The Law of Accelerating Returns - 0 views
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Can the pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with?
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This, then, is the Singularity. The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
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Needless to say, the Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic,
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Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023. We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059.
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Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity).
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Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities.
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And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise.