Group items tagged or - NYU Probability Summer 2009

Edge: THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS By Nassim Nicholas Taleb - 0 views

www.edge.org/...taleb08_index.html

statistics economics finance risk science probability philosophy knowledge crisis

shared by Sam V on 14 Jul 09 - Cached

Sam V on 14 Jul 09

An opinionated essay about 'domains' or applications of probability and knowledge (or lack thereof) under uncertainty. How to avoid being a sucker.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">An opinionated essay about 'domains' or applications of probability and knowledge (or lack thereof) under uncertainty. How to avoid being a sucker.</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 15 Jul 09

Don't forget: Nassim Taleb is on the NYU faculty!

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Don't forget: Nassim Taleb is on the NYU faculty!</div>

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Baseball Research Veers Into Left Field - WSJ.com - 0 views

online.wsj.com/...4271104574290600207026822.html

v63.0233.2009Su probability news article interesting

shared by Matthew Leingang on 28 Jul 09 - Cached

Matthew Leingang on 28 Jul 09

When baseball dubbed shortstop Harold Reese "Pee Wee" and first basemen Fred Merkle "Bonehead," they probably weren't trying to lengthen the players' lives. But according to researchers at Wayne State University, major-league players who have nicknames live 2½ years longer, on average, than those without them. The nickname findings are part of the wide-ranging and often arcane academic research that deals with the national pastime. In another study, we learn that players whose first or last name begins with "K" strike out more than those without "K" initials. And in case you were wondering, research finds Democrats support the designated-hitter rule more than Republicans.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner"> When baseball dubbed shortstop Harold Reese "Pee Wee" and first basemen Fred Merkle "Bonehead," they probably weren't trying to lengthen the players' lives. But according to researchers at Wayne State University, major-league players who have nicknames live 2½ years longer, on average, than those without them. The nickname findings are part of the wide-ranging and often arcane academic research that deals with the national pastime. In another study, we learn that players whose first or last name begins with "K" strike out more than those without "K" initials. And in case you were wondering, research finds Democrats support the designated-hitter rule more than Republicans. </div>

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Sam V on 28 Jul 09

the initial K effect really gets me, probably because the human tendency to try and explain it does not work. The original paper is here and contains an additional study which found that "students whose names began with 'C' or 'D' earned lower GPAs than students whose names began with 'A' or 'B.'" http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=946249 Here is some criticism of the study. http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2007/11/k-study-for-real_26.html http://skepstat.blogspot.com/2007/12/why-i-am-javascript-master.html

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">the initial K effect really gets me, probably because the human tendency to try and explain it does not work. The original paper is here and contains an additional study which found that "students whose names began with 'C' or 'D' earned lower GPAs than students whose names began with 'A' or 'B.'" <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=946249" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=946249</a> Here is some criticism of the study. <a href="http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2007/11/k-study-for-real_26.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2007/11/k-study-for-real_26.html</a> <a href="http://skepstat.blogspot.com/2007/12/why-i-am-javascript-master.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://skepstat.blogspot.com/2007/12/why-i-am-javascript-master.html</a></div>

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Probability theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

en.wikipedia.org/...Probability_theory

shared by bouchra alami on 20 Jul 09 - Cached

Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena.[1] The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion. Although an individual coin toss or the roll of a die is a random event, if repeated many times the sequence of random events will exhibit certain statistical patterns, which can be studied and predicted. Two representative mathematical results describing such patterns are the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. As a mathematical foundation for statistics, probability theory is essential to many human activities that involve quantitative analysis of large sets of data. Methods of probability theory also apply to descriptions of complex systems given only partial knowledge of their state, as in statistical mechanics. A great discovery of twentieth century physics was the probabilistic nature of physical phenomena at atomic scales, described in quantum mechanics.
- bouchra alami on 20 Jul 09
  
  This is my first try with taging in Diigo. Important to know anyway :)
  
  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">This is my first try with taging in Diigo. Important to know anyway :)</div>
  
