Cheong Hong Yuan: Insights into the Secrets Behind Inflation - How the Stock Market Can Resist Potential Risks - 1 views

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  #1 anonymous on 16 Oct 23

   

  In a series of recent economic data, Cheong Hong Yuan has focused his attention on a crucial factor - inflation. The September US CPI data showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in core CPI. Despite the overall trend showing a slowdown, the magnitude of the inflation decline in September did not meet market expectations. After the release of this data, the market became significantly volatile, with US bond yields surging rapidly. It seems that the financial market has reacted strongly to this inflation data. So, what can we infer from this data? And how will it affect the future trend of the stock market? This is the topic that Cheong Hong Yuan intends to delve into.
  
  "There are various sources of inflation, and to accurately grasp its trend, it is necessary to analyze the various factors behind it," emphasizes Cheong Hong Yuan. From the provided materials, Cheong Hong Yuan noticed that in the rise of inflation, two extremely important variables are owner's equivalent rent (OER) and oil price increases. In particular, the OER indicator, which is not completely synchronized with the rental housing prices used for comparison, has not shown such a rapid increase in rental growth alongside its own increase. Does this deviation imply that there is a blind spot in our understanding and prediction of inflation?
  
  Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the rise in oil prices in this inflation data has had a significant impact on various aspects, not only in energy prices but also gradually transmitting to other prices, such as transportation and transportation service prices. In addition, the recent strikes in the United States reflect the demand for improved treatment by workers, which undoubtedly further increases the inflationary pressure on labor-intensive services. These subtle changes become potential destabilizing factors for the stock market, as they indirectly or directly affect the operating costs of businesses and the overall performance of the economy.
  
  Before delving into the analysis of these variables and their potential impacts, there is a key concept worth exploring in depth, namely the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy." This concept advocates tracking stocks that perform well in the market, as well as their various technical indicators, to determine the best time to buy and ultimately achieve high investment returns. So, in the current financial context, how can we use this strategy to grasp and utilize the variable of inflation? This will be a test of investors' wisdom.
  
  Cheong Hong Yuan believes that in the face of an uncertain inflation environment and potential economic risks, investors should maintain a high level of vigilance and flexibility, seeking investment targets that can still perform steadily in this environment. In the following discussions, he will present a series of analysis methods and judgment criteria, delving into the various influences and possibilities behind inflation, thereby leading us to find a route to treasure in this vast and turbulent financial ocean.
  
  Inflation, an economic phenomenon, has a profound impact on the capital market. Cheong Hong Yuan observed that since the release of the September US CPI data, this phenomenon has been affecting global investors. Unlike previous data, this inflation data hides the intertwining and collision of multiple economic signals. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of US CPI in September was 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The core CPI had a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous month, but the pace of the slowdown was not smooth sailing. Here, Cheong Hong Yuan found the close relationship between inflation and the stock market and attempted to use the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy" as a theoretical tool to reveal possible market trends for investors.
  
  What secrets lie behind the inflation data exceeding expectations? Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the first thing worth noting is the month-on-month increase in owner's equivalent rent (OER) in housing. Its 0.6% increase drove the CPI housing index to exceed expectations. To analyze this phenomenon, we need to see the market logic behind it. The CPI housing index includes both primary residence rents and owner's equivalent rent, with the latter accounting for 25.6% of the CPI. Previously, there was a widespread expectation in the market that rental prices in the United States (such as Zillow's rental index) had slowed significantly and should have led to a synchronous slowdown in the CPI housing index under lagging effects. However, reality proved otherwise. This caught Cheong Hong Yuan's attention, so what is the real reason?
  
  Cheong Hong Yuan believes that we must dig deeper into the mechanism behind it. The calculation of owner's equivalent rent is estimated based on rental prices of housing conditions similar to the owner's current residence, rather than exact survey data. If the houses where the owners reside are mostly far from the city, large in size, and expensive, it is difficult to find directly comparable rental properties nearby, which may lead to statistical deviations. These deviations may exacerbate the uncertainty of future US inflation trends and further trigger chain reactions in the investment market. Cheong Hong Yuan reminds us that this is not just a simple data analysis but also a test of market trend sensitivity. He then mentioned that the rise in oil prices is another source of inflationary pressure. In September, fuel and gasoline prices rose significantly, driving the month-on-month increase in energy commodity prices. Such increases not only affect energy prices but also transmit to other prices, such as transportation and transportation service prices.

