Cheong Hong Yuan: In-depth Analysis of the Latest Trends in US Bonds and Stocks - 1 views

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  #1 anonymous on 25 Oct 23

   

  Recently, there have been shocking changes in the US bond and stock markets, leading many seasoned investors and strategists to adjust their positions. Among them, two giants in the financial sector have attracted particular attention: Bill Ackman, known as the "pandemic warrior," and Bill Gross, also known as the "bond king." Their latest positions on US bonds have undergone significant changes, undoubtedly sending a clear signal to the market. Cheong Hong Yuan believes that in order to better understand the true reasons behind this shift, a thorough exploration is necessary.
  
  Cheong Hong Yuan believes that Ackman and Gross' views on the historic collapse of US bonds are not singular, and their decisions consider multiple factors. Especially against the backdrop of rising global risks and a slowdown in the US economy, both of these financial giants have taken a bearish stance on long-term US bonds. However, they are now shifting towards a more optimistic strategy.
  
  Ackman stated on social media that he has closed his short positions on long-term US bonds. Gross, on the other hand, stated that he expects a recession in the US before the end of the year and is therefore buying short-term interest rate futures. Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the reasons behind these changes may be related to two factors: firstly, the recent rapid rise in US bond yields, which has reduced the profitability of short positions; secondly, their prediction of a future economic recession, which implies a more optimistic outlook for the medium to long-term trends of US bonds.
  
  In addition, another important strategist in the market, Hartnett, from Bank of America, has expressed new views on US stocks. Hartnett believes that the US stock market is currently too bearish and has triggered a "contrarian buy signal" in the bull-bear index. Cheong Hong Yuan points out that this means there may be a short-term rebound in US stocks, but whether it can be sustained remains highly uncertain.
  
  Regarding this, Cheong Hong Yuan believes that Hartnett's views are based on valid reasons, especially considering his past successful predictions. However, at the same time, Cheong Hong Yuan issues a warning that there are still many variables in the market, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the global economic slowdown, etc., which may affect the trends of US stocks.
  
  The trends in the US bond market have attracted widespread attention from global investors. Behind this, two major events have contributed to increased market volatility: firstly, prominent short-sellers such as Bill Ackman and Bill Gross have retreated; secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement last week, implying a possible slowdown in monetary policy.
  
  Cheong Hong Yuan believes that the impact of these events is interconnected. Firstly, the pandemic warrior Bill Ackman closing his short positions on long-term US bonds is based on the anticipation of increased global risks and a slowdown in the US economy. Bill Gross buying short-term interest rate futures is also a prediction of a possible recession in the US before the end of the year. The actions of these two investment gurus indicate their pessimistic expectations for the US economy in the medium term.
  
  From a technical analysis perspective, Cheong Hong Yuan mentions that the rapid decline in US bond yields actually reflects market concerns about the long-term US economy. The 30-year US bond yield has dropped 21 basis points from its peak of 5.18%, and the 10-year US bond yield has dropped 19 basis points from 5%. This rapid change indicates a shift in market expectations.
  
  Powell's statement also has significant implications for the market. He stated that the rise in long-term bond yields has "at the margin" eased the pressure of tightening monetary policy, which actually suggests that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates multiple times in the short term. The subsequent actions of traders also confirm the market's interpretation of this statement. Open short positions in federal funds futures contracts have significantly declined, indicating that traders are no longer optimistic about multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the short term.
  
  As for the US stock market, Cheong Hong Yuan states that the views of Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street, are worth paying attention to. Although Hartnett had a rather pessimistic view of US stocks in June this year, he recently stated that due to excessive bearishness in the market, there may be a short-term rebound in US stocks. In fact, Bank of America's bull-bear index has dropped from 2.2 to 1.9, which is usually seen as a signal of a possible short-term rebound in US stocks. This "contrarian buy" signal has proven its accuracy multiple times in history, resulting in an average 5.4% increase in US stocks over the next three months.
  
  Combining the technical indicators of the "Three Golden Moving Averages Strategy," Cheong Hong Yuan suggests that there may be buying opportunities for some stocks in the current US stock market at relatively low levels. However, investors still need to be cautious in their operations and make comprehensive judgments based on technical indicators and macroeconomic data.
  
  However, whether it is US bonds or US stocks, Cheong Hong Yuan emphasizes that short-term market fluctuations cannot fully represent long-term trends. The current situation, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the volatility of the global economy, requires investors to remain highly vigilant and make adjustments based on actual circumstances.