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foundation
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Bayesian spam filtering - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

en.wikipedia.org/...Bayesian_spam_filtering

v63.0233.2009Su probability bayesian bayes spam article

shared by Matthew Leingang on 09 Jul 09 - Cached

Marc Tourangeau liked it

Matthew Leingang on 09 Jul 09

How Bayes's Theorem can be used to decide if mail is spam or not.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">How Bayes's Theorem can be used to decide if mail is spam or not.</div>

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Marc Tourangeau on 21 Jul 09

Very cool. Now that we see that mail filter software "adapts" to the user, we can address the problem in class of what would happen if a doctor who deals with prostate issues uses a filter and words such as viagra prop up when the email is not actually spam.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Very cool. Now that we see that mail filter software "adapts" to the user, we can address the problem in class of what would happen if a doctor who deals with prostate issues uses a filter and words such as viagra prop up when the email is not actually spam.</div>

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Interactivate: Experimental Probability - 0 views

www.shodor.org/...expprobability

v63.0233.2009su interactivate probability

shared by victoria elizabeth shea on 14 Jul 09 - Cached

victoria elizabeth shea on 14 Jul 09

Experiment with experimental probability using a fixed size section spinner, a variable section spinner, 2 regular 6-sided number cubes or design your own number cubes. Appropriate for elementary grades..

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Experiment with experimental probability using a fixed size section spinner, a variable section spinner, 2 regular 6-sided number cubes or design your own number cubes. Appropriate for elementary grades..</div>

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Pat's King of Steaks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

en.wikipedia.org/...Pat%27s_King_of_Steaks

v63.0233.2009Su combinatorics cheesesteak

shared by Matthew Leingang on 16 Jun 09 - Cached

Matthew Leingang on 16 Jun 09

How many ways can you order a cheesesteak if you can get it with or without onions and with provolone cheese, American cheese, or Cheez Whiz?

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">How many ways can you order a cheesesteak if you can get it with or without onions and with provolone cheese, American cheese, or Cheez Whiz?</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 16 Jun 09

A famous purveyor of the Philadelphia "Cheesesteak" sandwich

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">A famous purveyor of the Philadelphia "Cheesesteak" sandwich</div>

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Boy or Girl paradox - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

en.wikipedia.org/...Boy_or_Girl_paradox

v63.0233.2009Su Boy or Girl paradox

shared by renyong zhang on 24 Jul 09 - Cached

renyong zhang on 24 Jul 09

whats is the truth for the Question 2?

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">whats is the truth for the Question 2?</div>

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Some Really Hard Probability Problems - 0 views

ocw.mit.edu/...prob.pdf

shared by Matthew Leingang on 21 Jul 09 - No Cached

Marc Tourangeau on 21 Jul 09

I pulled this up from the MIT Open CourseWare page under their Problem Solving class. I think they use problems of this caliber to prepare for the Putnam exam.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">I pulled this up from the MIT Open CourseWare page under their Problem Solving class. I think they use problems of this caliber to prepare for the Putnam exam.</div>

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...2 more comments...
Sam V on 21 Jul 09

I wonder if we as a class could take on this one... 3. An unfair coin (probability p of showing heads) is tossed n times. What is the probability that the number of heads will be even?

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">I wonder if we as a class could take on this one... 3. An unfair coin (probability p of showing heads) is tossed n times. What is the probability that the number of heads will be even?</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 21 Jul 09

That's a great idea. First, try it for specific values of n. If n=1, then the number of heads is even if it's 0, so P(even) = 1-p. If n=2, you could have 0 or 2 heads, so P(even) = (1-p)^2 +p^2 = 1-2p. Obviously there's going to be some kind of binomial identity, but what?

