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Translation of the Dec. 15, 2011 Nature Magazine article by former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and legislator Tomoyuki Taira — both members of  by EX-SKF (Certain expressions may be off, as article was translated English to Japanese and then back to English) [Emphasis Added]: [Subheading:] Possibility of Nuclear Explosion We need to answer the question of what caused the series of explosions at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant. Initially, they were reported as hydrogen explosions [...] [T]his is not conclusive. Other possibilities exist, and they are nuclear explosions and gas explosions other than hydrogen gas. [...]

From two observed facts, we believe a nuclear explosion is more likely. First, several transuranic elements have been detected several tens of kilometers away from the plant. Second, the steel trusses in the upper part of the reactor building of Reactor 3 are twisted as if they had been melted.

According to the reports by the Ministry of Education and Science, curium-242 (242Cm) has been detected at a location 3 kilometers from the plant, and plutonium-238 (238Pu) has been detected at a location 45 kilometers from the plant. [...] 242Cm’s half life is short (about 163 days), and the deposition of 238Pu around the plant is far greater than normal, leading the Ministry of Education and Science to conclude these were emitted from Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant. If that’s the case, pieces of broken spent nuclear fuel rods may have been scattered around the plant, and it is extremely dangerous.

From Yomiuri Shinbun (3:03AM JST 10/2/2011):

Details of an interim report by TEPCO's internal "Fukushima nuclear accident investigation committee" (headed by Vice President Masao Yamazaki) were revealed.

The committee reversed the company's position that there had been a hydrogen explosion in Reactor 2, and now concluded there was no such explosion. As to the tsunami that triggered the accident, the committee says "it was beyond expectations"; of the delay in initial response to the accident, the committee concludes "it couldn't be helped". Overall, the report looks full of self-justification. TEPCO plans to run the report with the verification committee made of outside experts before it publishes the report.

The Kan Administration set up a fact-finding commission in late May to figure out what went wrong at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant that led to the catastrophic accident, even if the accident is still ongoing as of August.The Kan Administration set up a fact-finding commission in late May to figure out what went wrong at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant that led to the catastrophic accident, even if the accident is still ongoing as of August. There were many critics who said "First thing first", which was to stop the emission of radioactive materials from the broken reactors and do whatever possible to reduce the amount of the contaminated water, and .. (list is endless). But the government, who is always eager to paint a positive picture that everything is according to schedule and going well, wanted the commission to "investigate" the accident to learn from the mistakes.

TEPCO was preoccupied with the condition of the reactor and the Containment Vessel, and didn't think of the risk of hydrogen explosion. "There was no one who could have predicted the explosion.

The Kan Administration set up a fact-finding commission in late May to figure out what went wrong at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant that led to the catastrophic accident, even if the accident is still ongoing as of August.The Kan Administration set up a fact-finding commission in late May to figure out what went wrong at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant that led to the catastrophic accident, even if the accident is still ongoing as of August. There were many critics who said "First thing first", which was to stop the emission of radioactive materials from the broken reactors and do whatever possible to reduce the amount of the contaminated water, and .. (list is endless). But the government, who is always eager to paint a positive picture that everything is according to schedule and going well, wanted the commission to "investigate" the accident to learn from the mistakes.

On May 4th 2011 the Potrblog team described the Fukushima 3 explosion and spent fuel rod ejections as the result of spent fuel cooling water becoming supersaturated with hydrogen

"It is also likely that the water in the fuel cooling pond was supersaturated with hydrogen. When the explosion occurred, the hydrogen in solution in the cooling pond water would have frothed up, burned, and deflagrated, sending the fuel rods out of the top of the holding pond. Visualize a bottle of Coke dropping; the resultant the carbon dioxide coming out of solution and shooting out of the end; now instead of carbon dioxide picture it as burning hydrogen shooting out"

Empirical lab research by the University of Tokyo and the Japanese Atomic Energy Agency now confirms the generation of hydrogen in such fuel pools. They attribute the explosion in Fukushima 4 to hydrogen generated in fuel pools. The POTRBLOG team suspects that unlike Fukushima 3, the Fukushima 4 explosion did not manifest a large BLACK mushroom cloud because the Fukushima 4 explosion triggered before the fuel pools could become supersaturated with Hydrogen and Oxygen.This early triggering, as compared to Fukushima 3, would have limited damage to the roof line of the Fukushima 4 building. For POTRBLOG's full analysis on the Unit 3 explosion see:Was the Fukushima Daiichi #3 EXPLOSION a detonation or deflagration?