   

  <div class="cArrow"> </div><div class="cContentInner">Recently, there have been shocking changes in the US bond and stock markets, leading many seasoned investors and strategists to adjust their positions. Among them, two giants in the financial sector have attracted particular attention: Bill Ackman, known as the "pandemic warrior," and Bill Gross, also known as the "bond king." Their latest positions on US bonds have undergone significant changes, undoubtedly sending a clear signal to the market. Cheong Hong Yuan believes that in order to better understand the true reasons behind this shift, a thorough exploration is necessary. <br /> <br /> Cheong Hong Yuan believes that Ackman and Gross' views on the historic collapse of US bonds are not singular, and their decisions consider multiple factors. Especially against the backdrop of rising global risks and a slowdown in the US economy, both of these financial giants have taken a bearish stance on long-term US bonds. However, they are now shifting towards a more optimistic strategy. <br /> <br /> Ackman stated on social media that he has closed his short positions on long-term US bonds. Gross, on the other hand, stated that he expects a recession in the US before the end of the year and is therefore buying short-term interest rate futures. Cheong Hong Yuan mentioned that the reasons behind these changes may be related to two factors: firstly, the recent rapid rise in US bond yields, which has reduced the profitability of short positions; secondly, their prediction of a future economic recession, which implies a more optimistic outlook for the medium to long-term trends of US bonds. <br /> <br /> In addition, another important strategist in the market, Hartnett, from Bank of America, has expressed new views on US stocks. Hartnett believes that the US stock market is currently too bearish and has triggered a "contrarian buy signal" in the bull-bear index. Cheong Hong Yuan points out that this means there may be a short-term rebound in US stocks, but whether it can be sustained remains highly uncertain. <br /> <br /> Regarding this, Cheong Hong Yuan believes that Hartnett's views are based on valid reasons, especially considering his past successful predictions. However, at the same time, Cheong Hong Yuan issues a warning that there are still many variables in the market, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the global economic slowdown, etc., which may affect the trends of US stocks. <br /> <br /> The trends in the US bond market have attracted widespread attention from global investors. Behind this, two major events have contributed to increased market volatility: firstly, prominent short-sellers such as Bill Ackman and Bill Gross have retreated; secondly, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statement last week, implying a possible slowdown in monetary policy. <br /> <br /> Cheong Hong Yuan believes that the impact of these events is interconnected. Firstly, the pandemic warrior Bill Ackman closing his short positions on long-term US bonds is based on the anticipation of increased global risks and a slowdown in the US economy. Bill Gross buying short-term interest rate futures is also a prediction of a possible recession in the US before the end of the year. The actions of these two investment gurus indicate their pessimistic expectations for the US economy in the medium term. <br /> <br /> From a technical analysis perspective, Cheong Hong Yuan mentions that the rapid decline in US bond yields actually reflects market concerns about the long-term US economy. The 30-year US bond yield has dropped 21 basis points from its peak of 5.18%, and the 10-year US bond yield has dropped 19 basis points from 5%. This rapid change indicates a shift in market expectations. <br /> <br /> Powell's statement also has significant implications for the market. He stated that the rise in long-term bond yields has "at the margin" eased the pressure of tightening monetary policy, which actually suggests that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates multiple times in the short term. The subsequent actions of traders also confirm the market's interpretation of this statement. Open short positions in federal funds futures contracts have significantly declined, indicating that traders are no longer optimistic about multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the short term. <br /> <br /> As for the US stock market, Cheong Hong Yuan states that the views of Hartnett, the most accurate analyst on Wall Street, are worth paying attention to. Although Hartnett had a rather pessimistic view of US stocks in June this year, he recently stated that due to excessive bearishness in the market, there may be a short-term rebound in US stocks. In fact, Bank of America's bull-bear index has dropped from 2.2 to 1.9, which is usually seen as a signal of a possible short-term rebound in US stocks. This "contrarian buy" signal has proven its accuracy multiple times in history, resulting in an average 5.4% increase in US stocks over the next three months. <br /> <br /> Combining the technical indicators of the "Three Golden Moving Averages Strategy," Cheong Hong Yuan suggests that there may be buying opportunities for some stocks in the current US stock market at relatively low levels. However, investors still need to be cautious in their operations and make comprehensive judgments based on technical indicators and macroeconomic data. <br /> <br /> However, whether it is US bonds or US stocks, Cheong Hong Yuan emphasizes that short-term market fluctuations cannot fully represent long-term trends. The current situation, such as the conflict between Israel and Hamas and the volatility of the global economy, requires investors to remain highly vigilant and make adjustments based on actual circumstances.</div>

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