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JEL Classification: O31 O34 L10

Abstract, from the PDF: The optimal term of copyright has been a matter for extensive debate over the last decade. Based on a novel approach we derive an explicit formula which charac- terises the optimal term as a function of a few key and, most importantly, empirically- estimable parameters. Using existing data on recordings and books we obtain a point estimate of around 15 years for optimal copyright term with a 99% confidence interval extending up to 38 years. This is substantially shorter than any current copyright term and implies that existing terms are too long.