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And as Ukraine's conflict grows deeper, the reputation of the U.S. as the ultimate arbiter of the international system has yet again suffered. As with Iraq, Ukraine is a case of a violent disintegration, and there is not much Washington can do about that.

But the potential economic effects of the likely Ukrainian collapse will be devastating on Russia, even if Moscow manages to not get involved in a direct military confrontation with Kiev. The deeper Ukraine moves into a civil war, the more costly it will ultimately be for Russia to rebuild what is left of Ukraine's eastern regions. As Ukraine's largest neighbor and the international supporter of the eastern fighters, Russia won't be able to step aside.

f the international community summons the will to pressure Kiev, Moscow can be helpful in pressuring Donetsk and Luhansk to negotiate a cease-fire.

Andrei Tsygankov is professor of international relations and political science at San Francisco State University. His forthcoming book is "The Strong State in Russia: Development and Crisis" (Oxford, 2014).

resident Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who last week suggested “statehood” for parts of eastern Ukraine, ratcheted up his statements again by telling the president of the European Commission that Russia could “take Kiev in two weeks” if it wanted to.

No one will quite abandon Ukraine, but there is a recognition that there will be no confrontation with Russia on Ukrainian soil. The focus will be on NATO’s boundaries, on reassurance for Poland and the Baltic nations, and drawing a sharp distinction between those in and out of NATO.”

hey proposed a cease-fire enforced by United Nations peacekeepers, a withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian forces, partial amnesty and a guarantee that Ukraine remains unaligned.