Plus Maths Magazine: Feature Article. A look at what might have happened to a certain large bank -the probabilities of default turned out to be a lot higher than expected!
I have no Erdos number as I have not published any joint papers. Also, I'm offended with the slander against Kevin Bacon as a "not too well known American actor." Have you ever heard of Footloose?
I pulled this up from the MIT Open CourseWare page under their Problem Solving class. I think they use problems of this caliber to prepare for the Putnam exam.
I wonder if we as a class could take on this one...
3. An unfair coin (probability p of showing heads) is tossed n times. What
is the probability that the number of heads will be even?
That's a great idea. First, try it for specific values of n. If n=1, then the number of heads is even if it's 0, so P(even) = 1-p. If n=2, you could have 0 or 2 heads, so P(even) = (1-p)^2 +p^2 = 1-2p. Obviously there's going to be some kind of binomial identity, but what?
OK, I now know two ways to solve this. The first way was along the lines you described in the break to me, Sam. It makes more sense than I originally thought, and with your Discrete Math knowhow you might be able to solve it.
There's also a clever way, which I admit I didn't figure out until I solved it the other way.
Interesting point. I think there's a lot of math behind designing any popular game involving chance. For instance, legend has it the game High-Ho Cherry-O! was engineered to make the expected game length about equal to the attention span of the children playing it. Here you have a case of designers not understanding the game they were developing. Casino games seem simple enough to attract interest (and pay often enough to keep it) but still manage to benefit the house.
The rising stature of statisticians, who can earn $125,000 at top companies in their first year after getting a doctorate, is a byproduct of the recent explosion of digital data. In field after field, computing and the Web are creating new realms of data to explore - sensor signals, surveillance tapes, social network chatter, public records and more. And the digital data surge only promises to accelerate, rising fivefold by 2012, according to a projection by IDC, a research firm.
Visual proofs of some series. Not 100% related to probability but neat nonetheless. For example, check out the illustration of 1 + 2 + 3 + ... + n = n * (n+1) / 2