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anonymous

Russia: V-E Day and a Declaration of Intent - 0 views

  • But the glorious past behind the holiday started to return in 2005. Then-Russian President Vladimir Putin was in power, and his overall objective was to return Russia to its status as a “great power.” Putin’s goals were to first consolidate Russia internally and then push the country back out to its more comfortable Soviet-era borders — whether formally or informally.
anonymous

China: The Shaky Structure of an Economic 'Miracle' - 0 views

  • A serious defect of East Asia’s export economic model is that it discourages the development of household consumption as a source of economic growth. Families are encouraged to save rather than spend, which depresses their consumption. At a certain point, leading East Asian economies have undergone transitions during which policies were adjusted to stabilize or boost consumption while allowing fixed investment to taper off, thereby creating more balanced economies. China, however, has yet to do so, and thus remains dangerously reliant on exports and investment.
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    By StratFor on April 26, 2010.
anonymous

U.K.: Electoral Uncertainty Looms - 0 views

  • Britons go to the polls May 6 to cast their votes in what is expected to be one of the closest elections in decades. While polls indicate the conservatives are favored over the ruling Labour Party and the insurgent Liberal Democrats, it is possible that a hung parliament or a weak coalition government could take office, coming at a time when Britain desperately needs strong leadership out of its economic doldrums.
  • The close electoral race has plunged the United Kingdom into a national debate about the possibility that no party will have an absolute majority with which to form a government, a scenario referred to as a “hung parliament.”
  • The electoral system employed in the United Kingdom is referred to as “first-past-the-post” — essentially a winner-takes-all system in which electoral districts elect individual members of parliament.
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  • The lack of experience governing with hung parliaments in the United Kingdom’s political culture — not to mention the non-existence of inter-party dialogue necessary for coalition-formation to take place — only heightens the sense of uncertainty around the outcome for the election.
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    By Stratfor on May 6, 2010.
anonymous

U.S.: The Ramifications of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill - 0 views

  • BP executives reportedly told the U.S. Congress on May 4 that while the oil is officially estimated to be gushing out at 5,000 barrels per day (bpd) the rate could be as high as 60,000 bpd. In other words, the problem could be far greater and more pressing than previously thought.
  • Offshore oil production accounts for about one third of global oil production, and the demand for it will not disappear. However, the United States already strictly regulates offshore drilling, and regulations will increase as a result of the Deepwater Horizon incident.
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    By StratFor on May 6, 2010.
anonymous

Russia, Turkey: A Grand Energy Bargain? - 0 views

  • Since Russia and Turkey are both resurgent powers in the region, the energy issue can turn quite thorny at times, particularly as the West is leaning on Turkey to keep its distance from Moscow. But Russia and Turkey are not looking for an energy brawl at the moment. Tensions exist between these historic rivals, but the current geopolitical environment is pushing the two sides to work with — instead of against — each other.
anonymous

France: Constitutional Economic Reform? - 0 views

  • France is attempting to distance itself from the eurozone’s profligate spenders and illustrate that it belongs with other northern European governments with responsible fiscal policies
anonymous

Analogy Overstretch - 0 views

  • Unless you're making an argument about a group of great powers locked in an unstable system of bipolar military alliances with contradictory and ill-defined security commitments to one another, then you're probably doing violence to a decent analysis of whatever the current situation is.
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    By Matt Eckel at Foreign Policy Watch on May 12, 2010.
anonymous

Iran Nuclear Swap Deal Signed - Original Document - 0 views

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    Final document as obtained by CNNTurk from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
anonymous

Greece: Defense Spending and the Financial Crisis - 0 views

  • the modern Greek state owes its independence to the support of the United Kingdom, which sought to use Greece as a means to balance the unraveling Ottoman Turkey with the rise of Imperial Russia in the early 19th century.
  • With the disappearance of regional power Yugoslavia and the Soviet superpower, however, such support has ended.
  • Greece spends more on defense as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) than any other EU member including the United Kingdom, which maintains a global defense reach, and Poland, which sees itself as needing to be ready to hold out against the vastly superior Russian army.
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    From May 17, 2010.
anonymous