The French nuclear safety body says an explosion rocked a nuclear plant in southern France, the Associated Press reports. French media report at least one death, but no radioactive leak.Update at 10:23 a.m. ET: The BBC quotes the plant's owner, national electricity provider EDF, as saying there was "an industrial accident, not a nuclear accident." Officials say there are no nuclear reactors at the site and there was no risk of a radioactive leak inside or outside the plant, the BBC reports.Update at 10:09 a.m. ET: The AP quotes officials from France's EDF power company, whose subsidiary operates the facility, as saying there was no nuclear reactor on the site and that no waste treated at the site of the explosion came from a reactor. Spokeswoman Carole Trivi says the cause of the blast was not immediately known and an investigation has opened.

Update at 8:28 a.m. ET: The Associated Press quotes the French nuclear safety body as saying one person was killed in the explosion of an oven at the Marcoule nuclear plant, but there have been no radioactive leaks.Update at 8:22 a.m. ET:Le Figaro says the site, which specializes in the treatment of radiological material, is operated by SOCODEI.Update at 8:10 a.m. ET: The Associated Press quotes Evangelia Petit of the Agency for Nuclear Safety as confirming the explosion but declining to provide further details. Officials in the Gard region also confirmed Monday's explosion but said they could not give any more information.

Update at 8:03 a.m. ET: Le Figaro quotes a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Commission as saying that "right now" there has been no radioactive leak to the outside.

There are foreign nuclear experts who have said the explosion in Reactor 3 on March 14 at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant was a nuclear explosion. But this Japanese engineer and whistleblower at JNES (Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization) Setsuo Fujiwara says there were two explosions at Reactor 3: a hydrogen explosion, and a nuclear explosion at the Spent Fuel Pool.The following is my best-effort translation of the interview Fujiwara did with the SPA magazine, without detailed technical knowledge of nuclear physics, subject to revision.

AP: A major power outage knocked out electricity for up to 5 million people… KESQ: Callers to News Channel 3 reported a loss of power hitting around 3:45 p.m. [...] The company released the following statement: “Edison is working with the California Independent System Operator to determine grid factors that caused the two San Onofre units to trip offline as designed at approximately 3:38 p.m. Pacific (time).

San Diego Union Tribune: The most extensive power outage in California history… AP: Mike Niggli, chief operating officer of San Diego Gas & Electric Co., ruled out terrorism but said the cause was unclear. “To my knowledge this is the first time we’ve lost an entire system,” he said.

KESQ: Some callers to News Channel 3′s newsroom reported hearing a loud explosion near North Shore at the Salton Sea shortly before the electric interruption. KGO: Viewers of ABC affiliate KESQ in Palm Springs, Calif., have called in to say they heard a massive explosion at a substation in Coachella. Those reports could not be immediately confirmed. The loss of power led to a shutdown of two reactors at the San Onofre nuclear power plant.

Mainichi has a report featuring radiochemical expert Michiaki Furukawa, professor emeritus at Nagoya University:

He says that some reports about plutonium have been misleading. “When the disaster first happened, there were media reports saying ‘plutonium won’t make it far because it’s a large and heavy element,’ but no one who’s done serious research in environmental radioactivity would say such a thing.” “At the very least, plutonium-238 had to have come from the explosions (at the plant). The plutonium that had heated up inside the reactors turned into fine particles when it came in contact with water, and was dispersed with the water vapor released in the explosions. Yet, Furukawa says, “Since the plutonium takes the form of particles — unlike the gaseous radioactive iodine — it probably didn’t fly 100 kilometers.”

Some previous reports, however, appear to refute Furakawa’s claim: Takashi: Plutonium evaporated and spread around as gas after Fukushima meltdowns "Very high concentrations" of hot particles in Pacific NW during April, May -- Includes plutonium and americium (AUDIO) Nuclear expert says Americium has been found in New England -- Element even heavier than Uranium (VIDEO) Neutron ray measured in Tokyo -- Uranium-235 found in Chiba -- Can't be detected by most geiger counters (PHOTO & VIDEO) Uranium-234 detected in Hawaii, Southern California, and Seattle Also in the Mainichi article, Hiroshi Ishihara, who heads the Medical Treatment for the High Dose Exposure Research Group at the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) in Chiba, speaks about plutonium:]

Currently,at least 3 reactors are having melt out. Even Mr.Koide from Kyoyo University,who has been the most insightful advisory of us says, there is no major risk of explosion as long as the fuel rods are underground. Tepco announced they started building the impermeable wall on the sea side of reactor 1~4 on 10/28/2011. They say it takes 2 years to build. However,in Chernobyl,the biggest concern was the explosion underground after melt out. They put tons of human robots to settle it down.

