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Currently, the global stainless steel industry is going through difficult times, as prices of raw materials are increasing on one hand, and at the same time demand has been on a declining trend. Profitability of both manufacturers and traders of pipes and plate products have reduced significantly compared to the past two years.
I have been speaking to many traders of pipes, plates and fittings about their business conditions and the most common answer I get is "Current business is even worse than what we experienced in the recession of 2008".
It is not just the case with European or US manufacturers of stainless steel products, the effects of declining demand is being even faced by Chinese and Asian manufacturers.
Nickel and ferro chrome prices are the driving factor for determining prices of stainless steel products. While, Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have been very volatile, ferro chrome prices have been recently increased by 12.5% by miners across economies. On account of an increase in ferro chrome prices, some manufacturers have already announced an increase in prices, while others are planning to increase the prices.
Stockholders and buyers of products such as stainless steel sheets, plates, pipes, bars, fittings and flanges have been become highly risk averse and cautious while placing purchase orders with mills, especially in case of Asian stock holders who import these products from Chinese or Indian mills. The global speculation activity in metals has had a major impact on the buying patterns of consumers in Asian economies.
Going forward, we expect the market to remain lack luster, with buyers staying on the back seat and purchasing in smaller quantities, to avoid major losses due to fluctuations in prices of Nickel and other raw materials. Although prices in the Indian market have remained stable, but selling big quantities of stainless steel plates, pipes and fittings has become difficult because of the risk averse attitude of traders
Concerns of a slowdown in the Chinese economy led to a selloff in major base metals including copper, aluminium and nickel. Even precious metals such as gold and silver were not spared. The key question is who to trust at times when gold is also on a freefall.
This week global financial markets started with another round of selling, as investors turned risk averse following disappointing Chinese economic data. The Chinese Economy grew 7.7% during the first quarter of 2013, compared to the same period last year, missing economists' expectations of 8% growth. Growth also slowed compared to the last quarter of 2012, when it stood at 7.9%, raising expectations of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, which is a bearish signal for the global financial markets, especially base metals.
Growth in Chinese industrial production also disappointed, with a reading of year on year growth of 8.9% in March compared to a 9.9% growth recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting a growth of 10.0 year on year.
Traders had expected China to post better results, as consumer spending had improved and Chinese government had also infused liquidity in the domestic financial system to aid growth. We expect the Chinese government to avoid a monetary tightening policy to aid growth in the coming months.
Nickel prices were trading at around USD 15,500 / metric ton down around USD350 compared to the closing on Friday. The fall in nickel prices and weak Chinese economic data has come as a surprise to many stainless steel users and stockholders in emerging economies, as they had made material bookings for stainless steel seamless pipes, Stainless Steel Pipe Fittings and stainless steel strips in the last week,. They had anticipated Nickel prices of USD16000 / metric ton as bottom pric
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