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NEP: New Economics Papers Urban and Real Estate Economics Edited by: Steve Ross University of Connecticut Issue date: 2012-04-17 Papers: 23 Note: Access to full contents may be restricted.  NEP is sponsored by SUNY Oswego. To subscribe/unsubscribe follow this link http://lists.repec.org/mailman/options/nep-ure In this issue we have: Is India's Manufacturing Sector Moving Away From Cities? Ejaz Ghani; Arti Grover Goswami; William R. Kerr A Regional Model of Endogenous Growth with Creative Destruction Steven Bond-Smith Local average neighborhood effects from moving to opportunity Dionissi Aliprantis; Francisca G.-C. Richter Compulsory Schooling Laws and In-School Crime: Are Delinquents Incapacitated? Gregory A. Gilpin; Luke A. Pennig What price a roof? Housing and the cost of living in 16th-century Toledo Drelichman, Mauricio; Gonzalez Agudo, David Well-Being in Germany: GDP and Unemployment Still Matter Johannes Vatter Landfill Diversion in a Decentralized Setting: a Dynamic Assessment of Landfill Taxes Massimiliano Mazzanti; Francesco Nicolli Taxing home ownership: distributional effects of including net imputed rent in taxable income Francesco Figari; Alari Paulus; Holly Sutherland; Panos Tsakloglou; Gerlinde Verbist; Francesca Zantomio Early Childhood "Pay-For-Success" Social Impact Finance: A PKSE Bond Example to Increase School Readiness and Reduce Special Education Costs Robert Dugger; Robert Litan Complex Methods in Economics: An Example of Behavioral Heterogeneity in House Prices Bolt, W.; Demertzis, D.; Diks, C.G.H.; Van der Leij, M.J. Robust Test for Spatial Error Model:Considering Changes of Spatial Layouts and Distribution Misspecification Guo, Penghui; Liu, Lihu Comparing Treatments across Labor Markets: An Assessment of Nonexperimental Multiple-Treatment Strategies Carlos A. Flores; Oscar A. Mitnik Understanding Places Using a Mixed Method Approach Deutsch, Kathleen E; Goulias, Konstadinos G. Hope VI Fairfield Court Neighborhood: 2011 Evaluat

Bubble trouble in Brazil Property prices are skyrocketing in Brazil. The construction sector is booming. And the mortgage market is expanding rapidly. But there is a growing concern that all this is unsustainable. And imbalances in the economy - an overvalued currency and high inflation - are exacerbating the dangers of the looming credit and property bubble. The average asking prices of new apartments across the country soared by 24.7% in April 2011 from a year earlier, according to Exame Magazine (using data from Ibope Intelligence, the largest Brazilian market intelligence firm). Based on the Ibope Intelligence figures, in April 2011:       *In Ipanema, Rio de Janeiro's most expensive district, the average price of        new properties rose 36% y-o-y to BRL13,031 (US$8,212) per sq. m., while the        price of existing properties increased 25% y-o-y to BRL12,134 (US$7,646)        per sq. m.       *In Jardim Paulista, Sao Paolo's most expensive district, the average price        of new properties rose 39% y-o-y to BRL9,120 per sq. m (US$5,747); the        average price of existing properties escalated 49% y-o-y to BRL6,959        (US$4,385) per sq. m. The FIPE ZAP Index of Dwelling Price Offers shows Sao Paolo dwelling prices up 25.9% during the year to April 2011, and up 83.7% over the past 3 years. In just two years (2008-2010), the average selling price of new one-bedroom apartments in São Paulo almost doubled. Newly launched two to four-bedroom apartments increased in value by between 40% and 60% over the same period, according to Embraesp, a local real estate research firm. Looking longer term, from 1996 to 2010, prices of newly launched apartments in São Paolo rose by almost 229% (131.6% in real terms), according to Embraesp, as the accompanying graph shows. For all years since 1996 price rises have been strongly positive, except in 2007, when house prices dropped slightly due

China is going to have a collapse soon. In the last ten years the new construction market has grown at 30% per yer. Its being supported by government paying for massive new real estate development. One day the Gov't in China is going to quit paying for this expansion and then it's really going to hurt.

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