This article is about increased foreign direct investment to China despite its weakening economic growth. Not only does China receive inflowing FDI, but it also invests outflowing FDI into other places such as Japan. The investment comes even as China's economy show signs of slowing from the stellar growth rates of years past as the government looks to shift the emphasis to structural reform rather than growth for its own sake. One pillar of the reform drive is to make the economy driven more by the service sector and consumers, ending its traditional reliance on investment and exports for growth. The obvious reason why foreign-based MNCs want to invest into China is because of increasing sales or decreasing their profits. The question is what kind of pull factors China has to attract such high levels of FDI. Stable economic environment, political environment, low labour costs are primal reasons.
This article offers a short analysis of the Chinese export promotion: outward-oriented strategy to bolster economic growth with some causes for its slowing down. But export promotion is not sufficient to promote development and to ensure the sustainability of the growth-led process. Although China is a star of export- or outward-oriented strategy, there are some possible disadvantages as well, including dependence on foreign demand or worse income equality or environmental degradation as well as undermined care for social safety net. Export-oriented growth is a perfect example in economics that there are no absolutes and that everything is not white nor black but gray.
"At the heart of India's skewered development story lies the paradox between India's phenomenal GDP growth and its abysmal score on human development." And this is exactly what captures the idea of HDI as a composite indicator of economic development. India is the proof that despite enormous economic growth (GDP growth), there has been no economic development. Although HDI has its drawbacks and presents a skewed image of the reality, the educational and health perspective each correctly depicts the Indian situation, making India one of the countries with the least HDI.
This article is just one out of many which focus not on economic development but on economic growth. I have to admit that I am occasionally annoyed by the fact that most emphasis is always put on the pure increase in the real GDP or share of an industry relative to the country's economic performance. I think we should much more often apply a more expansive review of the economic growth, which is economic development. The latter tells you a lot more about the health, education, and income factors and can serve a very useful purpose in the context of what I call "holistic growth" that comprises different elements, not just purely economic performance as such. While I am happy to hear that Switzerland is doing great and its largely highly skilled workforce based economy is in the expanding phase, I am much more eager to hear how people have more disposable income, better healthcare system,... which is fortunately the case for Switzerland, however, also the perpetual growth in Switzerland has been faced with an increasing fear of possible rising unemployment rates.
Venezuela has joined Mercosur, six years after first applying to join the South American trading bloc. This article showcases features of economic integration, in this case customs union, which is a free trade area where members establish a common tariff and agree to other trade policies with non-member countries. Well, this article is particularly valuable also because it gives you that well-known sense of economic reality as a genuinely different economic world than that described in the economic theory. Countries cluster together for a mutual advantage, however, as opposed to comparative advantage concept and other highly cherished theoretical reasons, it always comes down to natural resources as vital sources of geopolitical influence, for instance oil, which is abundant in Venezuela. This can reasonably be inferred from the following quote: "Brazil said Mercosur was "also positioning itself as a global energy power in renewable and non-renewable resources". In the end, the disadvantages of economic integration are given, highlighting the fact that in economics there are perpetual advantages as well as disadvantages (influx of cheap agricultural products, little influence in decision-making processes). But then again, the disadvantages have to be explained within advantages in order to grasp the holistic situation (e.g. influx of cheap agricultural products forces Venezuelan farmers to cut down on their costs and improve on efficiency).
This article talks about Britain and its problematic exports with subsequent trade deficit problems. Interestingly enough, university courses fees are considered exports as well (money inflow). Britain is a country which is immensely integrated in the global trade flows, but they have a problem of trade deficit. "Part of the reason is the slowdown in continental Europe and America, which take 54% and 17% respectively of British exports. Another is the gradual depletion of North Sea oil and gas. A third is that Britain's strength is in services rather than in the raw materials, machine tools and handbags that emerging markets crave." This running trade deficit can amass huge problems and according to the article [http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10427783/Britain-to-have-worst-2014-trade-deficit-in-industrial-world-on-EU-forecasts.html] Britain will have to tackle it by using expenditure-reducing policies, expenditure-switching policies or supply-side policies.
The U.S. trade deficit widened slightly in August as exports slipped, suggesting trade will probably not be much of a boost to growth in the third quarter. The import growth is weak and consistent with sluggish domestic demand. So in fact this article is about the goods and services account under the current account. The possible reasons for such trade deficit may be a decrease of foreign demand for US exports, decreased domestic interest rates and speculators' anticipations for the US dollar to rise, which means that there will be a tendency for the price of US dollar to appreciate. This leads to even less competitive exports. If I look at this situation from another perspective, more currency flowed out for imports than it flowed in for exports, creating the debit item and exacerbating the current account.
This article offers a glimpse of recent fluctuations in foreign exchange market. I will narrow my focus down to the USD. If the U.S. Federal Reserve decides to keep up the spending on Treasuries or mortgage-backed securities, this means that the supply of USD on foreign exchange market will be sustained or perhaps even increase. This means that should the demand for USD stay constant, its value will depreciate. However in the end, the expectations of investors concerning the future growth/future path of the exchange make up arguably one the most important share of a currency's movement.
Pound sterling / euro exchange rate has increased, meaning that pound sterling appreciates in value. That is due to a run of good economic data and Britain's industrial output in June rose much faster than forecast and hit its quickest pace in two years. I believe demand for sterling, which reflects the value of its exports of goods and services rose because of the peak tourist season in Britain (urgency to buy foreign currency) and increased industrial activity. However, as far as many economic analysts are concerned, sterling will continue to weaken in a long run...
