Assad is safely tucked away in Damascus, the jihadi proxies are on the run, and everyone hates the US more than ever. Great plan, eh? Where’s the downside? The downside is that now Washington finds itself backed against the wall with precious  few options that don’t involve a direct confrontation with Moscow.

These developments have forced Washington into a fallback position that will likely entail air-support for Turkish ground forces who will be deployed to Northern Syria to take and hold area sufficient for a “safe zone”, which is an innocuous sounding moniker the media invokes to conceal the fact that Turkey plans to annex sovereign Syrian territory which, by the way, is an act of war. Now fast-forward to last week:

The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine accused Kiev of redeploying tanks and other heavy weapons to the line of engagement and nine ceasefire violations within 24 hours. 

A spokesman for the Donetsk People’s Republic‘s Defense Ministry told the press on Tuesday that the military intelligence service of the DPR’s self-defense forces had spotted more than 35 Ukrainian tanks and multiple rocket launcher systems within the disengagement zone where heavy weaponry is prohibited according to the Minsk Accords. On Monday the Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed republic stressed that over the past week, Ukrainian forces has moved military hardware toward the line of separation near a number areas and settlements, including Gorlovka, Mariupul and Donetsk. The Ministry noted that Ukrainian military units loyal to the government in Kiev had concentrated a total of 111 artillery pieces including self-propelled artillery weapons, BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, D.30 systems, 166 tanks, 147 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 26 vehicles with ammunition and more than 600 troops toward the line of engagement.

The 600 troops reportedly include units of the ultra-nationalist and overtly neo-Nazi Pravy Sector, formerly known as UNA-UNSO. Both the UNA-UNSO and Pravy Sector are widely regarded as part of NATO’s covert “Stay-Behind” a.k.a. Gladio network. The government of the DPR accuses the government in Kiev to systematically take advantage of the ceasefire regime that was implemented in accordance with the Minsk Accord and the Minsk II Accord. The DPR’s Defense Ministry reported that Ukrainian military forces loyal to Kiev had violated the ceasefire nine times within 24 hours. The ceasefire violations reportedly include the shelling of the village of Spartak at the outskirts of Donetsk, the shelling of the Abakumov Coal Mine and the Petrovsky District north of Donetsk, and the shelling of the village of Zaitsevo at the outskirts of Gorlovka. Ukrainian military forces reportedly used 28-mm and 120-mm mortars, infantry vehicles, armored personnel carriers and small arms. The reported deployment of heavy weaponry and troops into the disengagement zone stipulated in the Minsk II accord would violate the prohibition of 100-mm artillery guns and weapons of larger caliber in the disengagement zone. Weapons of such caliber have to be withdrawn to a distance of 50 kilometers from the line of engagement. Other weapons, including multiple rocket launchers have to be withdrawn to 70 kilometers and Uragan, Smerch as well as Tochka tactical operations missile systems to 140 kilometers.  A supplementary agreement to the Minsk II Accords, signed in September, further stipulates that guns with a caliber below 100 mm and tanks and mortar launchers, including those with a caliber of 120 mm, were supposed to have been withdrawn before November 12.

The downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey highlights the growing danger posed by a pattern of provocative military behavior by Moscow, U.S. and European security officials said Tuesday, calling for a revival of military-to-military talks between Russia and NATO that were shelved last year. The first-ever shoot-down of a Russian plane by a member of the Western alliance comes after months of brinkmanship by Russian forces on several continents and a series of NATO responses, including stepped-up military exercises, that have placed the former Cold War foes on a footing that at times has looked just short of war.Story Continued Below NATO leaders themselves seemed anxious to find a way to turn down the temperature after a Turkish F-16 destroyed a Russian Su-24 that Turkey claimed had crossed over from Syria. Turkish leaders called it at the least the fourth such incursion in recent weeks, while Russia maintains it did not breach Turkish airspace.

On Capitol Hill, Rep. Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican and a member of the Armed Services Committee who also serves as president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, said in a statement: "I echo NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg's sentiments calling for all NATO partners to deescalate tensions and focus on the fight against ISIL." Others from across the spectrum viewed the disputed incident as a potential opportunity to de-escalate what has increasingly become a dangerous game of cat and mouse. Some security experts said NATO and Russia should convene a special forum that was established expressly for the two sides to hold military discussions. The forum has atrophied since the alliance cut off most ties over Moscow's annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in March 2014. "The way the Russians have behaved in the last 18 months, sending submarines into harbors, simulating nuclear bombing missions against NATO countries, flying their aircraft without transponders, and having incursions into Turkish air space, something was going to happen," said Ivo Daalder, who stepped down as the U.S. ambassador to NATO in 2013. "Because we don't have mechanisms to talk about this there is a danger that this could lead to escalation."

A collection of former defense and foreign ministers of Britain, Poland, Russia, Germany, Turkey and France also reissued their call Tuesday to use the NATO-Russia Council, codified in 2002, to hammer out a broad agreement to "prevent accidental incidents or miscalculations leading to an escalation of tension and even confrontation." Two former NATO secretaries general endorsed the position. The stakes were already high before Tuesday. NATO reported more than 400 intercepts of Russian aircraft in 2014 — four times as much as the year before. Russia also reported that it has detected twice as many NATO fighter aircraft flying near its borders in 2014 than in 2013 — more than 3,000 in all.

Russian financial institutions and firms are ready to work without SWIFT's interbank cash transfer services, according to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. “Certainly, it is unpleasant, as it will prove a stumbling block for companies and banks, and will slow down work. It will be inevitable to deploy some aged technologies for information transfer and calculations. However, the companies are technically and psychologically ready for the shutdown as this threat was repeatedly voiced,” Dvorkovich said, as quoted by TASS.He added that the measure may have a negative impact on corporations working in the US and Europe.

The potential disconnection of Russia from SWIFT has been under discussion since 2014, when the EU and the US introduced the first round of international penalties against Moscow over alleged involvement in the Ukraine crisis and the reunification with Crimea.At the time, the European Parliament called for strong actions against Russia, including expelling the country from money transfer services. However, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication regarded the recommendations as violating rights and damaging for businesses.

In 2017, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina told President Vladimir Putin that the banking sector had been provided with all the necessary conditions for operating lenders and payment systems in case of disconnection from SWIFT. According to the regulator, 90 percent of ATMs in Russia were ready to accept the Mir payment system, a domestic version of Visa and MasterCard.The Mir payment system was introduced in 2015 after clients of several Russian banks (SMP Bank, InvestCapitalBank, Russia Bank and Sobinbank) were unable to use Visa and MasterCard due to the sanctions.