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Dennis OConnor

New WhatsApp chatbot unleashes power of worldwide fact-checking organizations to fight ... - 0 views

www.poynter.org/...abase-of-more-than-4000-hoaxes

factcheck confirmation-bias

shared by Dennis OConnor on 05 May 20 - No Cached
  • Dennis OConnor on 05 May 20
     
    Recommended by Carl Heine, Ph.D. "ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. (May 4, 2020) - The Poynter Institute's International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) today launches a chatbot on WhatsApp to connect its millions of users with the translated work of more than 80 fact-checking organizations worldwide. By using the IFCN's chatbot on WhatsApp, citizens can easily check whether content about COVID-19 has already been rated as false by professional fact-checkers."
Dennis OConnor

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data - 4 views

www.statnews.com/...ecisions-without-reliable-data

covid testing research pandemic data

shared by Dennis OConnor on 19 Mar 20 - No Cached
  • A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
  • This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19.
  • As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.
  • ...8 more annotations...
  • The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.
  • Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).
  • Although successful surveillance systems have long existed for influenza, the disease is confirmed by a laboratory in a tiny minority of cases.
  • Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 1610 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
  • In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns.
  • This has been the perspective behind the different stance of the United Kingdom keeping schools open12, at least until as I write this. In the absence of data on the real course of the epidemic, we don’t know whether this perspective was brilliant or catastrophic.
  • One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health.
  • At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
  • Dennis OConnor on 19 Mar 20
     
    Dr. Michael Kurisu D.O. "My take is this article is written by a very credible source. John P.A. Ioannidis is from Stanford and great resource. Makes argument that we are basing a LOT of our decisions on faulty or NO data ! Its fascinating to me that there has been less than 10,000 deaths globally and we have had SO MUCH DISRUPTION in the economy. I definitely feel we should be tracking the amount of deaths that are going to occur from people that will be pushed into poverty as well as the number of people being denied access to medical care right now. Yes… with COVID19, it CAN get much worse…. But maybe not… we don't know yet. This article actually increased my morale and put me on track to help GET MORE DATA. Then we can make informed decisions. And then TRACK ALL THE DATA moving forward.
  • Dennis OConnor on 19 Mar 20
     
    DeAunne Denmark, MD, PhD, "Excellent piece spelling out the pervasive and critical issues due to abysmal lack/tardiness in US testing, especially of large populations where initial outbreaks occurred, for those both visibly sick and not. And most importantly, healthcare workers. We cannot even begin to estimate CFR, much less develop reliable projection models, without valid data on everybody who is carrying. "The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections."
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