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The Business Insider reports that OPEC is expecting oil at US$75 a barrel by the end of the year - Even If Oil Hits $90, OPEC Won't Increase Production. Oil prices could reach $80-$90 a barrel by early next year, but OPEC will not increase its output until a huge amount of over-supply has been absorbed, the group's Secretary General said on Tuesday. OPEC officials have been nudging up their price aspirations since Saudi Arabia's oil minister said last week an oil price of around $75 could be achieved later this year and would not undermine a tentative global economic recovery. "The price will go to $80-$90 maybe at the beginning of 2010," OPEC's Abdullah al-Badri told the Reuters Global Energy Summit. "I don't think the price will go down... By the end of the year we'll see $75. $80-$85 is possible -- not with the demand we see at this time, but if demand picks up month after month, then maybe we'll see this price."

When OPEC meet on 17th December, how will they go about deciding the size of the inevitable production cuts? All OPEC states want the oil price to rise from current $44 / bbl (WTI). Some states will also be concerned that the price target is affordable by their OECD customers. But set against a backdrop of global economic turmoil and volatility in all markets, how do they judge the size of the production cut required to deliver the target price? Saudi Arabia is reported to favor a price of $75 / bbl, just short of the cost of new marginal supply in the OECD. Achieving this price in the medium term would keep OPEC in the driving seat. This short post is intended to be a discussion thread. Below the fold, I outline one radical idea for OPEC to achieve their goal in the short term.

OPEC on Wednesday agreed to slash 2.2 million barrels from its daily production - its single largest cut ever - while bloc outsiders Russia and Azerbaijan announced their own cutbacks of hundreds of thousands of barrels from the market. "I hope we surprised you," OPEC President Chekib Khelil said when asked whether the size of the cut would shock moribund oil markets into an upward trend. "If you're not surprised we need to so something about it."

The oil producers' cartel Opec has agreed to make a record cut in output, slashing 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from its current supply. Opec has made two other cuts since September, meaning it has cut a total of 4.2 million bpd in four months. Despite the record cut, oil prices continued to fall as US data provided fresh evidence of falling demand. US light, sweet crude for January fell as low as $39.94 a barrel, its first time been below $40 since July 2004.

OPEC has cut oil production targets for the first time in almost 2 years to stem a collapse in prices. The 13 OPEC nations decided to lower supply by 1.5 million barrels a day from Nov 2008, oil ministers said today [24 Oct 2008] at the end of a meeting at the group's Vienna's headquarters. Crude oil has tumbled 57% from a July 11 record of $147.27 a barrel as the financial market crisis spreads, job cuts increase and fuel consumption slows. Prices fell as much as 7.1% to $63.05 on NYMEX after the decision. Another cut in December is "possible," depending on how the oil market reacts, Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said.

With demand slowing and supplies rising, the world is awash in oil - sending prices crashing by more than 50 percent from a record high of $147 a barrel just three months ago. That has prompted oil producers to convene an emergency meeting to try to regain some control over prices. But as OPEC ministers sit down Friday in Vienna to decide on production cuts they face a number of thorny obstacles to regaining control of the market.

I've been getting a lot of calls and e-mails from people asking about the falling prices for oil in recent weeks. The immediate explanation is that world economic activity is decelerating. Demand is falling. OPEC announced cuts in output. But the markets still believe that economic decline will trump the ability of OPEC to prop up the price of oil. Enjoy it while it lasts. Just over the horizon, things are about to become dicey. This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release a new report on the future of world energy. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA will state categorically that "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable." There's not much wiggle room in that statement. According to the IEA, despite the recent fall in oil prices, the medium- and long-term outlooks for energy supply are grim. Conventional oil output is destined to decline. Demand will still grow, however, especially in the developing world. And the twain shall only meet by prices rising to clear the market. "It is," as our Arab friends like to say, "written."

With oil prices off nearly 30 percent from their highs of almost $150 a barrel, OPEC oil ministers are considering what was unthinkable just a few weeks ago - cutting back output to prop up the price of crude. No one is predicting much of a cutback - if any at all. Still, such a move would not even have been thought of with oil prices setting record after record back in July.

Crude oil prices rose sharply on the world's commodity markets tonight after the head of Opec dismissed as "irrational and illogical" a call by Gordon Brown for the cartel to pump more oil.

Once again Gordon Brown has got energy policy all wrong. Even before Opec announced an output cut of 1.5 million barrels per day, the Prime Minister had denounced the move as "absolutely scandalous", fearing it would force the oil price higher just as the world slides into recession. He needn't have worried, since the cost of crude continued to fall on Friday to just under $63.

