Al-Qaeda is not really active in Afghanistan
anymore, and it is not equivalent with the Taliban (either the Afghan
or Pakistani variants). Al-Qaeda Central still matters, but the
decentralized network and ideological narrative around the world no
longer depends on it. Nothing the U.S. does or does not do in
Afghanistan will defeat al-Qaeda -- the failure of that movement will
happen for its own reasons, if it happens (as it already largely has in
the Arab world).
The moment where Obama recognized this reality was both reassuring and
terrifying: when he mentioned Somalia and Yemen. He understands that
Afghanistan is not the only, or even the primary, location where those
motivated by al-Qaeda's ideas can operate. But if the next move is to
bring governance and stability, and counter-terrorism and COIN, to
every ungoverned space on Earth -- or even every Muslim-majority
ungoverned space on Earth -- then we are truly facing bankruptcy.
Intellectually, financially, militarily, and politically. We can't
afford to do this in Afghanistan. We certainly can't afford to do it in
Somalia and Yemen... even if we should, which I strongly doubt.