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Ed Webb

Indictment of Trump associate threatens UAE lobbying success - by James m. Dorsey - The Turbulent World of middle East Soccer - 1 views

jamesmdorsey.substack.com/...t-of-trump-associate-threatens

UAE KSA Saudi US USA lobbying MB ikhwan crime Trump Islamism diplomacy Turkey Indonesia Egypt

shared by Ed Webb on 24 Jul 21 - No Cached
  • The indictment of businessman Thomas  J. Barrack, who maintained close ties to UAE Crown Prince mohammed bin Zayed while serving as an influential advisor in 2016 to then-presidential candidate Trump and chair of mr. Trump’s inauguration committee once he won the 2016 election, puts at risk the UAE’s relationship with the Biden administration.It also threatens to reduce the UAE’s return on a massive investment in lobbying and public relations that made it a darling in Washington during the last four years.
  • A 2019 study concluded that Emirati clients hired 20 US lobbying firms to do their bidding at a cost of US$20 million, including US$600,000 in election campaign contributions -- one of the largest, if not the largest expenditure by a single state on Washington lobbying and influence peddling.
  • UAE lobbying in the United States, in contrast to France and Austria, failed to persuade the Trump administration to embrace one of the Emirates’ core policy objectives: a US crackdown on political Islam with a focus on the muslim Brotherhood. UAE Crown Prince mohammed views political Islam and the Brotherhood that embraces the principle of elections as an existential threat to the survival of his regime.
Ed Webb

A New Operation in Syria? - Carnegie Middle East Center - Carnegie EndowMent for International Peace - 0 views

carnegie-mec.org/87248

USA US Syria Russia Turkey NATO Kurds refugees military Ukraine analysis

shared by Ed Webb on 09 Jun 22 - Cached
  • Ankara controls large swathes of territory in northern Syria, but its previous attempts at establishing a continuous 30-kilometer-deep safety zone along the entirety of the Turkish-Syrian border have so far failed. Turkish troops and their affiliates still do not control a stretch of around 70 kilometers east and west of the city of Kobani, as well as a larger portion of territory around the city of Qamishli, all the way to the Tigris River in the east
  • Ankara may be calculating that Russia, otherwise busy with the protracted invasion of Ukraine, may not have the time and resources to prevent a new Turkish incursion, nor the political legitimacy to object to it given its own operations in Donbas
  • With Erdoğan facing dramatically unfavorable preelection polls and a dire economic situation, including sky-rocketing inflation and declining levels of foreign investment, his temptation to rally voters around the flag and silence criticism from the opposition coalition on a subject of national interest is obvious
  • ...5 more annotations...
  • always eager to present itself as a power independent from Russia and the West
  • if the operation proves to be successful and sustainable, it would reinforce Ankara’s plan to “voluntarily repatriate” Syrian refugees from Turkey
  • The United States maintain a small contingent of 900 troops in northeastern Syria, mainly to prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State. Washington’s cooperation with the YPG in this region has been one of the thorniest issues in bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States. A new Turkish operation would probably clash with U.S. interests on the ground, further aggravating the diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies over the sale of U.S. warplanes, relations with Russia, and NATO enlargement.
  • a majority of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey are Sunni Arabs, so by relocating them to northern Syria Turkey would achieve the strategic objective of diluting the Kurdish populations living there
  • other Syrian areas already under Turkey’s control show signs of a lasting presence. Local administrative and security structures are appointed by Turkey, public services such as health and post offices are run by Turkey, and the de facto currency is the Turkish lira
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