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Authorities say the spill began Tuesday, when someone opened the cisterns at an oil refinery turned depot near Monza, letting tens of thousands of liters (thousands of gallons)of oil pour unimpeded into the Lambro River, a tributary of the Po. Prosecutors have launched an investigation into the spill. Authorities say it's certain someone intentionally opened the cisterns. By Wednesday, despite efforts to contain the slick with absorbent pads and the closure of hydroelectric locks, the oil seeped from the Lambro into the Po, Italy's longest river, which flows west-to-east across the country. And Thursday, the country's disaster relief chief, Guido Bertolaso, said he expects most of the slick to be cleaned up over the next day. "I believe this is not an irreparable situation," Bertolaso said after meeting with regional officials amid criticism from environmental groups and opposition lawmakers that the government had been slow to respond. "I believe that in the next 24 hours most of this oily mass will be recovered and then, following the course of the river, before it reaches Ferrara and obviously before it reaches the delta, we will be able to recover all the rest," said Bertolaso, head of the civil protection agency. The World Wildlife Fund for Nature says thousands of birds — ducks, herons and others — are nesting and reproducing in the area, which it called one of the most important in Europe. In addition, several fish species — eel, shad and mullet — reproduce in the waters. "The entire ecological and economic system is at risk," WWF warned in a statement. Officials have said water in the area is safe to drink, but provinces have issued fishing and boating bans for affected parts of the Po. Coldiretti said food was safe since farm production is low anyway at this time of the year, and heavy rains have meant that the Po won't be needed for irrigation for some time. "There are no risks for food on the table or damage to cultivation," Coldiretti said in a statement, adding that the rain forecast in coming days means that the oil will be further diluted and the residue dispersed. But those same rains are worrying environmental groups, which have warned that high water levels in the Po mean the oil will spread to the Po's other tributaries and streams, causing broader environmental degradation. And the Confagricultura farm group said the repercussions of the spill will be felt in small tributary farm communities, particularly as water demands increase with the spring planting of rice.

By combining a hurricane model and coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to investigate the early Pliocene, Emanuel, Brierley and co-author Alexey Fedorov observed how vertical ocean mixing by hurricanes near the equator caused shallow parcels of water to heat up and later resurface in the eastern equatorial Pacific as part of the ocean wind-driven circulation. The researchers conclude from this pattern that frequent hurricanes in the central Pacific likely strengthened the warm pool in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which in turn increased hurricane frequency — an interaction described by Emanuel as a “two-way feedback process.”�The researchers believe that in addition to creating more hurricanes, the intense hurricane activity likely created a permanent El Nino like state in which very warm water in the eastern Pacific near the equator extended to higher latitudes. The El Nino weather pattern, which is caused when warm water replaces cold water in the Pacific, can impact the global climate by intermittently altering atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation patterns.The research suggests that Earth’s climate system may have at least two states — the one we currently live in that has relatively few tropical cyclones and relatively cold water, including in the eastern part of the Pacific, and the one during the Pliocene that featured warm sea surface temperatures, permanent El Nino conditions and high tropical cyclone activity.Although the paper does not suggest a direct link with current climate models, Fedorov said it is possible that future global warming could cause Earth to transition into a different equilibrium state that has more hurricanes and permanent El Nino conditions. “So far, there is no evidence in our simulations that this transition is going to occur at least in the next century. However, it’s still possible that the condition can occur in the future.”�Whether our future world is characterized by a mean state that is more El Nino-like remains one of the most important unanswered questions in climate dynamics, according to Matt Huber, a professor in Purdue University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. The Pliocene was a warmer time than now with high carbon dioxide levels. The present study found that hurricanes influenced by weakened atmospheric circulation — possibly related to high levels of carbon dioxide — contributed to very warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which in turn led to more frequent and intense hurricanes. The research indicates that Earth’s climate may have multiple states based on this feedback cycle, meaning that the climate could change qualitatively in response to the effects of global warming.