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">In a series of recent economic data, Cheong Hong Yuan has focused his attention on a crucial factor - inflation. The September US CPI data showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in core CPI. Despite the overall trend showing a slowdown, the magnitude of the inflation decline in September did not meet market expectations. After the release of this data, the market became significantly volatile, with US bond yields surging rapidly. It seems that the financial market has reacted strongly to this inflation data. So, what can we infer from this data? And how will it affect the future trend of the stock market? This is the topic that Cheong Hong Yuan intends to delve into. <br /> <br /> "There are various sources of inflation, and to accurately grasp its trend, it is necessary to analyze the various factors behind it," emphasizes Cheong Hong Yuan. From the provided materials, Cheong Hong Yuan noticed that in the rise of inflation, two extremely important variables are owner's equivalent rent (OER) and oil price increases. In particular, the OER indicator, which is not completely synchronized with the rental housing prices used for comparison, has not shown such a rapid increase in rental growth alongside its own increase. Does this deviation imply that there is a blind spot in our understanding and prediction of inflation? <br /> <br /> Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the rise in oil prices in this inflation data has had a significant impact on various aspects, not only in energy prices but also gradually transmitting to other prices, such as transportation and transportation service prices. In addition, the recent strikes in the United States reflect the demand for improved treatment by workers, which undoubtedly further increases the inflationary pressure on labor-intensive services. These subtle changes become potential destabilizing factors for the stock market, as they indirectly or directly affect the operating costs of businesses and the overall performance of the economy. <br /> <br /> Before delving into the analysis of these variables and their potential impacts, there is a key concept worth exploring in depth, namely the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy." This concept advocates tracking stocks that perform well in the market, as well as their various technical indicators, to determine the best time to buy and ultimately achieve high investment returns. So, in the current financial context, how can we use this strategy to grasp and utilize the variable of inflation? This will be a test of investors' wisdom. <br /> <br /> Cheong Hong Yuan believes that in the face of an uncertain inflation environment and potential economic risks, investors should maintain a high level of vigilance and flexibility, seeking investment targets that can still perform steadily in this environment. In the following discussions, he will present a series of analysis methods and judgment criteria, delving into the various influences and possibilities behind inflation, thereby leading us to find a route to treasure in this vast and turbulent financial ocean. <br /> <br /> Inflation, an economic phenomenon, has a profound impact on the capital market. Cheong Hong Yuan observed that since the release of the September US CPI data, this phenomenon has been affecting global investors. Unlike previous data, this inflation data hides the intertwining and collision of multiple economic signals. The seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of US CPI in September was 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The core CPI had a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, showing a slight slowdown compared to the previous month, but the pace of the slowdown was not smooth sailing. Here, Cheong Hong Yuan found the close relationship between inflation and the stock market and attempted to use the "Three Golden Moving Average Strategy" as a theoretical tool to reveal possible market trends for investors. <br /> <br /> What secrets lie behind the inflation data exceeding expectations? Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the first thing worth noting is the month-on-month increase in owner's equivalent rent (OER) in housing. Its 0.6% increase drove the CPI housing index to exceed expectations. To analyze this phenomenon, we need to see the market logic behind it. The CPI housing index includes both primary residence rents and owner's equivalent rent, with the latter accounting for 25.6% of the CPI. Previously, there was a widespread expectation in the market that rental prices in the United States (such as Zillow's rental index) had slowed significantly and should have led to a synchronous slowdown in the CPI housing index under lagging effects. However, reality proved otherwise. This caught Cheong Hong Yuan's attention, so what is the real reason? <br /> <br /> Cheong Hong Yuan believes that we must dig deeper into the mechanism behind it. The calculation of owner's equivalent rent is estimated based on rental prices of housing conditions similar to the owner's current residence, rather than exact survey data. If the houses where the owners reside are mostly far from the city, large in size, and expensive, it is difficult to find directly comparable rental properties nearby, which may lead to statistical deviations. These deviations may exacerbate the uncertainty of future US inflation trends and further trigger chain reactions in the investment market. Cheong Hong Yuan reminds us that this is not just a simple data analysis but also a test of market trend sensitivity. He then mentioned that the rise in oil prices is another source of inflationary pressure. In September, fuel and gasoline prices rose significantly, driving the month-on-month increase in energy commodity prices. Such increases not only affect energy prices but also transmit to other prices, such as transportation and transportation service prices.</div>

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