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tony curzon price

RGE - Nouriel Roubini's Blog - 0 views

www.rgemonitor.com/roubini

economics risk

shared by tony curzon price on 18 Aug 07 - Cached
  • Economists distinguish between “Risk” and “Uncertainty”: the former can be priced by financial markets while the latter cannot. The distinction between the two was made by the famous economist Frank H. Knight in his seminal book, Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921). In brief, “Risk is present when future events occur with measurable probability” while “Uncertainty is present when the likelihood of future events is indefinite or incalculable”.    This distinction between risk and uncertainty helps to explain the recent market panic and turmoil. Today, the FT cites a market economist at Lehman who said: “We are in a minefield. No one knows where the mines are planted and we are just trying to stumble through it”. A few days ago another market participant put it this way: “It is not the corpses at the surface that are scary; it is the unknown corpses below the surface that may pop up unexpectedly”.   Unknown minefield; unexpected corpses: this is “uncertainty” rather than “risk”. Risk can be measured and priced because it depends on know distributions of events to which investors can assign probabilities. Uncertainty cannot be priced by markets because it relates to “fat tail” distributions and extreme events that cannot be easily predicted or measured.
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 18 Aug 07
       
      risk versus uncertainty - known unknowns versus unknown unknowns
  • A few days ago the CFO of Goldman Sachs justified the massive – 30% plus  - losses of the two Goldman Sachs hedge funds by arguing that these were unpredictable “25 standard deviation events” that should occur only once in a million years. The same thing was said by the LTCM “masters of the universe” when their highly leveraged hedge fund went belly up in 1998.
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 18 Aug 07
       
      so why do the statistical models get the tails of distribution so wrong? Are there also systematic effects that seek vulnerabilities in the system - viz £/ERM debacle, 1992
  • The proliferation of such products, as I have often noted before, carries many benefits for the financial system (most notably that they disperse risk across a much wider pool of investors). But this trend also carries at least one downside; it is adding to the opacity of the financial world. For although many corners of the structured credit universe are becoming more transparent, almost as soon as one chink of light emerges, another shadowy wave of activity emerges that is far more opaque.
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 18 Aug 07
       
      transparency versus risk-spreading trade-off?
tony curzon price

FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - Why the climate change wolf is so hard to kill off - 0 views

www.ft.com/...92-11dc-81c4-0000779fd2ac.html

bali climate columnists environment wolf

shared by tony curzon price on 05 Dec 07 - Cached
  • tony curzon price on 05 Dec 07
     
    Wolf - Scare + Solution is the trick fo Bali Two things are needed. The first is convincing evidence that the true risks are larger than many now suppose. Conceivable feedback effects might, for example, generate temperature increases of 20°C. That would be the end of the world as we know it. I cannot imagine a rational person who would not seek to eliminate even the possibility of such outcomes. But if we are to do that, we must also act very soon. The second requirement is to demonstrate that it is possible for us to thrive with low-carbon emissions. People in the northern hemisphere are not going to choose to be cold now, in order to prevent the world from becoming far too hot in future. China and India are not going to forgo development, either. These are realities that cannot be ignored.
tony curzon price

Performance-pay Perplexes: Financial Page: The New Yorker - 0 views

www.newyorker.com/...071112ta_talk_surowiecki

economics incentives

shared by tony curzon price on 14 Nov 07 - Cached
  • The havoc on Wall Street following the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market boils down to a simple truth: for years, lots of very smart people took lots of very foolish risks, betting borrowed billions on dubious mortgage derivatives, and eventually the odds caught up with them. But behind that simple truth is a more surprising one: the financial whizzes made bad decisions in part because that’s what they were paid to do. Not literally, of course. The way that hedge-fund managers and investment-bank C.E.O.s get paid is supposed to make them perform better for the investors they serve. Hedge-fund managers, for instance, typically are paid “2 and 20”: they get two per cent of total assets as a management fee, and they keep twenty per cent of their investment gains (above some agreed-upon benchmark). Letting hedge-fund managers keep a chunk of their winnings gives them an incentive to do well for their clients: in theory, they get rich only if their clients do.
  • tony curzon price on 14 Nov 07
     
    how performance contracts lead to high risk outcomes
Arabica Robusta

The time of the nation: negotiating global modernity | openDemocracy - 0 views

www.opendemocracy.net/...n-negotiating-global-modernity

neoliberalism globalization corporate-led foucault postmodernism social movements

