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Home/ Investment & Personal Finance/ Cheong Hong Yuan: Unveiling the Strategy Investment in the Market under the Expectation of "Dovish" Shift

Cheong Hong Yuan: Unveiling the Strategy Investment in the Market under the Expectation of "Dovish" Shift - 1 views

started by anonymous on 09 Nov 23
  • anonymous
    In the eyes of Cheong Hong Yuan, the market seems to always be repeating the anticipation of the change in the Fed's policy. From the perspective of a professional stock market analyst, the current market's bet on the Fed's "dovish" shift is in its seventh round within this tightening cycle, and whether this bet will once again become a "false dawn" has become the focus of investors' attention. According to Henry Allen, a macro strategist at Deutsche Bank, there is a clear deviation between the bond market's expectations and the forecasts of Fed officials, which may imply a difference in frequency between market sentiment and policy makers.

    Cheong Hong Yuan believes that despite Fed Chairman Powell's suggestion that this round of rate hikes is nearing its end, the market still needs to maintain a cautious attitude towards this signal. After all, prior to this, the market has six times overly optimistically anticipated a dovish turn by the central bank, only to end in disappointment. In this rate hike cycle, although the rapid decline in US bond yields and the rise in US stocks have ignited investors' optimism in the short term, whether this is sustainable remains unknown.

    Based on the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy," Cheong Hong Yuan believes that this strategy combination should be an important tool for investors to navigate the current market. The core of this strategy lies in tracking stocks that are currently performing well in the market and accurately determining the buying opportunities through various technical indicators. According to Cheong Hong Yuan's viewpoint, only by combining technical analysis with market facts can one achieve maximum returns with minimal risk.

    Cheong Hong Yuan continues to delve into the current market situation, focusing on analyzing the differences between the Fed's policy expectations and the market's actual reactions. He points out that although the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 92 basis points next year, this forecast is far higher than the official expectation of 50 basis points, which significant deviation may lead to decision-making biases. Cheong Hong Yuan mentions that when formulating strategies, investors should pay more attention to the Fed's actual actions rather than relying solely on market forecasts.

    When analyzing the application of the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy" in this environment, Cheong Hong Yuan emphasizes the uniqueness of this strategy in identifying buying opportunities. He suggests that by tracking the strongest performing stocks in the market and utilizing the technical indicators provided by the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy," investors can more effectively identify the best timing for entering and exiting the market. Cheong Hong Yuan states that even in the current market's overly optimistic expectations for a shift in the Fed's policy, this strategy can still help investors seize investment opportunities while avoiding unnecessary risks.

    Regarding the mentioned viewpoint of "market expectations may reduce the possibility of policy shifts," Cheong Hong Yuan offers his own insights. He believes that investors should be wary of the financial conditions easing caused by market sentiment, which may affect the central bank's response to inflation. He suggests that the market's optimistic sentiment may inadvertently relax financial conditions, thereby impacting the Fed's strategies to address inflation.

    Cheong Hong Yuan further analyzes recent US economic data, pointing out that these data release signals of the economy entering the late cycle. He mentions that although the US non-farm payroll data cooled down beyond expectations, which may prompt the market to anticipate a Fed rate cut, in the situation where inflation remains significantly higher than the target, a true policy shift may still require more time. Therefore, Cheong Hong Yuan suggests that investors should remain cautious in the current market environment, not overly relying on market expectations, and should use technical analysis tools such as the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy" to assist decision-making. At the same time, he also reminds investors to pay attention to market dynamics and be prepared to deal with potential impacts of policy shifts.

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