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">That's a great idea. First, try it for specific values of n. If n=1, then the number of heads is even if it's 0, so P(even) = 1-p. If n=2, you could have 0 or 2 heads, so P(even) = (1-p)^2 +p^2 = 1-2p. Obviously there's going to be some kind of binomial identity, but what?</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 22 Jul 09

OK, I now know two ways to solve this. The first way was along the lines you described in the break to me, Sam. It makes more sense than I originally thought, and with your Discrete Math knowhow you might be able to solve it. There's also a clever way, which I admit I didn't figure out until I solved it the other way.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">OK, I now know two ways to solve this. The first way was along the lines you described in the break to me, Sam. It makes more sense than I originally thought, and with your Discrete Math knowhow you might be able to solve it. There's also a clever way, which I admit I didn't figure out until I solved it the other way.</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 22 Jul 09

That's a great list of problems btw!

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">That's a great list of problems btw!</div>

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Gamma function - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - 0 views

en.wikipedia.org/...Gamma_function

Gamma function factorial combinatorics V63.0233.2009SU

shared by Truman Deeb on 20 Jul 09 - Cached

Truman Deeb on 20 Jul 09

In case you wanted to know a more precise way to deal with all of the factorials we've been playing around with.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">In case you wanted to know a more precise way to deal with all of the factorials we've been playing around with.</div>

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Marc Tourangeau on 21 Jul 09

If you like Erdos, you should take Algebra with Joel Spencer. He collaborated with Erdos for 40 or more publications I think.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">If you like Erdos, you should take Algebra with Joel Spencer. He collaborated with Erdos for 40 or more publications I think.</div>

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Lifelong debunker takes on arbiter of neutral choices - 0 views

news.stanford.edu/...diaconis-69.html

shared by Matthew Leingang on 16 Jul 09 - Cached

A decade later, in 2002, a large manufacturer of card-shuffling machines for casinos summoned Diaconis to determine whether their new automated shufflers truly randomized the deck. (They didn't.)
- Matthew Leingang on 20 Jul 09
  
  I saw him talk about this. It was fascinating, especially when you consider that the problem is computationally very hard. The number of "shuffles" (permutations of a 52-card deck) exceeds the number of atoms in our galaxy, so it's impossible to build a computer with that much memory.
  
  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">I saw him talk about this. It was fascinating, especially when you consider that the problem is computationally very hard. The number of "shuffles" (permutations of a 52-card deck) exceeds the number of atoms in our galaxy, so it's impossible to build a computer with that much memory.</div>
  
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Sam V on 16 Jul 09

A biography about magician-turned-mathematician (probabilist) Persi Diaconis as well as a look at his experiments to understand the bias of a coin flip.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">A biography about magician-turned-mathematician (probabilist) Persi Diaconis as well as a look at his experiments to understand the bias of a coin flip.</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 20 Jul 09

Great article. Everything I've been saying about Diaconis I learned through oral tradition. It's good to know I was pretty much right on.

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Great article. Everything I've been saying about Diaconis I learned through oral tradition. It's good to know I was pretty much right on.</div>

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Sam V on 21 Jul 09

Funny, after reading the article I concluded that you must've either read this article or a similar biographical sketch. Diaconis must be some legend! One of my favorite parts was that he was a bit 'rough' at one point. Gives the rest of us some hope!

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Funny, after reading the article I concluded that you must've either read this article or a similar biographical sketch. Diaconis must be some legend! One of my favorite parts was that he was a bit 'rough' at one point. Gives the rest of us some hope!</div>

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Baye's Theorem - 0 views

www.zweigmedia.com/...frames6_6.html

v63.0233.2009Su

shared by Afiya Cupid on 14 Jul 09 - Cached

Matthew Leingang liked it

Afiya Cupid on 14 Jul 09

Baye's Theorem and Appplication

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Baye's Theorem and Appplication</div>

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Matthew Leingang on 15 Jul 09

Let's remember: the guy's name was Bayes. That means it's either Bayes's Theorem or Bayes' Theorem, but not Baye's Theorem. :))) Good article though!

<div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Let's remember: the guy's name was Bayes. That means it's either Bayes's Theorem or Bayes' Theorem, but not Baye's Theorem. :))) Good article though!</div>

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ACS :: Lifetime Probability of Developing or Dying From Cancer - 0 views

www.cancer.org/...oping_or_Dying_From_Cancer.asp