shared by Arabica Robusta on 06 Jun 13 - No Cached
  • This depoliticised nature of the contemporary, seen as the conceptual and experiential embodiment of globalised capitalism, consequently poses problems far more significant than the mere survival of the nation-state.
  • Undoubtedly, since the demise of the postmodern epoch in the popular and academic imagination, the acceleration of technological forces in commerce and communication - that have paved the way for increased capital accumulation, exchange and crisis - have only heightened what Foucault and Jameson gesture towards as a lived sensation of pure simultaneity.
  • In opposition to the crisis of the political generated by the false amalgamation of coeval living experiences, we might propose the concept of modernity; a concept that the nation-state might be perfectly situated to help elucidate. On this model, I would argue, modernity can be seen as linked to a increased self-consciousness of a secular conception of one's individual finitude (in the form of mortality but also one's personal and societal limits), and the collective negotiation of this issue via a democratic politics.
  • ...10 more annotations...
  • Undoubtedly some of the impotence of movements such as Occupy can be attributed to the same false utopianism of a borderless world of cyber-communities and multinational companies, whose liberating effects have been a far cry from lived reality.
  • However, the heterotopian potential of the nation-state is vividly problematised through the realisation that twentieth or twenty-first century globalisation, divorced and independent of the influence of varying nation-states, is in fact a fallacy.
  • The question then becomes: how to conceive of the self-determining impulse of modernity - here encapsulated in nationalism - in the form of a  socio-political body that would be capable of maintaining that impulse through preserving the logic of democracy, and foster the requisite representative power in opposition to the power of transnational capitalism?
  • Borders are no longer simply dotted lines between nation-states, but often manifest themselves as ‘spontaneous’ entities such as security and health check zones all over major social and transit spaces, particularly in Europe and the West.
  • But how to conceive of a democratic entity powerful enough to appropriate the multiplicity and heterogeneity of globalised borders, that would also be able to withstand, what Balibar outlines as "the risk of being a mere arena for the unfettered domination of the private centres of power, which monopolise capital, communications and, perhaps also, arms"?
  • If this modern or modernist kernel is latent within the nation-state, then a significant reconfiguration is required since the language of nationhood and nationalism is certainly not one of contingent universality. Rather it is one of mythology: mythologies of ethnicity, of genealogy, of autochthony.
  • If we cannot do away with borders, then they must remain out of necessity. This necessity is discrimination. As Nairn rightly argues, "cultures...depend upon conflicts unsustainable without borders". Contrasts and distinctions are internal to any logic of identity, as Balibar similarly suggests; "the very representation of the border is the precondition for any definition". Once identity is philosophically understood as differential and not self-sufficient, globalisation raises a very modernist dilemma. How to make the very diversity (of choices, cultures, of the new) that modernisation and globalisation make possible, resist the paralysing repetitive logic of what Walter Benjamin terms the 'ever-same' (i.e. the temporality of the contemporary)?
  • The mythological language of nationalism asserts an enduring order, paradoxically so inasmuch as the precise origin or origins of any nationalist discourse remain a shrouded mystery. Myth, as structurally detached from historical or circumstantial origin, becomes a vehicle of interpretation and pathos, splitting into a potentially infinite number of manifestations in each 'national' subject (where each standardised narrative is appropriated as a personal one).
  • By arguing the case for global modernity in the form of the nation-state, however, one faces the immediate problem that modernity is almost unthinkable without capitalism (despite any such attempt to render modernity as a democratising force tied to a conception and experience of time).
  • Although the European tradition has established laws and institutions (including the nation-state) that remain significantly flawed, these still provide a democratic logic that guarantees the possibility of revision, of perfectibility, of the future. If the nation-state can embody a heterotopic space that permits identification through processes of willed negotiation and division, guaranteeing the possibility of the present to always be changed, then it might still serve as a tool for resistance.
Arabica Robusta

FT.com / Comment & analysis / Comment - Ethical finance standards must be restored - 0 views

www.ft.com/...fc-11dd-82ae-000077b07658.html

shared by Arabica Robusta on 09 May 08 - Cached
  • it should be apparent to all of us that sometimes senior executives, including the chairman, do not fully understand the businesses in which the company is involved. The financial instruments now causing such turmoil were not properly priced for their inherent risk and managers were unaware of the integral problems with these instruments. Much of this was made possible by the advanced technology used to devise and distribute these instruments.
    • Arabica Robusta
      Arabica Robusta on 10 May 08
       
      A good example of "strategic naivete". Financiers pretend they did not know that their structures of speculative greed would cause so much ruin. "Plausible deniability"
  • tony curzon price on 10 May 08
     
