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Innovation Blues

Human cycles: History as science : Nature News & Comment - 0 views

  • Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure.
  • Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analysed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way1. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won't be as bad as 1870,” he adds.
  • Cliodynamics is viewed with deep scepticism by most academic historians, who tend to see history as a complex stew of chance, individual foibles and one-of-a-kind situations that no broad-brush 'science of history' will ever capture.
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  • Most think that phenomena such as political instability should be understood by constructing detailed narratives of what actually happened — always looking for patterns and regularities, but never forgetting that each outbreak emerged from a particular time and place. “We're doing what can be done, as opposed to aspiring after what can't,” says Daniel Szechi, who studies early-modern history at the University of Manchester, UK. “We're just too ignorant” to identify meaningful cycles, he adds.
  • Goldstone has searched for cliodynamic patterns in past revolutions, and predicts that Egypt will face a few more years of struggle between radicals and moderates and 5–10 years of institution-building before it can regain stability. “It is possible but rare for revolutions to resolve rapidly,” he says. “Average time to build a new state is around a dozen years, and many take longer.”
  • it seems that indicators of corruption increase and political cooperation unravels when a period of instability or violence is imminent.
  • they call the secular cycle, extends over two to three centuries. It starts with a relatively egalitarian society, in which supply and demand for labour roughly balance out. In time, the population grows, labour supply outstrips demand, elites form and the living standards of the poorest fall. At a certain point, the society becomes top-heavy with elites, who start fighting for power. Political instability ensues and leads to collapse, and the cycle begins again.
  • What is different is the scale — Turchin and his colleagues are systematically collecting historical data that span centuries or even millennia — and the mathematical analysis of how the variables interact.
  • when it comes to predicting unique events such as the Industrial Revolution, or the biography of a specific individual such as Benjamin Franklin, he says, the conventional historian's approach of assembling a narrative based on evidence is still best.
  • “You certainly can't predict when a plane is going to crash, but engineers recover the black box. They study it carefully, they find out why the plane crashed, and that's why so many fewer planes crash today than used to.”
  • “We can tell you in great detail what the grain prices were in a few towns in southern England in the Middle Ages,” he says. “But we can't tell you how most ordinary people lived their lives.”
  • Turchin's approach by throwing light on the immediate triggers of political violence. He argues3, for example, that for such violence to happen, individuals must begin to identify strongly with a political group. One powerful way for groups to cement that identification is through rituals, especially frightening, painful or otherwise emotional ones that create a body of vivid, shared memories. “People form the impression that the most profound insights they have into their own personal history are shared by other people,”
  • Elites have been known to give power back to the majority, he says, but only under duress, to help restore order after a period of turmoil. “I'm not afraid of uprisings,” he says. “That's why we are where we are.”
Innovation Blues

I dug deep into the last 9 months of r/postcollapse and found the following posts that ... - 0 views

  • PostCollapse
  • Top ten ways not to survive (xpost from /r/survivalist) 9 months ago by Theon Skills to surive the end of the world as we know it (xpost from /r/survivalist) 9 months ago by Theon Why the Survivalists Have Got It Wrong. Transition Culture 6 months ago by [deleted] From disaster mitigation to nutrition to raising livestock, this online database has all the information you need 6 months ago by Dodged The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines- absolutely essential reading. 6 months ago by Baeocystin Best form of defense in a country where firearms are illegal? 6 months ago by EldestPort Simple Critical Infrastructure Maps, and a systemic approach to threat modeling 5 months ago by hexayurt Pocket Ref: A must have! 5 months ago by PwnwallJackson US Army Field Survival Guide pdf 5 months ago by samattos
Innovation Blues

Failed fascist coup in America led to strategy change for corporate elite « T... - 0 views

  • Prescott Bush and son George: a family fortune made from financially supporting Hitler's rise to power.
Innovation Blues

Using WiFi to see through walls | ExtremeTech - 0 views

  • Using WiFi to see through walls
  • British engineers from University College London have developed a passive radar system that can see through walls using the WiFi signals generated by wireless routers and access points.
  • The passive radar process is actually quite simple. In any space that has WiFi, you are constantly being bombarded by 2.4GHz and 5GHz radio waves. When these waves hit a moving object, their frequency is altered (the Doppler effect). By carefully “sniffing” the WiFi signals, Woodbridge and Chetty are able to reconstruct an image any objects or humans that are moving on the other side of the wall.
Innovation Blues

If Everyone Knew | five facts that everyone should know. - 0 views

  • The prison system in the United States is a profit-making industry. Private corporations operate over 200 facilities nationwide and are traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
  • Six corporations control virtually all American media. News Corp. owns over 27 television stations and over 150 newspapers. Time Warner has over 100 subsidiaries including CNN, Time Magazine, and The CW.
  • The FBI admits to infiltrating & disrupting peaceful political groups in the United States. The Womens’ and Civil Rights movements were among those targeted, with their members being beaten, imprisoned, and assassinated.
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  • In 1977 it was revealed that random American citizens were abducted & tortured for research by the CIA. Project MK Ultra was the code name for a series of covert activities in the early 1950’s.
  • A plan to attack American cities to justify war with Cuba was approved by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1962. Rejected by President Kennedy, Operation Northwoods remained classified for 35 years.
Innovation Blues

