Despite their optimistic rhetoric,
Iranian officials realize now that they are likely to gain far less than they
had hoped from the Arab uprisings. As their ally Syria crumbles and the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) becomes increasingly hostile, Egypt could be its best
and only hope for a new Arab friend in the short-term.
But Egypt is less interested in playing along. Not only are
the two countries seriously divided over the Syria crisis, but the cost of
restoring ties with Iran for Egypt would be great. Not only would this alienate
the United States and Israel, but also relations with Gulf states, particularly
Saudi Arabia, would be severely damaged. And Morsi clearly understands the
importance of maintaining good ties in the Gulf -- aid is at stake. In fact,
his first diplomatic mission after he became president was to Saudi Arabia on
July 10. The purpose of the visit was to secure aid to replenish Egypt's
diminishing currency reserves. Iran, faced with crippling international
sanctions, would find it hard to compete with the Saudis in the economic aid
arena.