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Ewa Wink

Capital Weather Gang - Forecasting hurricanes: Part 1 - 1 views

voices.washingtonpost.com/...casting_hurricanes_part_1.html

hurricane Hazards and disasters predictions

shared by Ewa Wink on 14 Nov 11 - No Cached
  • Ewa Wink on 14 Nov 11
     
    Posted at 11:35 AM ET, 08/19/2010 Forecasting hurricanes: Part 1 By Steve Tracton How good (or bad) are today's forecasts? * Sun & warmth: Full Forecast | Yesterday's rain totals * This is the first of a two-part series on hurricane forecasting. Part 1 details how reliable forecasts are expected to be when (and if?) the 2010 tropical season finally picks up steam. Part 2, to appear next week, will look at ongoing research into the development of tropical systems and the prospects for improved forecasts. Hurricane Fran, Sept. 5, 1996. Satellite image by NASA. As reported in an earlier post by CWG's Greg Postel, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest update of its 2010 seasonal hurricane forecast calls for a significant chance that the remainder of the season will be very active, perhaps one of the most active on record. Whatever the number of tropical storms and hurricanes -- collectively referred to here as tropical cyclones (TC) -- most seasonal hurricane forecasts justifiably caution that it's impossible to reliably forecast when and where an individual storm might develop, nor its intensity and whether it will make landfall, before a storm even exists. The specifics of genesis, strength, size and track of TCs fall in the domain of daily weather. As such, predictability is limited in theory and practice from a few hours to about a week or two at most (no one really knows for sure). These specifics, of course, are precisely those which are required by emergency managers who, for example, must decide if and when to order evacuations, and those which ultimately determine the impact of a TC on lives and property. So, what are the current capabilities and limitations in the accuracy and utility of TC forecasts? The foundation of the TC prediction and warning process is the track forecast. If the track forecast is off, so too will be predictions of other parameters, such as wind speed and direction, rainfall, and storm surge relative to landf
Matt Podbury

Home - 3 views

streva.ac.uk/home

Vulnerability Risk and risk assessment Adjustments Responses

shared by Matt Podbury on 19 Feb 13 - No Cached
  • Matt Podbury on 19 Feb 13
     
    STREVA is an innovative interdisciplinary project that aims to reduce the negative consequences of volcanic activity on people and assets. The project works collaboratively across different disciplines to develop and apply a practical and adaptable volcanic risk assessment framework.
Matt Podbury

Disasters: The Differing Response to the Australian and Pakistan Floods -... - StumbleUpon - 2 views

www.stumbleupon.com/...ster-gap-between-rich-and-poor

response differing disasters freshwater ib_geog2009 floods vulnerability management impact measuring

shared by Matt Podbury on 04 Jan 11 - No Cached
  • Matt Podbury on 04 Jan 11
     
    A Tale of Two Floods Shows the Disaster Gap Between Rich and Poor Pakistan and Australia
Richard Allaway

Tribe returns to old ways on Pinatubo / 1991 eruption drove Aeta away from volcano - 0 views

www.sfgate.com/...article.cgi

ib_geog2009 hazards vulnerability

shared by Richard Allaway on 10 Jan 10 - Cached
  • Tarukan was home to hundreds of families of a Filipino tribe called the Aeta
  • 50 villagers opted to come home to relive a lifestyle they thought they would never see again.
  • The 50,000-member tribe has long survived along the slopes of the volcano by fishing, hunting wild boar, deer, birds and mountain cats and farming beans, rice, sweet potatoes and root crops.
  • ...2 more annotations...
  • Forced to flee to the lowland valleys below, the Aeta learned a life far different from their mountain habitat. They shed traditional loincloths, sarongs and bare feet for Western dress and shoes, ate from canned foods donated by relief agencies and slept in cramped resettlement centers that resembled refugee camps.
  • In Tarukan, they have built bamboo huts and cleared fields for crops. Papaya and mango trees have been planted. Wild boar and birds are coming back and the acidity of the soil has declined, allowing farmers to resume planting.
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