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John Muellbauer: A housing-led recession is looking very likely (vox) - 0 views

  • Looking ahead Looking forward, the research suggests a UK recession will be hard to avoid. Relative to mid-2007, the decline in the housing wealth to income ratio will soon reach 15%, which would eventually lower the consumption/income ratio by about 2.5 percentage points. But real household incomes are themselves falling, under pressure from oil and food prices. A further 1% or more fall in consumption is likely from the direct and interaction effects of the contraction of credit availability. On top of all that comes the effect of the fall in the stock market. The estimated adjustment speed in the model is 0.35 per quarter, so it takes several quarters for the full effects to show up.
Tom Griffin

Analysis: Could it be a repeat performance for SNP? - Scotsman.com News - 0 views

  • There is another possible development which might alter the SNP's focus. Labour leaders at Holyrood are waiting for Jack McConnell's decision on when he intends to stand down as the MSP for Motherwell and Wishaw so he can go to Malawi as the UK's High Commissioner.The former first minister has said he won't make a decision until he gets confirmation of his appointment from the Foreign Office.If the Foreign Office endorses his appointment, his contract should come to him soon, which means he could stand down in the next couple of months, forcing a by-election for Holyrood on the same day as the Glenrothes poll.
Anthony Barnett

Labour launches its election pledges - speech by Gordon Brown | The Labour Party - 0 views

  • I believe the business of government should be more business-like – that the British people are the boss and like any employer they deserve to know about the performance of their team. And so I am proposing the following.Firstly, Sir Tim Berners Lee, the man most associated with the invention of the internet, is the government’s advisor on data openness and transparency all across the internet. In the months to come he will be ensuring that there is the maximum possible information available to the public at all times. This rapid extension of transparency will show in real time how government are delivering against our pledges.Secondly, I will set out a clear and public annual contract for each new Cabinet Minister, detailing what I expect them and their department to deliver to the British people, and that their continued appointment is dependent on their delivery just as it would be in a business or any other organisation. Thirdly, I will require the Cabinet Secretary to performance manage the Permanent Secretary of each department against their delivery of pledges and other priorities as set out in the letter of appointment.
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