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Mars Base

'Predictive policing' takes byte out of crime - 0 views

phys.org/...12-07-policing-byte-crime.html

GrabBag PredictingCrime

shared by Mars Base on 29 Jul 12 - No Cached
  • Without some of the sci-fi gimmickry, police departments from Santa Cruz, California, to Memphis, Tennessee, and law enforcement agencies from Poland to Britain have adopted these new techniques
  • criminals follow patterns, and with software -- the same kind that retailers like Wal-Mart and Amazon use to determine consumer purchasing trends -- police can determine where the next crime will occur and sometimes prevent it.
  • criminal behavior was not that different from examining other types of behavior like shopping
  • ...29 more annotations...
  • People are creatures of habit
  • could help in cities where tight budgets were forcing patrol reductions.
  • The key to success in predictive policing is getting as much data as possible to determine patterns. This can be especially useful in property crimes like auto theft and burglary, where patterns can be detected
  • factors in attributes like the time of year, whether it is hot and humid or cold and snowy, if it is a payday when people are carrying a lot of cash
  • not saying a crime will occur at a particular time and place
  • can expect a wave of vehicle thefts based one everything we know
  • officials said serious crimes fell 30 percent and violent crimes declined 15 percent since implementing predictive analytics
  • in 2006
  • CRUSH -- Criminal Reduction Utilizing Statistical History
  • targeted certain "hot spots" to allow police to deploy more efficiently
  • "If the data is indicating a hot spot, we are able to immediately deploy resources there
  • beat officers can use their instincts for similar results
  • software could be far more precise, such as predicting burglaries in a small geographic area between 10 pm and 2 am.
  • the software was able to help police break up a group that was committing armed robberies
  • 84 robberies, but we had no idea it was so organized
  • crunching the numbers, police were able to pinpoint the zone and time of likely holdups
  • police officials from as far away as Hong Kong, Rio de Janeiro and Estonia have come to review the experience in Memphis
  • In Los Angeles, another program
  • was tested in a single precinct, and resulted in a 12 percent drop in crime while the rest of the city saw a 0.2 percent increase
  • led to the creation of a company called PredPol
  • based on a model from mathematician
  • science that underlies the tool will work anywhere. The question is does the agency maintain a database
  • While
  • helping "smarter" policing, it does raise concerns about Big Brother-like snooping
  • technology could be positive but that it could lower the threshold for constitutional protections on "unreasonable" searches.
  • IBM's Cleverly said the technology can in many cases improve privacy
  • How do you cross-examine a computer
  • If the search is based on a computer algorithm
  • how will this affect reasonable suspicion
  • Mars Base on 29 Jul 12
     
    nd in a lot of instances we are able to make quality arrests because we're in the right area at the right time," he told AFP. Although beat officers can use their instincts for similar results, Williams said the software could be far more precise, such as predicting burglaries in a small geographic area between 10 pm and 2 am. In one case, the software was able to help police break up a group that was committing armed robbe
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