True to their word, the 2008 World Energy Outlook represents a significant development by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the philosophy and methodology of their oil supply forecasts. The report attempts a bottom-up model of the world's oil production potential and even revises down estimates previously taken at face value from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The tone of the report has also changed dramatically, with an urgent call for investment in additional oil projects to avoid production shortfalls by 2015. Despite those significant changes, the report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries. These are the real factors that will send oil production into decline, but at least now we have some numbers we can discuss and analyze instead of a decade of blind faith in oil market economics.

Barack Obama has said that energy is going to be one of his top priorities. I believe he is completely sincere about this and that energy will get a lot of attention early on in his administration. I believe he is committed to moving the U.S. toward energy independence and a greener energy future. However, one can recognize energy as an important priority, yet sharply differ on the policy direction that is needed. For instance, some may have energy as a high priority because they feel that gasoline is too expensive. Their priority may be to keep gasoline prices low so people's budgets aren't adversely impacted by their fuel bills. Some can see energy as a top priority, and yet promote solutions like suing OPEC for more oil.

The Economist has a look at some of the factors affecting oil production, warning "Oil prices have plunged. Another spike may be on its way" - Well prepared. WITH the price of crude mired at half the peak of $147 it reached in July, this may seem like an odd time to invest in oil wells. Despite trimming its output along with other members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in an effort to prop up prices, that is just what the United Arab Emirates plans to do. Short-term price movements, its oil minister insists, should not distract from the world's enduring thirst for oil. Indeed the collapse of oil prices, one of the few reasons around for economic cheer, may be setting the stage for another spike. Just now oilmen are focused on the rapidly slowing demand for their product. Since early October, reckons the boss of BP, a big oil firm, America's consumption of crude has fallen by perhaps 2m barrels a day, or about a tenth. Sales of cars in America fell even more steeply last month-by 32%. There is also gloomy news from emerging markets, which have been the driving force in the oil markets of late. Demand for oil is growing much more slowly in China and India, for example, and car sales are down in both countries. There is even talk of global oil demand falling next year, for the first time since 1991.

An Iraqi plan to award six no-bid contracts to Western oil companies, which came under sharp criticism from several United States senators this summer, has been withdrawn, participants in the negotiations said on Wednesday. Iraq's oil minister, Hussain al-Shahristani, told reporters at an OPEC summit meeting in Vienna on Tuesday that talks with Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, Total, BP and several smaller companies for one-year deals, which were announced in June and subsequently delayed, had dragged on for so long that the companies could not now fulfill the work within that time frame. The companies confirmed on Wednesday that the deals had been canceled.

"Conservation" virtually snowballs negative connotations these days. From eye or ear through my kinked brain cord, the word is rooted tenderly with Woodsy Owl's "Give a Hoot" campaign, which sometimes blends into Old Mr. Owl of Tootsie Pop perfections. If the idle of lost innocence doesn't distract me too long, I'm helplessly catapulted through Carter's pullover sweaters; OPEC mischief and the 1970s gas crunch; the plight of struggling loggers and seal clubbers; earth shoes and the FBI's most wanted eco-prankster. But somehow it all ends at Cheney's subterranean sneer.

If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding. Matt Simmons argues that Saudi Arabia's oil supplies are much more limited than everyone thinks. (Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?

Since the beginning of the modern oil age in 1859, pessimists have warned that the oil wells would soon dry up or that oil production would peak and not be able to keep up with ever-increasing demand. Again and again, the pessimists have been proven wrong, often embarrassingly so, as science and technology have allowed more oil to be extracted from existing fields and from deposits in more challenging locations such as the Arctic and the deepest waters of the continental shelf. Indeed, oil production rates have increased, on average, by about 1.1 million barrels per day per year over the past 10 years.

Energy ministers of advanced nations expressed "serious concerns" about soaring oil prices and urged producers to lift production through greater investment and provide more transparency on oil supply data. A joint communiqué by the Group of Eight ministers, also signed by China, India and South Korea, stopped short of the tough language demanded by Kevin Rudd, Australia's prime minister. He urged G8 leaders to "apply the blowtorch to Opec", which he blamed for the rise in crude oil prices to a record $138.54, after a $10.75 jump on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday.

As the pain induced by higher oil prices spreads to an ever growing share of the American (and world) population, pundits and politicians have been quick to blame assorted villains--greedy oil companies, heartless commodity speculators and OPEC. It's true that each of these parties has contributed to and benefited from the steep run-up. But the sharp growth in petroleum costs is due far more to a combination of soaring international demand and slackening supply--compounded by the ruinous policies of the Bush Administration--than to the behavior of those other actors.