This article discusses the controversies involved in the sale of wildlife and a global ban in the trade of a species when it is threatened with over-exploitation. The author relates to trade bans as something that do more harm than good. This is perfectly illustrated by the following quote: "Combine inelastic demand, lack of substitutes, scarcity and open access to habitats with a trade ban, Dr Conrad argues, and a black market will flourish." Some of these conclusions also relate to arguments against protection we did in class, such as the limited options that consumers and firms have.
This article is about the reluctance to increase quotas for low-price sugar imports, due to the increased domestic production. Therefore from our IB Economic Theory, arguments against trade protection are used, specifically because it breeds inefficiency and leads to higher prices for consumers.Favorable weather in major sugar cane- and sugarbeet-growing areas are expected to lift production this season, as well as those in Mexico, which will be of benefit to the US since they are in the North American Free Trade Agreement and the US can import as much as it wants without any trade barriers to satisfy the domestic demand, although it is said that supplies presently outpace demand.
This article has no direct correlation to supply side of an economy, as it mainly talks about Cypriot economy's bank crisis - credit crunch, predictions on GDP and changing patterns of banking (limitations to every-day withdrawals from ATMs). But the reason I chose this article is that they should aim at increasing the production side of an economy and so aggregate supply, shifting the LRAS curve to the right, and, in addition to that, structural reforms of the economy which overly depends on the banking. Particularly, Cyprus should undertake interventionist supply side policies, such as investments in infrastructure - roads, railways, harbours, airports and telecommunications all serve to lower production costs of all economic agents in a country. Or perhaps investments in technology and industrial policies which would increase the productive capacity of an economy.
This article talks mainly about several problems affecting monetary policy. Among those are instability to the financial system, a sudden rise in interest rates and inflation. Presently, Fed is using easy monetary policy to increase AD. There is also quantitative easing mentioned in the article, which refers to purchases by the central bank of long-term bonds or $85 billion a month in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities so that the money supply increases. Again, the major problem related to this Fed strategy is inflationary pressure (also by selling $1.1 trillion mortgage-backed securities)...
Fiscal policy is the set of policies relating to government's spending and taxation rates. Military spending is a part of government spending and is closely related to domestic industries, particularly in the U.S. The U.S. government is lowering the military budget, therefore decreasing aggregate demand both through government spending and through implications to other industries interwoven with military. So this is deflationary fiscal policy, which is reducing U.S. military power on a global scale.
Increasing aggregate demand helps China, which is currently operating with a deflationary gap, to use its economic resources to a greater extent. The increase in real output is an increase in real GDP, so economic growth is currently in progress. However, the current situation is a very fragile one, according to the chief economist at ANZ in China: ""The current economic rebound remains fragile, and could falter with tightened monetary policy conditions." So it is now up to Beijing's monetary policy makers to sustain this economic growth...
Consumer prices rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, compared with 2.7 percent in January, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The two major reasons for persistent increase in average price level are higher energy bills and a weaker pound. Housing, water, electricity and gas added 0.11 percentage point to annual inflation in February - the biggest upward impact. Investor confidence unexpectedly rose to a three-year high of 48.5 in March from 48.2 in February, which means higher aggregate demand and demand-pull inflation.
Fall in demand for durable goods (orders for durable goods in the US fell 5.2% in January) means also fall in aggregate demand. Falling aggregate demand - the total spending on goods and services implies firms will start to lay off workers and unemployment rates are likely to rise. According to the business cycle, at current point there is a negative output gap, because economy is producing below its long-term trend economy can sustain.
This article is essentially connected to aggregate demand (investments), but the following part can be perfectly analyzed with the this week's topic, aggregate supply: "The investment will also help U.K. energy security by reducing hydrocarbon imports at a time of higher international oil and gas prices. "Too often we've been seen as part of the problem, rather than part of the solution because production output had fallen. But we're stopping the decline and increasing output and that will have a more positive impact on the U.K. economy," Mr. Tholen told The Wall Street Journal. The higher investment in new projects and redevelopment of older fields will help bring another 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day onstream by 2017, taking output up to around 2 million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2017 or earlier. The higher investment in new projects and redevelopment of older fields will help bring another 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day onstream by 2017, taking output up to around 2 million barrels of oil and gas a day by 2017 or earlier."
High international oil and gas prices mean higher average costs of production - change in the costs of raw materials, because oil and gas are widely used in most production processes. This is the reason for the shift of the SRAS inwards. However, higher price level means that the oil production and oil-transforming industries will increase their output. This is also great for the sake of price of imports, which are relatively too high, allowing domestic industries to decrease their average costs of production, meaning that SRAS will increase. So we should consider effects of both aspects and add them up in order to get a real picture (overall effect of current oil and gas prices). Investments are shifting the LRAS curve to the right, because there are likely to be improvements in the quality of the factors of production (technological advancements, discovery of new resources and re-establishing the past (oil) fields,
As the article states: "The world's largest economies took a step toward common global guidelines for exchange-rate policies with a pledge Saturday to refrain from targeting their currency policies to gain a competitive trading advantage." This is well-involved in this week's topic, which is aggregate demand. Particularly, this article refers to its component, net exports (export revenue minus import expenditure, or simply X-M) and then its subsidiary component, changes in exchange rates. If a country's exchange rate becomes stronger, then this makes the country's exports more expensive to foreigners and vice versa. Manipulating with exchange rates can bring a certain country substantial trading advantage and this is what G-20 wants to overcome and allow free-trade market as it should be.
This article opens a question whether circular flow in Britain still operates normally, because firms do not have a wide access to the savings of households (banks) anymore, which leads to the lack of investment (injections to circular flow). This also affects GDP as expenditure method involves spending by firms and means less or even negative GDP growth rate. Lack of the investment spirit is partially present because of the firms' fear of weak demand as well. Yet the latest policies might open the tap, especially the new Funding For Lending Scheme (FFL).
