Bubble trouble in Brazil
Property prices are skyrocketing in Brazil. The construction sector is booming. And the mortgage market is expanding rapidly. But there is a growing concern that all this is unsustainable. And imbalances in the economy - an overvalued currency and high inflation - are exacerbating the dangers of the looming credit and property bubble.
The average asking prices of new apartments across the country soared by 24.7% in April 2011 from a year earlier, according to Exame Magazine (using data from Ibope Intelligence, the largest Brazilian market intelligence firm).
Based on the Ibope Intelligence figures, in April 2011:
*In Ipanema, Rio de Janeiro's most expensive district, the average price of new properties rose 36% y-o-y to BRL13,031 (US$8,212) per sq. m., while the price of existing properties increased 25% y-o-y to BRL12,134 (US$7,646) per sq. m.
*In Jardim Paulista, Sao Paolo's most expensive district, the average price of new properties rose 39% y-o-y to BRL9,120 per sq. m (US$5,747); the average price of existing properties escalated 49% y-o-y to BRL6,959 (US$4,385) per sq. m.
The FIPE ZAP Index of Dwelling Price Offers shows Sao Paolo dwelling prices up 25.9% during the year to April 2011, and up 83.7% over the past 3 years.
In just two years (2008-2010), the average selling price of new one-bedroom apartments in São Paulo almost doubled. Newly launched two to four-bedroom apartments increased in value by between 40% and 60% over the same period, according to Embraesp, a local real estate research firm.
Looking longer term, from 1996 to 2010, prices of newly launched apartments in São Paolo rose by almost 229% (131.6% in real terms), according to Embraesp, as the accompanying graph shows. For all years since 1996 price rises have been strongly positive, except in 2007, when house prices dropped slightly due
China is going to have a collapse soon. In the last ten years the new construction market has grown at 30% per yer. Its being supported by government paying for massive new real estate development. One day the Gov't in China is going to quit paying for this expansion and then it's really going to hurt.
NEP: New Economics Papers
Urban and Real Estate Economics
Edited by: Steve Ross
University of Connecticut
Issue date: 2012-04-17
Papers: 23
Note: Access to full contents may be restricted.
NEP is sponsored by SUNY Oswego.
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In this issue we have:
Is India's Manufacturing Sector Moving Away From Cities?
Ejaz Ghani; Arti Grover Goswami; William R. Kerr
A Regional Model of Endogenous Growth with Creative Destruction
Steven Bond-Smith
Local average neighborhood effects from moving to opportunity
Dionissi Aliprantis; Francisca G.-C. Richter
Compulsory Schooling Laws and In-School Crime: Are Delinquents Incapacitated?
Gregory A. Gilpin; Luke A. Pennig
What price a roof? Housing and the cost of living in 16th-century Toledo
Drelichman, Mauricio; Gonzalez Agudo, David
Well-Being in Germany: GDP and Unemployment Still Matter
Johannes Vatter
Landfill Diversion in a Decentralized Setting: a Dynamic Assessment of Landfill Taxes
Massimiliano Mazzanti; Francesco Nicolli
Taxing home ownership: distributional effects of including net imputed rent in taxable income
Francesco Figari; Alari Paulus; Holly Sutherland; Panos Tsakloglou; Gerlinde Verbist; Francesca Zantomio
Early Childhood "Pay-For-Success" Social Impact Finance: A PKSE Bond Example to Increase School Readiness and Reduce Special Education Costs
Robert Dugger; Robert Litan
Complex Methods in Economics: An Example of Behavioral Heterogeneity in House Prices
Bolt, W.; Demertzis, D.; Diks, C.G.H.; Van der Leij, M.J.
Robust Test for Spatial Error Model:Considering Changes of Spatial Layouts and Distribution Misspecification
Guo, Penghui; Liu, Lihu
Comparing Treatments across Labor Markets: An Assessment of Nonexperimental Multiple-Treatment Strategies
Carlos A. Flores; Oscar A. Mitnik
Understanding Places Using a Mixed Method Approach
Deutsch, Kathleen E; Goulias, Konstadinos G.
Hope VI Fairfield Court Neighborhood: 2011 Evaluat
Property and Construction Research Group
Research in property and construction covers a wide range of activities. While we are interested in every aspect of research in property and construction, there are particular areas we specialise in. These include property valuation, construction and project management, construction economics, and energy use in buildings.
In property and planning, our recent research has focused on business improvement districts, the use of taxation in sustainable development, and property and development finance. Property research has also focused on commercial leases and rent reviews.
Research into the technical aspects of construction concerns the role of building services and design technology for low carbon building. Other research is concerned with fibre-reinforced concrete, passive solar design, and energy issues of the built environment.
Our construction management research focuses on incentivisation schemes in project management, risk management of projects and project finance. Research in construction economics has been in infrastructure markets, international construction and economic theory applied to the construction sector.
For further information, please contact Dr Stephen Gruneberg on s.gruneberg@westminster.ac.uk
Areas of expertise
Construction technology
Low energy
Fibre-reinforced sprayed concrete
Building conservation
Construction management
Project and organisation, risk
Property
Valuation Finance
Construction economics
International construction
Construction markets
Construction labour
Specialist contractors
Economic theory of construction
Staff research interests and outputs
Debbie Ancell - sustainability, construction forensics
Martin Ball - Project management
John Begg - energy use in housing
Tony Burke - building conservation, adaptation and usage of buildings.
Masi Farjadmand - fibre reinforced sprayed concrete
Colin Gleeson - low energy building and implications.
Monica Grinfeld - energy conser
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