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The forthcoming IEA report continues to generate plenty of advance press. It seems some of the production decline numbers that generated so much initial chatter are actually for already declining fields - not ones growing or holding steady, so they don't really mean all that much (its the average across all fields that really counts, which may still be around the 4.5% figure CERA predicts). MSN - IEA sees oil above $100, recognizes supply limit. The world will have to live with the risk of an energy supply crunch and an oil price well above $100 a barrel in the years to come, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Massive investment of more than $26 trillion will be needed in the next 20 years to offset the impact of falling supply at aging oilfields and ensure the world has enough energy, the IEA said. "There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch (by 2015)," the IEA said in an executive summary of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) to be released in full next week. "The gap now evident between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010."

So burn this into your mind: between 2007 and 2008 the IEA radically changed its assessment. Until this year's report, the agency mocked people who said that oil supplies might peak. In the foreword to a book it published in 2005, its executive director, Claude Mandil, dismissed those who warned of this event as "doomsayers". "The IEA has long maintained that none of this is a cause for concern," he wrote. "Hydrocarbon resources around the world are abundant and will easily fuel the world through its transition to a sustainable energy future."(7) In its 2007 World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted a rate of decline in output from the world's existing oilfields of 3.7% a year(8). This, it said, presented a short-term challenge, with the possibility of a temporary supply crunch in 2015, but with sufficient investment any shortfall could be covered. But the new report, published last month, carried a very different message: a projected rate of decline of 6.7%, which means a much greater gap to fill(9).

I've been getting a lot of calls and e-mails from people asking about the falling prices for oil in recent weeks. The immediate explanation is that world economic activity is decelerating. Demand is falling. OPEC announced cuts in output. But the markets still believe that economic decline will trump the ability of OPEC to prop up the price of oil. Enjoy it while it lasts. Just over the horizon, things are about to become dicey. This week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release a new report on the future of world energy. In its World Energy Outlook, the IEA will state categorically that "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable." There's not much wiggle room in that statement. According to the IEA, despite the recent fall in oil prices, the medium- and long-term outlooks for energy supply are grim. Conventional oil output is destined to decline. Demand will still grow, however, especially in the developing world. And the twain shall only meet by prices rising to clear the market. "It is," as our Arab friends like to say, "written."

The independent body said the huge price of tackling climate change will eventually be overtaken by the cost of remaining dependent on fossil fuels, which are becoming more difficult and expensive to extract. It estimates that Europe's annual energy bill will more than double to $500bn (£300bn) by 2030, as the oil price is likely to reach $100 per barrel by 2015 and $190 by 2030. Publishing its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA was also forced to defend its reputation as the world's leading provider of statistics on fossil fuels, following claims that it exaggerated oil resources under pressure from the US.

The independent body said the huge price of tackling climate change will eventually be overtaken by the cost of remaining dependent on fossil fuels, which are becoming more difficult and expensive to extract. It estimates that Europe's annual energy bill will more than double to $500bn (£300bn) by 2030, as the oil price is likely to reach $100 per barrel by 2015 and $190 by 2030. Publishing its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA was also forced to defend its reputation as the world's leading provider of statistics on fossil fuels, following claims that it exaggerated oil resources under pressure from the US.

"Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45m bpd of gross capacity - roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia - would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline", according to Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the IEA, speaking at a news conference in London. Oil reached a record peak of more than $147 a barrel in July, but has fallen back below $60, a drop of more than 50pc. Given the high cost of bringing on new output and the struggle to match supplies with demand, the IEA has assumed consumers will pay an average of $100 a barrel for oil over the next seven years and more beyond that. "Current trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable - environmentally, economically and socially - they can and must be altered," said Mr Tanaka. * o Text Size o click here to increase the text size o click here to decrease the text size * Email this article * Print this article * Share this article o delicious o Digg o Facebook o Fark o Google o Newsvine o NowPublic o Reddit o StumbleUpon http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/3448385/Credit-crunch-risks-world-oil-supply.html Related Content * More on Oil and Gas More on ... Oil and Gas Get feed updates Finance Get feed updates Energy Get feed updates telegraph tools Switch Utilities Save on fuel bills Search the market for the best prices on gas and electricity. Telegraph Utilities Comparison Service Advertisement telegraph financial partners Investment solutions * Investor services * Portfolio management * Investing for income guide * Inheritance tax advice * Reader guides Finance most viewed * TODAY * PAST WEEK * PAST MONTH 1. Row breaks out at easyJet 2. Abandon all hope once you enter deflation 3. B

True to their word, the 2008 World Energy Outlook represents a significant development by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the philosophy and methodology of their oil supply forecasts. The report attempts a bottom-up model of the world's oil production potential and even revises down estimates previously taken at face value from the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The tone of the report has also changed dramatically, with an urgent call for investment in additional oil projects to avoid production shortfalls by 2015. Despite those significant changes, the report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries. These are the real factors that will send oil production into decline, but at least now we have some numbers we can discuss and analyze instead of a decade of blind faith in oil market economics.

As I read through the 2008 International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook, I had the distinct impression that I was reading contributions from people with completely opposite points of view. The pessimist warned that we are facing a supply crunch and much higher prices. The optimist in the report said that oil production won't peak before 2030. This trend held in the section on renewable energy. The optimist noted that renewable energy is expected to ramp "expand rapidly." The pessimist noted that biofuels are predicted to only supply 5% of our road transport fuel in 2030. And so the report goes, part rampant optimism and part rampant pessimism.

Newsweek has an article on how "cleaner energy can create jobs and reignite global growth" - Why It's Time for a 'Green New Deal'. In rented offices on a quiet side street in Paris, not far from the Eiffel Tower, analysts for the International Energy Agency spend long days and nights crunching numbers about oil production and greenhouse-gas emissions. They're the staid, sober global accountants who watch over the power supply for the 30 rich countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and their many reports are dry and technical. But lately, the group's pronouncements have taken on more ominous overtones. With a sense of urgency bordering on desperation, the IEA has begun calling for radical changes in the way the world drives its cars, its factories and, indeed, the global economy. This month the agency will issue a collection of comprehensive reports declaring that "a global revolution is needed in ways that energy is supplied and used." That kind of rhetoric has become familiar to U.S. voters, who've spent months listening to both presidential candidates tout their energy plans. Barack Obama has promised to "strategically invest" $150 billion over 10 years to build a clean-energy economy, one that will create 5 million new green jobs.

What's up with oil prices? Well, it's not speculators, and there's no relief in sight, meaning at least five more years of high prices with no easy fixes. The ugly truth? Peak oil isn't fringe anymore-it's going mainstream. That's the reading from the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency, the rich-country energy watchdog. The IEA's latest x-ray of the oil market includes plenty of disturbing nuggets.

On this basis, we estimate that the average observed decline rate worldwide is 6.7%. Were that rate applied to 2007 crude oil production the annual loss of output would be 4.7mmbpd.

Global oil production capacity will be insufficient within six years, according to Nobuo Tanaka, executive director of the International Energy Agency. Capacity will improve over the next two years, and ``after 2013, the situation is somewhat worrisome,'' Tanaka said today in Berlin. ``There is not enough capacity and we want to see much more expansion.''

June 11 (Bloomberg) -- The world faces an ``oil crisis,'' and the International Energy Agency stands ready to release emergency stockpiles even as the biggest consumers discuss measures to contain spiraling demand, the agency's chief said.