They assumed if melted fuel touches the underground water vein,it would cause hydrovolcanic explosion so the entire area of Europe would be uninhabited. Soviet union was also afraid of the contamination of river. They ended up putting 800,000 people to settle it down and they suffer from severe health damage. In Japan,everything is concealed and nobody seems concerned about hydrovolcanic explosion and water contamination though it is likely to be going on already. Though Fukushima had container vessel,now that all of them were destroyed,the situation is similar to Chernobyl.

Roughly estimating,Chernobyl needed 800,000 people. In Fukushima,reactor 1~6 are in crisis,which means 800,000×6=4,800,000 people are needed to dedicate their lives. The video below is very insightful. It explains what Soviet did to avoid hydrovolcanic explosion. 600 pilots died. 10,000 coal miners were put (all in 20s or 30s) into digging the hole under the reactor,and at least 2500 of them died before 40s.

Whistleblower pays price for voicing nuke safety concerns, MSNBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show, Dec. 15, 2011: Dr. Walter Tamosaitis, Research & Technology Manager for the Waste Treatment Plant processing Hanford’s radioactive waste Walt Tamosaitis, nuclear waste whistleblower and Tom Carpenter, attorney and executive director of the non-profit group Hanford Challenge, talks with Rachel Maddow about safety concerns at the site and the penalties he has suffered as a consequence of speaking about his concerns.

Transcript Excerpts At ~7:00 in MADDOW: Dr. Tamosaitis, can you describe your safety concerns at Hanford [nuclear waste facility in Washington] for the non-nuclear engineers among us? TAMOSAITIS: Yes, ma`am. The major concern is poor mixing in the vessels, the tanks that process the hazardous nuclear waste. And if you have poor mixing in the tank, you can build up solids, the solids can trap hydrogen gas. You can have solids build up on the bottom of the tank which can lead to a criticality. So, trapping a hydrogen gas can lead to a fire or an explosion. And the solids buildup could lead to a criticality.

At ~9:45 in MADDOW: In terms of — Dr. Tamosaitis, let me go back to you. In terms of your safety concerns and, again, speaking to a public that may not be, including myself, all that familiar with the processes you`re describing there, what is the greatest risk that you think is possible here based on corners that you`ve seen cut? Are we looking at something that could be more than the kind of leaks that Hanford has already experienced? Are we talking about something that could be a larger release of radioactive material? TAMOSAITIS: Yes, ma`am. Yes, Rachel, we are. If we have poor mixing, we could trap hydrogen gas, we could end up with a fire or explosion, as we saw on the TV at Fukushima in Japan.

A recent headline on the six crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Reactors read: “40 microSv/h detected from radioactive gravel site used for schools, homes — Measured one meter above source,” Jan 21, 2012. I asked Physicist Dr. Paolo Scampa, PhD. of the AIPRI Blog fame, what this translates to for everyday people, their kids and families. The Fukushima nuclear tragedy is still going on after 335 days as of Wed, Feb 08, 2012 affecting the entire world.

US Imperial Unit Measurements Dr. Scampa stated

“An absorbed dose of 40 microSievert/hour at one Meter or about 39 inches above the ground, means a radioactive deposit creating an average of 12,330,000.00 Cesium 137 nuclear explosions per second (Becquerels) for every 39 inches square over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Further, the radiation is spreading rapidly through the air. The Earth’s  surface is covered with many deadly radioactive isotopes from the six crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Reactors.”  “This is 22 times more Radiation than the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) decreed for the Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Disaster Exclusion Zone when they said everyone had to leave.

While the 2011 earthquake and worries surrounding Fukushima have brought the threat of radioactivity back into the public consciousness, many people still don't realize that radioactive contamination is a worldwide danger. Radionuclides are in the top six toxic threats as listed in the 2010 report by The Blacksmith Institute, an NGO dedicated to tackling pollution. You might be surprised by the locations of some of the world’s most radioactive places — and thus the number of people living in fear of the effects radiation could have on them and their children.

