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MK-869 wasn't the only highly anticipated medical breakthrough to be undone in recent years by the placebo effect. From 2001 to 2006, the percentage of new products cut from development after Phase II clinical trials, when drugs are first tested against placebo, rose by 20 percent. The failure rate in more extensive Phase III trials increased by 11 percent, mainly due to surprisingly poor showings against placebo. Despite historic levels of industry investment in R&D, the US Food and Drug Administration approved only 19 first-of-their-kind remedies in 2007—the fewest since 1983—and just 24 in 2008. Half of all drugs that fail in late-stage trials drop out of the pipeline due to their inability to beat sugar pills.

In a report published in 2011, scientists pooled data from eight randomized studies of 24,000 children between the ages of 6 months and 7 years. They found that those who received the FluMist vaccine, a nasal spray made with live but weakened flu virus, had a significantly lower risk of acute ear infections compared with children who received a placebo. Among children who ultimately got the flu, those who had been vaccinated had a 40 percent reduction in ear infections compared with children who were given a placebo.