Japan: A Novice Government's Political Dilemma - 0 views

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    May 20, 2010
anonymous

A Chinese Flight Test and U.S. Demands - 0 views

  • Pictures have flowed out of cyberspace of what appears to be the first test flight of a fifth-generation combat fighter prototype, the so-called Chengdu J-20, which has some outward appearances of stealth shaping and characteristics.
  • This anecdote has been widely reported as another example of the rising prominence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), whose leaders are presumed to have planned and held the flight test on the occasion of Gates’ visit without Hu’s prior knowledge — a brazen act of insubordination.
  • There is support for the theory that a crack is opening between China’s military and civilian leaders.
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  • it is extremely difficult to believe that Hu, not only China’s president but also its chief military official, was shrouded in a cloud of unknowing.
  • China probably unveiled the advanced fighter during Gates’ visit to emphasize that it is a force to be reckoned with.
  • China’s undeniable advances in the military sphere, as in other spheres, have prompted the United States to begin holding it to higher standards, which may not be what Beijing wants.
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    "U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the second day of his trip to China. Gates' trip has served as a public display of renewed military communication between the two countries, as well as a forerunner to Hu's highly anticipated trip to Washington from Jan. 18-21."
anonymous

The Strategy Behind the Military's Fourth Communique - 0 views

  • In other words, the military — and only the military — will be the one to prioritize the state’s agenda, which is likely to differ greatly from the order of priorities outlined by the opposition. The military council then vaguely expresses its “commitment” to the provisions of its previous statements (to meet the demands of the people) and then orders Egyptian citizens to return to work (and thus clear the streets).
  • the council is “committing the Egyptian Arab Republic to all regional and international obligations and treaties.” The military is specifically reassuring Israel and the United States that the 1978 peace accord will remain intact.
  • The military is being strategically vague in its promises to the people, yet direct in clearly articulating its demands to the people. The opposition’s reaction is thus critical to watch in the days ahead. If political forces begin to criticize the military for backtracking on promises and attempt to continue street demonstrations until their demands are met, they will not be met with the same tolerance the military exhibited while Muabrak was clinging onto power.
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    "Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, now the caretakers of the state, issued its fourth communique Feb. 12. The language of the statement is deliberately vague enough to keep the opposition guessing, but, in line with STRATFOR's prediction, the military's interest in preserving the regime is overriding the opposition's demands for dismantling the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), revising the Constitution and, most importantly, holding fresh parliamentary elections in a timely manner."
anonymous

Mubarak Transfers Some Powers - 0 views

  • Mubarak may still be attempting to hang onto power, but that does not mean the military does not have a plan. The military likely has anticipated the opposition’s complete rejection of Mubarak’s minor concessions. Thus, the coming hours will tell whether this is the reaction that the army is waiting for to legitimize their intervention, for if the military does not act, the next likely scenario is for the demonstrations to spiral out of control.
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    "Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak delivered a speech the evening of Feb. 10 in which he announced that, while he would not resign, he would transfer some of his powers to Vice President Omar Suleiman. Mubarak also said he would repeal a three-decade-long state of emergency once the current security situation stabilizes. Once again, the embattled Egyptian president insisted on upholding his duty to the constitution in safeguarding the country until he can peacefully transfer the presidency through elections."
anonymous

Mubarak Stepping Down? - 0 views

  • Egyptian Prime Minister and former air force chief Ahmed Shafiq announced to BBC Arabic that discussions are under way for Mubarak to step down.
  • Gen. Hassan al-Roueini, the military commander for the Cairo area, reportedly told protesters in Tahrir Square, “All your demands will be met today.”
  • Then, Shafiq reportedly made a statement saying that Mubarak will in fact stay in his post as president and that Mubarak has not made a decision to step down.
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  • Curiously, no statements from Suleiman have been issued Feb. 10, even though Suleiman assumed de facto leadership of the regime Jan. 29.
  • The details are still extremely murky, but based on the conflicting statements thus far and rumors that have been circulating over the past several days of the army’s distrust of Suleiman as a successor to Mubarak, there appears to be a struggle under way within the regime elite, specifically between serving officers and former officers who have maintained close ties with Mubarak, such as Shafiq and Suleiman. The situation remains in flux, but the army appears ready to intervene in order to usher Mubarak out.
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    "Conflicting statements out of Cairo on Feb. 10 suggest that a struggle is under way between the Egyptian military and civilian elite over Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's political exit."
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