Services 2020

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has initiated a study to inspire the first steps in the next era of space exploration-a journey between the stars. Neither the vagaries of the modern fiscal cycle, nor net-present-value calculations over reasonably foreseeable futures, have lent themselves to the kinds of century-long patronage and persistence needed to definitively transform mankind into a space-faring species.

The 100-Year Starship study will examine the business model needed to develop and mature a technology portfolio enabling long-distance manned space flight a century from now.  The year-long study aims to develop a construct that will incentivize and facilitate private co-investment to ensure continuity of the lengthy technological time horizon needed.

" Interview on futures studies, foresight and strategy transformation. Case studies of futures thinking, scenario planning and visioning. Analysis of what works. "

"There's more to tomorrow than robots, flying cars, and a faster internet. 22C+ is all about Deep Futures, futures that matter. Welcome to futures fantastic, unexpected, profound, but most of all deeply meaningful... "

" Enipedia is an active exploration into the applications of wikis and the semantic web for energy and industry issues. Through this we seek to create a collaborative environment for discussion, while also providing the tools that allow for data from different sources to be connected, queried, and visualized from different perspectives. "

"It's a remarkable bit of future artifact creation, as much of the forecast ended up playing out in the subsequent 17 years much as the IDL described. As predictions go, it was usefully on-target. At least, it could have been useful had anyone been paying attention. The IDL was closed the next year, its forecasts essentially forgotten. Knight-Ridder itself was bought out in 2006."

"The current energy landscape is rife with contradictions: Gas prices are shooting up, renewables are being implemented at a seemingly rapid pace, natural gas is being simultaneously demonized and hailed as an energy savior, and electric cars are finally starting to roll off production lines. Fortunately, your tax dollars fund a government agency devoted to making sense of energy. The U.S. Energy Information Administration explains the gritty details of our energy future in its Annual Energy Outlook 2011, which has tracked our projected energy use all the way to 2035. Don't have the time to slog through its myriad charts and tables? We do. Read on for our abbreviated look at the report's most important findings."

"The Lifeboat Foundation is a nonprofit nongovernmental organization dedicated to encouraging scientific advancements while helping humanity survive existential risks and possible misuse of increasingly powerful technologies, including genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and robotics/AI, as we move towards the Singularity."

"The Future of Humanity Institute is a multidisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford. It enables a select set of leading intellects to bring careful thinking to bear on big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects. The Institute belongs to the Faculty of Philosophy and the Oxford Martin School."

"In his classic novel "Invisible Cities," Italo Calvino envisioned a building, in a city called Fedora, containing a series of small globes. The visitor peering into each would see a small city, a model of a different Fedora. "These are the forms the city could have taken," wrote Calvino, "if for one reason or another, it had not become what we see today." In the real world, one can stand on a street in Manhattan and look into one's iPhone, where the app "Museum of the Phantom City: Other Futures" reveals the New York that might have been: from the fantastic (Buckminster Fuller's projected Midtown-covering dome) to the nearly realized (Diller and Scofidio's Eyebeam Museum)."

"From the Gold Rush to the rise of the film industry, from the free speech movement to the emergence of Silicon Valley, California has always been a frontier-a place of change and innovation, and today the state is facing some of its toughest challenges yet. Looking ahead, we need to ask … Will California reinvent itself again for the 21st century? Can everyday citizens be empowered to help transform California? Will California keep growing, start conserving, reinvent itself, or completely collapse? These were the questions posed to the participants of IFTF's California Dreams: Which Future is Yours contest-challenging everyday people to make a better future for our state."

"After having lived in Taipei for ten years, Troy Parfitt sets out on an epic journey to test the theory that China is ascending toward a position of global hegemony. The result is whirlwind tour of the Chinese world, one that enlightens, astonishes, and entertains. Parfitt shows us he is the perfect China tour guide: the steward of an intimate knowledge of the nation's history, culture, and psyche - yet not serving any interest other than an investigative one. Here is a unique and powerful book, one that will change the way people think about China and its "great rise.""

"Business-as-usual in the financial sector is blowing up a bubble even bigger than the real estate bubble which burst in the 1930s. "

" Sustainable computing is a rapidly expanding research area spanning the fields of computer science and engineering, electrical engineering as well as other engineering disciplines. The aim of Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems (SUSCOM) is to publish the myriad research findings related to energy-aware and thermal-aware management of computing resource. Equally important is a spectrum of related research issues such as applications of computing that can have ecological and societal impacts. SUSCOM publishes original and timely research papers and survey articles in current areas of power, energy, temperature, and environment related research areas of current importance to readers. SUSCOM has an editorial board comprising prominent researchers from around the world and selects competitively evaluated peer-reviewed papers. "

"IFTF's Foresight Engine drives engaged forecasting. It creates a fast flow of micro-forecasts from hundreds or thousands of participants in just a day or two. It's all about focused insights and innovation-the discovery of social wisdom and outlier ideas. "

" Verbalizing visceral feelings about technology, whether attraction or repulsion, Kelly explores the "technium," his term for the globalized, interconnected stage of technological development. Arguing that the processes creating the technium are akin to those of biological evolution, Kelly devotes the opening sections of his exposition to that analogy, maintaining that the technium exhibits a similar tendency toward self-organizing complexity. Having defined the technium, Kelly addresses its discontents, as expressed by the Unabomber (although Kelly admits to trepidation in taking seriously the antitechnology screeds of a murderer) and then as lived by the allegedly technophobic Amish. From his observations and discussions with some Amish people, Kelly extracts some precepts of their attitudes toward gadgets, suggesting folk in the secular world can benefit from the Amish approach of treating tools as servants of self and society rather than as out-of-control masters. Exploring ramifications of technology on human welfare and achievement, Kelly arrives at an optimistic outlook that will interest many, coming, as it does, from the former editor of Wired magazine. --Gilbert Taylor "

"Increasingly, the energy we consume to heat and power our communities, will be produced locally. Unfortunately, many of the strategies we use to produce energy are vulnerable due to specialization. We are too dependent on specific forms of energy and the dedicated equipment used to utilize it. "

"Another perspective that I believe is missing from Bruce Nussbaum's critique of the design thinking movement is a deeper analysis of why design thinking was believed to be a compelling process in the first place. If we think about its popularity as a design solution to a societal problem, we can critique it as we would a prototype. I believe design thinking attempts to respond to a series of current societal aspirations. This week's blog will look at aspirations on a collective basis and part two will look at those on an individual basis. "