The World's Tallest Tree Is Hiding Somewhere In California : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR - 0 views

  • The tallest of the tall is 379 feet 4 inches, 10 feet taller than the Giant. It's now called
  • "Hyperion
  • "its mass is equivalent to 15 adult blue whales, the largest animal on earth. Each year, this tree produces enough new wood to make a 90-foot-tall tree with a trunk 12 inches in diameter. If all of Del Norte Titan were cut into boards one foot wide, 12 feet long and one inch thick, the line of planks laid end to end would stretch over a hundred miles and could build 120 average-sized houses."
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  • This video, which comes with dramatic music in all the right places, is, to use a much overused word, but I'll use it anyway..."awesome":
Innovation Blues

Carl Jung - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

  • Individuation Jung considered individuation, a psychological process of integrating the opposites including the conscious with the unconscious while still maintaining their relative autonomy, necessary for a person to become whole.[2] Individuation is a process of transformation whereby the personal and collective unconscious is brought into consciousness (by means of dreams, active imagination or free association to take some examples) to be assimilated into the whole personality. It is a completely natural process necessary for the integration of the psyche to take place.[33] Individuation has a holistic healing effect on the person, both mentally and physically.[33] Besides achieving physical and mental health,[33] people who have advanced towards individuation tend to be harmonious, mature and responsible. They embody humane values such as freedom and justice and have a good understanding about the workings of human nature and the universe.[2]
Innovation Blues

Foraging With Fraser - YouTube - 0 views

  • A short documentary piece focusing on Fraser Christian a foraging and survival expert. We catch up with Fraser on a days beach foraging along the shoreline of Lyme Regis in Dorset and then get his opinions on free food, the current social climate and government initiatives.
Innovation Blues

Over 350 documents and videos concerning energy scam - 0 views

  • more than 350 documents/videos concerning the energy scam
  • There is an abundant supply of oil in Alaska 376-mpg technology was demonstrated in 1973 72-mpg and 104-mpg automobiles were sold in Europe The Japanese have two water fueled automobiles on the street
Innovation Blues

Top Documentary Films - Watch Free Documentaries Online - 0 views

  • Go through this great collection of documentary movies and watch free documentaries online. Share your thoughts and enjoy.
Innovation Blues

rkhunter - Rootkit Hunter - 0 views

  • rkhunter (Rootkit Hunter) is a Unix-based tool that scans for rootkits, backdoors and possible local exploits.
Innovation Blues

Success Story: Larry Ellison Founder of Oracle - 0 views

  • Success Story
  • Founder of Oracle
  • rags-to-riches tale
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  • Ellison became a bright student, but was not apparently committed to an existence in academia; quitting the University of Chicago after one term, and moving to North California to work for the Amdahl Corporation.
  • Not bad for an adoptee from the Bronx who never met his father.
Innovation Blues

Iceland Recovery 2012 a Trend That Differs Elswehere - 0 views

    • Innovation Blues
       
      Gordon Brown called Iceland a terrorist!
  • . Unemployment is hovering around 6 percent and falling, whereas in the UK the figure is around 8 percent. Iceland's economy is expected to grow around 2.8 percent this year.
  • Iceland
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  • ources are reporting a strong improvement in Iceland's financial situation
  • Iceland is a small country with a population of 319,000, according to the World Bank.
  • rdon Brown, the short-term UK prime minister, specifically pointed the finger, despite many years of Iceland supporting peace and NATO, and serving as an ally of Britain in World War II.
Innovation Blues

The end of privacy: USA Government to deploy laser-based 'molecular strip-search' devic... - 0 views

  • Government to deploy laser-based 'molecular strip-search' devices across airports and roadside checkpoints
  • Within the next two years
  • nstantly scan and identify every molecule on your body or person: the cocaine residue on your dollar bills, prescription drugs in your purse, marijuana in your pocket and even trace powder residue from your practice session at the gun range.
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  • U.S. government
  • , from a range of 50 meters away.
Innovation Blues

Derren Brown - The Heist on Vimeo - 0 views

  •  
    Demonstration of how people can be brainwashed into doing things they do not wish.
Innovation Blues

Watch what you tweet: How online troll crackdowns threaten freedom of speech | Digital ... - 0 views

  • Abusive comments and racist insults are the stock and trade of the Web, but now British police have begun cracking down and making arrests. What ever happened to freedom of speech, and where do we draw the line?
  • These are not isolated incidents. The UK government is cracking down on Internet trolls.
  •  
    Abusive comments and racist insults are the stock and trade of the Web, but now British police have begun cracking down and making arrests. What ever happened to freedom of speech, and where do we draw the line? These are not isolated incidents. The UK government is cracking down on Internet trolls.
Innovation Blues

Iceland's Economy Is Mending Amid Europe's Malaise - NYTimes.com - 0 views

  • Iceland seems to be doing surprisingly well.
  • It has repaid, early, many of the international loans that kept it afloat. Unemployment is hovering around 6 percent, and falling. And while much of Europe is struggling to pull itself out of the recessionary swamp, Iceland’s economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent this year.
  •  
    Iceland seems to be doing surprisingly well. It has repaid, early, many of the international loans that kept it afloat. Unemployment is hovering around 6 percent, and falling. And while much of Europe is struggling to pull itself out of the recessionary swamp, Iceland's economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent this year.
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