10. Hanford, USA

The Hanford Site, in Washington, was an integral part of the US atomic bomb project, manufacturing plutonium for the first nuclear bomb and "Fat Man," used at Nagasaki. As the Cold War waged on, it ramped up production, supplying plutonium for most of America's 60,000 nuclear weapons. Although decommissioned, it still holds two thirds of the volume of the country’s high-level radioactive waste — about 53 million gallons of liquid waste, 25 million cubic feet of solid waste and 200 square miles of contaminated groundwater underneath the area, making it the most contaminated site in the US. The environmental devastation of this area makes it clear that the threat of radioactivity is not simply something that will arrive in a missile attack, but could be lurking in the heart of your own country.

and no need to worry, TEPCO will take care of it.TEPCO also says since there is no oxygen in the pipe that leads to the Reactor 1 Containment Vessel, there is NO DANGER of explosion.(Uh huh. "There is no danger of explosion" was what they said to the fire department and the Self Defense Force right before Reactor 1 blew up, and then before Reactor 3 blew up.)

From Yomiuri Shinbun (9/28/2011):

TEPCO announced on September 28 that the concentration of hydrogen gas in the pipe that leads to the Containment Vessel of Reactor 1 at Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant was 63%.

19:05 9/29/2011(JST) ,there was an earthquake near Fukushima plants. Scale 5+ M5.6 Now there are some aftershocks still.

Strange points 1) Though it was a major earthquake,it was scale 5+ only around Fukushima nuc plants. 2) According to Japan Meteorological Agency,the epicenter was “very shallow”.They can’t even specify how deep it was. 3) Though Fukushima city is in the same prefecture,it was only scale 1 there. 4) A lot of the people heard loud brontide,which is rare for normal earthquake.

Unconfirmed info (info from Twitter) 1) The epicenter is right under Fukushima plants. 2) From the live streaming video,sometimes you see flash from the buildings. 3) From the live streaming video,steam is coming up from around reactor 4.

The top civilian nuclear disasters, ranked by International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. Worst Civilian Nuclear Disasters 1. Chernobyl, Soviet Union (now Ukraine) April 26, 1986 INES Rating: 7 (major impact on people and environment)

The worst nuclear disaster of all time resulted from a test of the reactor’s systems. A power surge while the safety systems were shut down resulted in the dreaded nuclear meltdown. Fuel elements ruptured and a violent explosion rocked the facility. Fuel rods meted and the graphite covering the reactor burned. Authorities reported that 56 have died as a direct result of the disaster—47 plant workers and nine children who died of thyroid disease. However, given the Soviet Union’s tendency to cover up unfavorable information, that number likely is low.  International Atomic Energy Agency reports estimate that the death toll may ultimately be as high as 4,000. The World Health Organization claims that it’s as high as 9,000. In addition to the deaths, 200,000 people had to be permanently relocated after the disaster. The area remains unsuitable for human habitation. 2. Fukushima, Japan March 11, 2011 INES Rating: 7 (major impact on people and environment) Following a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami, Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power facility suffered a series of ongoing equipment failures accompanied by the release of nuclear material into the air. The death toll for this currently is at two but is expected to rise and as of April 2011, the crisis still ongoing. A 12 mile evacuation area has been established around the plant.

3. Kyshtym, Soviet Union Sept. 29, 1957 INES Rating: 6 (serious impact on people and environment) Poor construction is blamed for the September 1957 failure of this nuclear plant. Although there was no meltdown or nuclear explosion, a radioactive cloud escaped from the plant and spread for hundreds of miles. Soviet reports say that 10,000 people were evacuated, and 200 deaths were cause by cancer.

Architect of Fukushima Daiichi Reactor 3, Uehara Haruo, the former president of Saga University had an interview on 11/17/2011. In this interview, he admitted Tepco’s explanation does not make sense, and that the China syndrome is inevitable. He stated that considering 8 months have passed since 311 without any improvement, it is inevitable that melted fuel went out of the container vessel and sank underground, which is called China syndrome.

He added, if fuel has reaches a underground water vein, it will cause contamination of underground water, soil contamination and sea contamination. Moreover, if the underground water vein keeps being heated for long time, a massive hydrovolcanic explosion will be caused. He also warned radioactive debris is spreading in Pacific Ocean. Tons of the debris has reached the Marshall Islands as of 11/15/2011.