    Arabica - You wonder about intentions ... I am not sure that in looking at economies we need to think about intentions -- it is like looking at texts without thinking about authorial intentions. Outcomes, incentives, structural cause etc. all make sense without thinking about intentions. So does re-regulation.
tony curzon price

Who is doing the best reporting on the scary subprime story? - By Jack Shafer - Slate M... - 0 views

www.slate.com/rss

subprime

shared by tony curzon price on 07 Nov 07 - Cached
  • US household assets are $54,000bn. Liquid net worth (cash, mutual funds, bonds etc) is $27,500bn. Household debt is $13,000bn. In other words, the US household balance sheet is looking great: $54,000bn in assets ($27,500bn liquid) to cover $13,000bn in debt. Heck, we're under-leveraged as a country right now and should probably take on more debt. …But what about the subprime mess? Isn't that going to bring the net worth of the US to $0 or even negative? Right now the entire subprime market is about $800bn and let's give full credit to the traders and media and say 50 per cent of that is at risk. So $400bn. Will $400bn worth of homes go into foreclosure? Of course not. Defaults are good for nobody. Things will and are getting restructured.
  • Prime Time for SubprimeWho is doing the best reporting on this scary story?
  • tony curzon price on 07 Nov 07
     
    basic magnitudes ... where is the problem?
tony curzon price

New Orleans - Hurricane Katrina - Housing - Insurance - Natural Disasters and Storms - ... - 0 views

www.nytimes.com/...26neworleans-t.html

shared by tony curzon price on 29 Aug 07 - Cached
  • In Nature’s Casino
  • tony curzon price on 29 Aug 07
     
    risk pricing - real catastrophes
tony curzon price

Britain's future: Labour candidates respond | openDemocracy - 0 views

www.opendemocracy.net/ture_labour_candidates_respond

shared by tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07 - Cached
  • Britain’s future: Labour candidates’s view
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      Anthony - nice to see this was picked up by the observer - see: http://politics.guardian.co.uk/constitution/story/0,,2099735,00.html
    • Anthony Barnett
      Anthony Barnett on 10 Jun 07
       
      Yes, they wanted exclusive first right and I gave it them. What you can see in the paper edition but not on the web, it that they put the story at the top of the page on the right hand column. Positioning is much more than half the story in a newspaper. Its layout tells people what to read. Is it the same onthe web?
  • I am agnostic on the need for a written constitution, because of the power it hands to the judges.
  • so I let's have a national debate.
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      "let's have a national debate" ... this seems to be a today-program, motherhood-apple-pie mantra. what is this national debate? where is it to be had? on radio4?
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      see Cruddas below - getting a bit more specific on what a "national debate" might mean
    • Anthony Barnett
      Anthony Barnett on 10 Jun 07
       
      Benn's remark is rhetoric. Harmann above has thought about the need for mechanisms for ensuring public respect. The issue is a defining one. A wonderful constitution produced from Brown's inside pocket will be scorned as the gimmick of a 'Scot'. A less well worded one that emerges from a South African style process which people feel they 'own' could initiate a democratic process. What matters is not that it is written but how it is written!
  • ...4 more annotations...
  • It needs to be relevant to the man or woman in the street as a way of restoring trust in politics.
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      is the constitution being asked to do too much. the mistrust of politics has many sources; the real powerlessness of national governments over many of the areas they pretend to rule is one. there is a whole process of resetting expectations that a consittuional convention is unlikely to do. in fact, there is the risk that a constitution will raise hopes that _it_ cannot fulfill, and contribute to the mistrust.
  • Gordon Brown has spoken of the need to empower communities at a local level. Should the decentralization of power and money to local authorities form part of any new ‘constitutional settlement’?
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      not one of the candidates raises the BIG RED FLAG of localism: how do you continue to operate redistributive policies when income, wealth and opportunity differences are geographical?
  • evise but not block
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      I wonder what "revise but not block" actually means ... if you can revise a piece of legislation out of all shape, that is tantamount to blocking, no? and once the body is elected, does equal legitimacy not entail equal power?
  • We need a public debate
    • tony curzon price
      tony curzon price on 10 Jun 07
       
      another public debate ... see above. again - who with? how? and what is the outcome of a "public debate" worth looking at this article: http://www.opendemocracy.net/democracy-edemocracy/idcard_2537.jsp by sara forsstrom, about the Swedish database ... that goes back to the 17th century. Trustworthy states can have databases; so how do we make the state trustworthy? maybe exchanging access to our personal information with access to its private information?
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